Arizona's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

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U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnn Kirkpatrick Incumbent 52.5% 90,161
     Republican Andy Tobin 47.5% 81,638
Total Votes 171,799
Source: Arizona Secretary of State (100% reporting) Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.


2012

CongressLogo.png

Arizona's 1st Congressional District

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
August 26, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party
Ann Kirkpatrick.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss Up[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up[2]


Arizona U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9

2014 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Arizona.png
BattlegroundRace.jpg

In a race that was labeled a "toss-up," voters chose between a Democratic incumbent who argued that she had a better understanding of what locals wanted because she lived within district lines and a Republican challenger who lived just outside of the district but said residents needed a representative who would not always vote in support of President Barack Obama's policies.[3][4]

On November 4, 2014, incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick (D) defeated Republican challenger Andy Tobin in her re-election bid for the U.S. House of Representatives to represent Arizona's 1st Congressional District. Kirkpatrick said that she was victorious because “people know me. They’re common-sense people, and I think they saw through the partisan games.”[5]

Fueled by outside spending, OpenSecrets.org listed Arizona's 1st Congressional District as the seventh most expensive House race in 2014 with a total of $15,575,994 spent.[6] This race was also "one of the most competitive districts in America, where political brand is no guarantee of victory. More than most places, this part of the state has a habit of switching from Democrat to Republican and back," according to The Arizona Republic.[7]

Arizona's 1st Congressional District was one of Ballotpedia's U.S. House battleground districts in 2014 because of Kirkpatrick's vulnerability as a Democrat serving in a district that leaned Republican.[8][9] Additionally, Kirkpatrick won the seat in 2012 with a margin of victory of just 3.7 percent over Jonathan Paton (R).[10] Republican presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney also won the district in 2008 and 2012.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and Tobin tied Kirkpatrick to President Obama's policies in a strategy many Republican challengers adopted this election cycle. Kirkpatrick, unlike most Democrats who sought re-election, did not run away from Obama's policies and held strong on key Democratic issues, including the Affordable Care Act and immigration reform, which may have been why her fate was different than some of her colleagues. She explained why she stood by her vote for the Affordable Care Act, despite its unpopularity nationally. She said, “I always put my district first, and those votes reflected my district."[5]

Kirkpatrick and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) were also successful in charging Tobin, who had the backing of the Republican establishment, with hurting the state by cutting education spending as a state representative. In addition, Kirkpatrick argued that Tobin's stance on immigration would impede economic growth.[3][11][12]

Kirkpatrick also accused Tobin of not understanding the district. Kirkpatrick said, "My opponent unfortunately is one of the few candidates in Arizona who can't vote for himself because he doesn't live in the district. That's not representation.”[3] Tobin, who lived just outside of the district in Paulden, Arizona, addressed his residency issue by saying, "I know what rural Arizona needs. I don’t think they’re looking for someone who wants to get in lockstep with President [Barack] Obama and Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Reid.”[4]

Heading into the election, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, The Rothenberg Political Report, The Cook Political Report and Real Clear Politics all rated this race a toss-up.[13][14][15][16]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
May 28, 2014
August 26, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: Arizona is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. The primary is considered semi-closed. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[17][18][19]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters had to register by July 28, 2014. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6, 2014.[20]

See also: Arizona elections, 2014

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Ann Kirkpatrick (D), who was first elected in 2012.

The 1st District stretches along the eastern and northeastern portions of the state and includes Apache, Navajo, Greenlee, Graham, Pinal, Gila and Coconino counties.[21]

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Andy Tobin


August 26, 2014, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Election results

General election

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnn Kirkpatrick Incumbent 52.5% 90,161
     Republican Andy Tobin 47.5% 81,638
Total Votes 171,799
Source: Arizona Secretary of State (100% reporting) Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.

Primary election

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngAndy Tobin 35.8% 18,814
Gary Kiehne 35.1% 18,407
Adam Kwasman 29.1% 15,266
Total Votes 52,487
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

Race background

General election

Debates

Kirkpatrick and Tobin argued about the effectiveness of the Affordable Care Act, immigration reform, educational spending, job creation and environmental regulations in a debate held on September 24, 2014. In the debate, Tobin blamed Kirkpatrick for a number of issues including her support for President Obama. He said, "I think it’s clear that Congresswoman Kirkpatrick stands with President Obama. And I think that’s part of the critical crisis we’re going through in rural Arizona today." Kirkpatrick attacked Tobin for his work in the state legislature. Referencing spending cuts, she said, "You refused to provide the funding for our most vulnerable children and for education and good schools. That’s what businesses are going to look at if they’re going to come to Arizona."[23][3]

Kirkpatrick also accused Tobin of not understanding the district. After putting her leg on a table to show off her boots, which have been "a symbol of her roots in the district," Kirkpatrick said, "I want viewers to see: These are actually the real thing. My opponent unfortunately is one of the few candidates in Arizona who can't vote for himself because he doesn't live in the district. That's not representation."[3]

The candidates participated in another debate on October 14, 2014. The candidates largely stuck to their prior strategies in the debate, with Tobin tying Kirkpatrick to Obama and Kirkpatrick claiming that Tobin was unable to understand a district that he did not live in. The candidates did agree on some issues. Both supported President Obama's airstrikes against ISIS but believed congressional approval was necessary for any escalation. Neither candidate vowed to never vote for tax increases as well.[24]

Outside spending

Fueled by outside spending, OpenSecrets.org listed Arizona's 1st Congressional District as the 7th most expensive House race in 2014 with a total of $15,575,994 spent.[6] The DCCC spent $3,112,975 solely against Tobin, and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spent $4,227,366 in support of Tobin and against Kirkpatrick. House Majority PAC, which spent $1,975,120, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which spent $300,000, also had a significant impact on this race.[6]

Navajo Nation

Arizona's 1st Congressional District is the most Native American district in the country, with roughly 25 percent of citizens of Native American descent. The Navajo Nation's presidential election coincided with the 2014 midterm election on November 4, and according to Jack Fitzpatrick of National Journal, this may have helped Kirkpatrick, "who grew up on an Apache reservation and has released two Navajo-language radio ads this cycle.” Fitzpatrick noted that “Native American turnout can be hard to predict, especially in a rural district where pollsters can't reach voters who don't have landline phones. It also doesn't help Democrats that Navajo and Arizona elections have different polling places and some voters may not participate in both elections.”[25]

Ann Kirkpatrick

Vulnerable incumbent

Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick (D), was one of seven early targets listed by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in the 2014 congressional elections.[26] The seven targets aligned perfectly with the seven most Republican districts currently held by Democrats, according to FairVote's partisanship index. Kirkpatrick's district ranked as the 6th most Republican.[27]

Kirkpatrick was a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline Program. The program was designed to help protect vulnerable Democratic incumbents heading into the 2014 election.[28]

Redistricting

Kirkpatrick was first elected to the House in 2008. She then lost her re-election bid to Paul Gosar in 2010. Due to redistricting, Gosar was moved to the 4th Congressional District. Kirkpatrick ran for the newly open 1st District seat and won it back in 2012. She is one of five House Democrats who were ousted in 2010 and won back a seat in 2012.[29]

Andy Tobin

NRCC

The National Republican Congressional Committee added Tobin to their "On the Radar" list in November 2013. According to the NRCC, candidates that made this list received "the tools they need to run successful, winning campaigns against their Democratic opponents."[30]

Residence

Tobin lived just outside of Arizona's 1st Congressional District in Paulden, Ariz. His residence was a point of contention throughout the race, but Tobin argued that he knew the district well. He said, "I know what rural Arizona needs. I don’t think they’re looking for someone who wants to get in lockstep with President (Barack) Obama and Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Reid.”[4]

Republican primary

In a Republican primary that was too close to call for more than a week after the primary election, Tobin ultimately triumphed over Gary Kiehne by just under 1 percent of the vote.[31][32] After conceding, Kiehne said, "My top priority this fall is to see Republicans win here in Arizona, so I want to offer all of my support to our Republican nominee Andy Tobin and all of the other Republican nominees in the general election."[33]

Migrant children comment

Candidate Adam Kwasman mistook a bus of YMCA campers for an expected group of immigrant children being moved to a shelter in Oracle, Ariz. Upon seeing the bus Kwasman tweeted, "Bus coming in. This is not compassion. This is the abrogation of the rule of law." He then told a reporter, "I was actually able to see some of the children in the buses. The fear on their faces.... This is not compassion." When he was informed of his blunder, he said, "I apologize, I didn't know. I was leaving when I saw them."[34][35]

Kwasman's cancer

Kwasman revealed that he had a rare blood cancer, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, on August 14, 2014, just two weeks before the primary election. Kwasman said that the cancer is slow-growing, has presented no symptoms and will likely require no treatment for up to a decade. When speculation emerged that he was trying to use the diagnosis to generate goodwill, Kwasman responded, "The story was already getting out there. This is not about politics. ... I don't understand why telling people I have cancer is good publicity."[36]

Ebola

Tobin suggested that Central American migrants could bring the Ebola virus to the United States in an interview in the Tucson Weekly on August 21, 2014. Tobin said, "Anything's now possible. So if you were to say the Ebola virus has now entered (the country), I don't think anyone would be surprised... to the extent that they're really aware of that. I think there is a reason we should be concerned about it and say, 'Hey, can you assure us the people crossing the border are not from the Middle East?'…So I use that as an example, that the public would not be surprised to hear about the next calamity at the border."[37]

Endorsements

Andy Tobin

On March 29, 2014, Speaker John Boehner headlined a fundraiser for Tobin and Martha McSally (AZ-02).[38]

Polls

General election
Poll Ann Kirkpatrick Andy TobinUndecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
American Action Network (September 16-18, 2014)
42%48%10%+/-4.9400
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Media

Ann Kirkpatrick


DCCC ad attacking Tobin on education cuts

Opposing Kirkpatrick


LIBRE Initiative ad attacking Ann Kirkpatrick for voting for Obamacare

NRCC ad attacking Kirkpatrick for "carrying Obama's baggage"

Gary Kiehne


Kiehne for Congress "Washington is Broken"

Issues

See also: Energy and the 2014 election: the ballots and beyond

Campaign themes

Ann Kirkpatrick

Kirkpatrick's campaign website listed the following issues:[39]

  • 2nd Amendment
Excerpt: "I am a strong supporter of the 2nd Amendment. The NRA has awarded me an "A" rating for my efforts to defend Second Amendment rights."
  • Immigration and Border Security
Excerpt: "Immigration and border security issues are especially urgent here in Arizona, but unfortunately we’ve seen many elected officials and candidates use these issues for their own political gain instead of actually solving the problems."
  • Jobs for Arizona
Excerpt: "It’s all about jobs. We need jobs in Greater Arizona, and we need to get folks back to work. Our middle class has been smashed by the recession and is struggling to keep up with the rising cost of basic living expenses, gasoline, college education, and health care. I am committed to making Greater Arizona home to a revived middle class by making the creation of good-paying local jobs my top priority. "
  • Protecting Medicare and Social Security
Excerpt: "Our seniors worked hard and held jobs their whole lives to earn the benefits that Medicare and Social Security provide. During this economic downturn, seniors are counting on Social Security and Medicare more than ever, and after years of hard work, they deserve the peace of mind these programs provide."
  • Building Critical Infrastructure
Excerpt: "I strongly support creating thousands of good-paying jobs in Greater Arizona and empowering our economic recovery through investments in critical infrastructure projects."

Republican primary

Gun violence

While speaking at a Republican primary debate, Gary Kiehne made the claim that 99 percent of mass shootings in the country were committed by Democrats. He said, "If you look at all the fiascos that have occurred, 99 percent of them have been by Democrats pulling their guns out and shooting people. So I don’t think you have a problem with the Republicans."[40]

Kiehne later apologized, saying "This past weekend, I made a comment about the political affiliation of perpetrators of gun violence in the heat of a debate. I’ve since learned that the information that I based the comment off of was inaccurate and incorrect. I’ve always believed that when you make a mistake, you should own up to it. Too many politicians today offer nothing but spin and excuses when they say something they shouldn’t have. I’m not going to do that. Simply put, I shouldn’t have made the comment, and I want to offer my apology for making it without any reservations."[41]

Key votes

Below are important votes Kirkpatrick cast during the 113th Congress.

Government shutdown

See also: United States budget debate, 2013

Nay3.png On September 30, 2013, the House passed a final stopgap spending bill before the shutdown went into effect. The bill included a one-year delay of the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate and would have also stripped the bill of federal subsidies for congressional members and staff. It passed through the House with a vote of 228-201.[42] At 1 a.m. on October 1, 2013, one hour after the shutdown officially began, the House voted to move forward with going to a conference. In short order, Sen. Harry Reid rejected the call to conference.[43] Ann Kirkpatrick voted against the stopgap spending bill that would have delayed the individual mandate.[44]

Yea3.png The shutdown ended on October 16, 2013, when the House took a vote on HR 2775 after it was approved by the Senate. The bill to reopen the government lifted the $16.7 trillion debt limit and funded the government through January 15, 2014. Federal employees also received retroactive pay for the shutdown period. The only concession made by Senate Democrats was to require income verification for Obamacare subsidies.[45] The House passed the legislation shortly after the Senate, by a vote of 285-144, with all 144 votes against the legislation coming from Republican members. Ann Kirkpatrick voted for HR 2775.[46]

Campaign contributions

Ann Kirkpatrick

Ann Kirkpatrick (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[47]April 15, 2013$7,757.86$314,137.54$(76,999.97)$244,895.43
July Quarterly[48]July 15, 2013$244,895.43$311,893.37$(104,011.45)$452,777.35
October Quarterly[49]October 15, 2013$452,777.35$295,690.75$(95,816.14)$652,651.96
Year-End[50]January 31, 2014$652,651$268,973$(97,465)$824,159
April Quarterly[51]April 15, 2014$824,159$321,881$(109,861)$1,036,178
July Quarterly[52]July 15, 2014$1,036,178$420,640$(157,979)$1,298,839
Pre-Primary[53]August 14, 2014$1,298,839$192,950$(136,320)$1,355,469
October Quarterly[54]October 15, 2014$1,355,469$628,133$(1,163,487)$820,115
Pre-General[55]October 23, 2014$820,115$221,299$(760,110)$281,305
Running totals
$2,975,597.66$(2,702,049.56)

Gary Kiehne

Gary Kiehne (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
October Quarterly[56]October 15, 2013$0$50,600$(5,000)$45,600
Year-End[57]January 31, 2014$45,600$217,073$(51,999)$210,673
April Quarterly[58]April 15, 2014$210,673$166,642$(102,622)$274,693
July Quarterly[59]July 15, 2014$274,693$193,150$(130,820)$337,022
Running totals
$627,465$(290,441)

**As of the 2014 July Quarterly Report, Kiehne's committee owed $300,000 in outstanding loans to Gary Kiehne.

Adam Kwasman

Adam Kwasman (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[60]February 1, 2014$0$102,555$(23,183)$79,372
April Quarterly[61]April 17, 2014$79,372$28,234$(43,074)$64,532
July Quarterly[62]July 15, 2014$64,532$74,549$(51,003)$88,078
Running totals
$205,338$(117,260)

Andy Tobin

Andy Tobin (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[63]January 23, 2014$0$235,120$(43,767)$191,352
April Quarterly[64]April 15, 2014$191,352$150,211$(128,318)$213,246
July Quarterly[65]July 15, 2014$213,246$176,810$(169,554)$220,502
Pre-Primary[66]August 14, 2014$220,502$39,861$(178,201)$82,162
October Quarterly[67]October 15, 2014$82,162$439,190$(144,927)$376,424
Pre-General[68]October 23, 2014$376,424$93,203$(272,812)$196,814
Running totals
$1,134,395$(937,579)

District history

Candidate ballot accecss
Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg

Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington D.C.

2012

On November 6, 2012, Ann Kirkpatrick (D) won election to the United States House. She defeated Jonathan Paton and Kim Allen in the general election.

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnn Kirkpatrick 48.8% 122,774
     Republican Jonathon Paton 45.1% 113,594
     Libertarian Kim Allen 6.1% 15,227
Total Votes 251,595
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Paul Gosar won election to the United States House. He defeated Ann Kirkpatrick (D) and Nicole Patti (L) in the general election.[69]

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Gosar 49.7% 112,816
     Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick incumbent 43.7% 99,233
     Libertarian Nicole Patti 6.6% 14,869
Total Votes 226,918

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS FOR June 26, 2014," accessed July 28, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed July 28, 2014
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 The Arizona Republic, "Democrat Kirkpatrick defends party line, as she debates Republican opponent," accessed October 6, 2014
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 Arizona Republic, "Tobin set to seek Kirkpatrick’s seat," accessed October 6, 2014
  5. 5.0 5.1 Roll Call, "The Survivor: How Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick Held On," accessed November 19, 2014
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 OpenSecrets.org, "Most Expensive Races," accessed November 19, 2014
  7. The Arizona Republic, "Give Rep. Kirkpatrick an encore," accessed October 6, 2014
  8. FairVote, "FairVote Releases Projections for the 2014 Congressional Elections," accessed November 5, 2013
  9. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed April 4, 2014
  10. Arizona Secretary of State, "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election," November 6, 2012
  11. Kirkpatrick for Arizona, "Issues," accessed October 6, 2014
  12. Inside Tucson Business, "CD1 candidates disagree on most issues, but find some common ground," accessed October 8, 2014
  13. Center for Politics, "2014 House," accessed October 6, 2014
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  15. Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for October 3, 2014," accessed October 6, 2014
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  17. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  18. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  19. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  20. Arizona Secretary of State Website, "Voter Registration and Education," accessed January 3, 2014
  21. Arizona Redistricting, "Map," accessed July 7, 2012
  22. 22.0 22.1 AzCapitolTimes.com, "Arizona House speaker eyes run for Congress," September 18, 2013
  23. Casa Grande Dispatch, "Election 2014: Arizona Congressional debate," September 25, 2014
  24. Azfamily.com, "Tobin, Kirkpatrick square off in congress debate," October 15, 2014
  25. National Journal, "There's a Presidential Election in 2014, and It Could Cost Republicans a House Seat," accessed October 6, 2014
  26. The Hill, "NRCC, promising to 'stay on offense,' targets seven Dems," accessed January 16, 2013
  27. FairVote, "NRCC Targets Foreshadow Power of Partisanship in 2014 Elections," January 18, 2013
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  29. The Washington Post, "Political comeback kids to take seats again in the House," November 18, 2012
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  32. KTAR, "Andy Tobin wins Arizona's 1st Congressional District GOP primary," September 2, 2014
  33. Ktar.com, "Andy Tobin wins Arizona's 1st Congressional District GOP primary," accessed October 6, 2014
  34. Azcentral, "Arizona politician mistakes YMCA campers for migrant children," July 16, 2014
  35. Daily KOS, "Anti-immigrant Arizona Republican saddened by refugee kids ... from YMCA camp," July 16, 2014
  36. Azcentral, "GOP candidate Kwasman reveals he has cancer," August 13, 2014
  37. Mother Jones, "Another GOP Candidate Says Migrant Kids Might Have Ebola. (They Don't.)," August 21, 2014
  38. Political Party Time, "Luncheon for McSally Tobin Victory Committee," March 29, 2014
  39. Campaign website, "Issues," accessed June 10, 2014
  40. Think Progress, "Congressional Candidate: Democrats Commit ’99 Percent’ Of Mass Shootings," May 18, 2014
  41. Roll Call, "Kirkpatrick Challenger Apologizes for Linking Democrats With Mass Shooters," May 19, 2014
  42. Clerk of the U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 504," accessed October 31, 2013
  43. Buzzfeed, "Government Shutdown: How We Got Here," accessed October 1, 2013
  44. Clerk of the U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 504," accessed October 31, 2013
  45. The Washington Post, "Reid, McConnell propose bipartisan Senate bill to end shutdown, extend borrowing," accessed October 16, 2013
  46. U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 550," accessed October 31, 2013
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