Arizona's 1st Congressional District elections, 2012

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
2014



CongressLogo.png

Arizona's 1st Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
August 28, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Paul Gosar Republican Party
Paul Gosar.jpg

Arizona U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Arizona.png
The 1st Congressional District of Arizona held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
May 30, 2012
August 28, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Arizona's primary system is considered semi-closed. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[1]

Voter registration: Voters were required to register to vote in the primary by July 30. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9.[2]

See also: Arizona elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Paul Gosar (R), who was first elected in 2010. As a result of redistricting, Gosar opted to run for election to the 4th Congressional District.[3]

This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. The 1st District stretches along the eastern and northeastern portions of the state and includes Apache, Navajo, Greenlee, Graham, Pinal, Gila and Coconino counties.[4]

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Ann KirkpatrickGreen check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Jonathan Paton
Libertarian Party Kim Allen


August 28, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Note: The following candidates withdrew prior to the primary: Miguel Olivas.[7]

Republican Party Republican Primary

Note: The following candidates withdrew prior to the primary: Doug McKee.[7]

Libertarian Party Libertarian Primary

Note: The following candidate was removed from the ballot prior to the primary: Anthony Prowell.[10] Approveda

According to the website Daily Kos, this race was one of nine top-ballot 2012 races that contained Libertarian candidates who received more total votes than was the difference between the Democratic winner and the GOP runner-up. In this case, Kim Allen took in over 6,500 more votes than the number that separated Kirkpatrick and Paton.[11]

Election results

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnn Kirkpatrick 48.8% 122,774
     Republican Jonathon Paton 45.1% 113,594
     Libertarian Kim Allen 6.1% 15,227
Total Votes 251,595
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Race background

Competitiveness

Arizona's 1st was considered to be a Tossup according to the New York Times race ratings. The seat was open after current incumbent Paul Gosar opted to run in the 4th District.[12]

The race heated up as attacks between these two polar opposite candidates become more personal and frequent. Paton attempted to tie Kirkpatrick to President Obama and his largely unpopular healthcare policy. Meanwhile, Kirkpatrick brought back a term used against Paton in 2010, “Payday Paton,” and attacked him, saying he was a lobbyist working for special interest groups.[13]

Arizona's 1st District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[14]

Republican challenger Jonathan Paton had been included in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlighted challengers who represented the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[15]

Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for Arizona's 1st. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House."[16]

Arizona's Governor, Jan Brewer's super PAC, Jan PAC, spent money in each of Arizona's three most competitive races. In Arizona's 1st, it spent $35,567 to oppose Democratic candidate Ann Kirkpatrick.[17]

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in Arizona

The 1st District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[19][20]

Registration statistics

As of October 22, 2012, District 1 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the Arizona Secretary of State:

Arizona Congressional District 1[21]
Congressional District District Total Democrats Republicans Other & Unaffiliated Advantage Party Advantage Change in Advantage from 2010
District 1 366,529 142,158 112,536 111,935 Democratic 26.32% 12.86%
"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Partisanship figures from 2010 relating to the incumbent were unavailable for this district due to the seat being open.[22]

  • 2012: 45D / 55R
  • 2010: Unavailable

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Arizona's 1st Congressional District has a PVI of R+3, which is the 211th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 52-48 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-49 percent over John Kerry (D).[23]

Campaign contributions

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.

Ann Kirkpatrick

Wenona Benally Baldenegro

Gaither Martin

Jonathan Paton

Douglas Wade

District history

Candidate Ballot Access
Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg

Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington D.C.

2010

On November 2, 2010, Paul Gosar won election to the United States House. He defeated Ann Kirkpatrick and Nicole Patti in the general election.[37]

This is the 1st Congressional District prior to the 2010 redistricting.
U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Gosar 49.7% 112,816
     Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent 43.7% 99,233
     Libertarian Nicole Patti 6.6% 14,869
Total Votes 226,918

See also

External links

References

  1. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 2, 2014
  2. Arizona Secretary of State "Important Dates," Accessed June 29, 2012
  3. Roll Call, "Paul Gosar to Switch Districts to Seek Re-Election," January 9, 2012
  4. Arizona Redistricting "Map" Accessed July 7, 2012
  5. "Kirkpatrick to run again," Azdailysun.com, March 30, 2011
  6. "Harvard educated Navajo explores run for US Congress in Arizona," TucsonCitizen.com, April 4, 2011
  7. 7.0 7.1 Primary candidate list
  8. Explorer News "Paton announces candidacy in CD1," January 25, 2012
  9. azsos.gov "2012 Primary election full listing" accessed July 11, 2012
  10. azsos.gov "2012 Primary election full listing" accessed July 11, 2012
  11. Daily Kos, "Libertarians provided the margin for Democrats and at least nine elections," November 15, 2012
  12. New York Times "House Race Ratings," Accessed August 7, 2012
  13. Explorer News, "CD1 race remains heated between Kirkpatrick and Paton," October 31, 2012
  14. DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
  15. NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
  16. Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
  17. Bloomberg Businessweek, "Arizona’s Brewer Spends Super-PAC Cash for GOP House Candidates," October 25, 2012
  18. The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings," updated October 18, 2012
  19. Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer "Arizona's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
  20. Labels & Lists "VoterMapping software voter counts"
  21. Arizona Secretary of State, "State of Arizona Registration Report," April 23, 2012
  22. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Arizona," September 2012
  23. Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
  24. Federal Election Commission, "Ann Kirkpatrick April Quarterly," Accessed August 23, 2012
  25. Federal Election Commission, "Ann Kirkpatrick July Quarterly," Accessed August 23, 2012
  26. Federal Election Commission, "Ann Kirkpatrick Pre-Primary," Accessed August 23, 2012
  27. Federal Election Commission, "Wenona Benally Baldenegro April Quarterly," Accessed August 23, 2012
  28. Federal Election Commission, "Wenona Benally Baldenegro July Quarterly," Accessed August 23, 2012
  29. Federal Election Commission, "Gaither Martin July Quarterly," Accessed August 23, 2012
  30. Federal Election Commission, "Gaither Martin Pre-Primary," Accessed August 23, 2012
  31. Federal Election Commission, "Jonathan Paton April Quarterly," Accessed August 23, 2012
  32. Federal Election Commission, "Jonathan Paton July Quarterly," Accessed August 23, 2012
  33. Federal Election Commission, "Jonathan Paton Pre-Primary," Accessed August 23, 2012
  34. Federal Election Commission, "Douglas Wade April Quarterly," Accessed August 23, 2012
  35. Federal Election Commission, "Douglas Wade July Quarterly," Accessed August 23, 2012
  36. Federal Election Commission, "Douglas Wade Pre-Primary," Accessed August 23, 2012
  37. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"