Arizona's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

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2012

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Arizona's 2nd Congressional District

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
August 26, 2014

Incumbent prior to election:
Ron Barber Democratic Party
Ron Barber.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss Up[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up[2]


Arizona U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9

2014 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Arizona.png
BattlegroundRace.jpg
The 2nd Congressional District of Arizona will hold an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014.

Arizona's 2nd Congressional District is a battleground in 2014. Incumbent Ron Barber (D) is seeking re-election in a district with nearly even amounts of Republican and Democratic voters according to Cook's PVI and Fairvote.[3][4] Barber is a freshman incumbent who won election to the district by less than 1 percent in 2012. Additionally, the Republican presidential candidate won the district in both 2012 and 2008.

Barber will face Martha McSally (R) in November in a rematch of the 2012 general election. McSally defeated the other Republican candidates for the seat, Shelley Kais and Chuck Wooten, in the primary on August 26, 2014.[5]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
May 28, 2014
August 26, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: Arizona is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. The primary is considered semi-closed. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[6][7][8]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters had to register by July 28, 2014. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 6, 2014.[9]

See also: Arizona elections, 2014

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent is Ron Barber (D), who was first elected in a special election on June 12, 2012.

The 2nd District is located in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise County and part of Pima County.[10]

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Ron Barber
Republican Party Martha McSally


August 26, 2014, primary results
Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Primary results

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMartha McSally 69.4% 45,492
Chuck Wooten 22.9% 14,995
Shelley Kais 7.8% 5,103
Total Votes 65,590
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

Race background

Incumbent Ron Barber (D), is one of seven early targets listed by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in the 2014 congressional elections.[11] The seven targets align perfectly with the seven most Republican districts currently held by Democrats, according to FairVote's partisanship index. Barber's district ranks as the 7th most Republican (46% D).[12]

Barber is a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline Program. The program is designed to help protect vulnerable Democratic incumbents heading into the 2014 election.[13]

Republican challenger Martha McSally is seeking a rematch of the 2012 race in which Barber narrowly defeated her with less than 1 percent of the vote separating the two candidates. The 2012 race was too close to call for over a week after the election took place.[14]

Endorsements

On March 29, 2014, Speaker John Boehner headlined a fundraiser for Martha McSally and Andy Tobin (AZ-01).[15]

Media


LIBRE Initiative ad attacking Ron Barber for voting for Obamacare

Martha McSally


Campaign ad praising McSally for helping others in times of need

Martha McSally - "Time"

Polls

Ron Barber vs Martha McSally
Poll Ron Barber Martha McSallyUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Normington Petts (June 8-10, 2014)
45%37%18%+/-4.9400
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

According to the NRCC, a poll released on July 11, 2013, shows Barber leading McSally 46% to 45%.[16]

Issues

Campaign themes

Ron Barber

Barber's campaign website lists the following issues:[17]

  • Standing Up For The Middle Class – Jobs And The Economy: "I have worked my whole life in Southern Arizona. My wife and I ran a small business for 22 years, and now our children are raising their families here as well. That’s why making sure that our economy improves and provides good jobs is my top priority. We can’t have a thriving America without a thriving middle class."
  • Fiscal Responsibility: "Getting our nation’s finances under control is critically important. We can do it—but only if we also focus on growing our economy. That is why I support a balanced approach that includes spending cuts as well as making sure that the rich and corporations pay their fair share."
  • Social Security and Medicare: "I have pledged to protect Social Security and Medicare, and make sure that it is available to future generations. Millions of Americans have paid into Social Security and Medicare expecting that it would be there when they retired. For many Americans, this is their only source of income and health care security in their senior years–and they deserve representatives who will fight to make sure its there for them."
  • Border Security: "Southern Arizonans who live near our border with Mexico deserve the same safety and security as every American. I have spent countless hours along our border meeting with residents, business owners, and law enforcement officials, and I know what we need to get the job done."
  • Military and Veterans: "I was raised in a military family and lived on Davis-Monthan Air Force base, so I understand what our military families sacrifice when they serve. I will be a strong voice in Congress for those who serve currently and have served."

[18]

—Ron Barber's campaign website, http://ronbarberforcongress.com/issues/

Martha McSally

McSally's campaign website lists the following four pillars of her campaign:[19]

  • Economy: "Families in our community are barely getting by, small businesses are struggling to survive, and Davis-Monthan is at risk of closing. Ron Barber favors job-killing policies that hurt middle class families and he was asleep at the wheel on the risk to DM until I alerted him in an August 27th op-ed. We need a representative in Congress who is going to champion solutions and policies that bring economic growth to Southern Arizona."
  • Leadership: "Washington is broken. People are rightfully fed up with politicians and incumbents. We need servant leadership more than ever, focused on what is best for the country and community, instead of worrying about their next election. I am ready to bring to Congress the core values I learned in the Air Force; service, excellence, and integrity. It’s time for a fresh face with a proven record of leadership to solve the challenges we face."
  • Government Overreach: "So many people in Southern Arizona have been hurt by Obamacare-the government takeover of 1/6 of the economy, and Ron Barber supports it. We need common sense solutions to bring down the cost of healthcare so it is more affordable and available, not social engineering founded on mandates, taxes, and penalties."
  • National Security: "America is facing an increasing array of threats to our security and way of life and we must ensure we have a military that is trained and equipped to protect us. This district contains two critical military bases, a large stretch of the border that is not secure, and 85,000 veterans, as well as citizens who care deeply about the lack of leadership in DC on national security, defense, and support to veterans. I served 26 years in the military, retiring as a full Colonel, and I have the experience and proven leadership to provide oversight to the Administration to defend America."

[18]

—Martha McSally's campaign website, https://mcsallyforcongress.com/3-pillars-campaign/

Key votes

Below are important votes the current incumbent cast during the 113th Congress.

Government shutdown

See also: United States budget debate, 2013

Yea3.png On September 30, 2013, the House passed a final stopgap spending bill before the shutdown went into effect. The bill included a one-year delay of the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate and would have also stripped the bill of federal subsidies for congressional members and staff. It passed through the House with a vote of 228-201.[20] At 1 a.m. on October 1, 2013, one hour after the shutdown officially began, the House voted to move forward with going to a conference. In short order, Sen. Harry Reid rejected the call to conference.[21] Ron Barber voted to approve the stopgap spending bill that would have delayed the individual mandate.[22]

Yea3.png The shutdown ended on October 16, 2013, when the House took a vote on HR 2775 after it was approved by the Senate. The bill to reopen the government lifted the $16.7 trillion debt limit and funded the government through January 15, 2014. Federal employees also received retroactive pay for the shutdown period. The only concession made by Senate Democrats was to require income verification for Obamacare subsidies.[23] The House passed the legislation shortly after the Senate, by a vote of 285-144, with all 144 votes against the legislation coming from Republican members. Ron Barber voted for HR 2775.[24]

Campaign contributions

Ron Barber

Ron Barber (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[25]April 15, 2013$86,068.66$297,213.90$(55,409.14)$327,873.42
July Quarterly[26]July 15, 2013$327,873.42$294,191.88$(70,446.30)$551,619.00
October Quarterly[27]October 15, 2013$551,619.00$318,584.58$(103,000.07)$767,203.51
Year-End[28]January 31, 2014$767,203$252,732$(80,706)$939,229
April Quarterly[29]April 15, 2014$939,229$422,799$(151,977)$1,210,051
July Quarterly[30]July 15, 2014$1,210,051$558,954$(205,078)$1,563,927
Running totals
$2,144,475.36$(666,616.51)

Martha McSally

Martha McSally (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[31]April 15, 2013$20,380.37$8,475.90$(6,216.72)$22,639.55
July Quarterly[32]July 15, 2013$22,639.55$15,002.15$(7,037.66)$30,604.04
October Quarterly[33]October 15, 2013$30,604.04$394,880.98$(37,287.73)$388,197.29
Year-End[34]January 31, 2014$388,197$322,585$(162,807)$547,974
April Quarterly[35]April 15, 2014$547,974$441,105$(141,937)$847,142
July Quarterly[36]July 15, 2014$847,142$653,357$(343,459)$1,157,040
Running totals
$1,835,406.03$(698,745.11)

Shelley Kais

Shelley Kais (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[37]January 30, 2014$0$15,701$(2,801)$12,899
April Quarterly[38]April 15, 2014$12,899$6,168$(5,963)$13,104
July Quarterly[39]July 15, 2014$13,104$11,284$(11,075)$13,313
Running totals
$33,153$(19,839)

Chuck Wooten

Chuck Wooten (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[40]April 13, 2014$0$6,954$(5,787)$1,166
July Quarterly[41]July 10, 2014$1,166$20,343$(18,080)$3,430
Running totals
$27,297$(23,867)

District history

Candidate ballot accecss
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2012

On November 6, 2012, Ron Barber (D) won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Martha McSally (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRon Barber Incumbent 50.4% 147,338
     Republican Martha McSally 49.6% 144,884
     Libertarian Anthony Powell 0% 57
Total Votes 292,279
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Trent Franks won re-election to the United States House. He defeated John Thrasher (D), Powell Gammill (L), William Crum (Write-in) and Mark Rankin (Write-in) in the general election.[42]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks incumbent 64.9% 173,173
     Democratic John Thrasher 31.1% 82,891
     Libertarian Powell Gammill 4.1% 10,820
     Write-in William Crum 0% 8
     Write-in Mark Rankin 0% 2
Total Votes 266,894

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS FOR June 26, 2014," accessed July 28, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed July 28, 2014
  3. FairVote, "FairVote Releases Projections for the 2014 Congressional Elections," accessed November 5, 2013
  4. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed April 4, 2014
  5. Politico, "2014 Arizona House Primaries Results," accessed August 26, 2014
  6. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  7. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  8. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  9. Arizona Secretary of State Website, "Voter Registration and Education," accessed January 3, 2014
  10. Arizona Redistricting "Map" accessed July 7, 2012
  11. The Hill, "NRCC, promising to 'stay on offense,' targets seven Dems," accessed January 16, 2013
  12. FairVote, "NRCC Targets Foreshadow Power of Partisanship in 2014 Elections," January 18, 2013
  13. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "DCCC Chairman Steve Israel Announces 2013-2014 Frontline Members," accessed March 5, 2013
  14. Seattle PI "Voters in Arizona's 2nd pick Barber over McSally," November 17, 2012
  15. Political Party Time, "Luncheon for McSally Tobin Victory Committee," March 29, 2014
  16. Roll Call, "GOP Poll: McSally and Barber Tied in Arizona," July 11, 2013
  17. Campaign website, "Issues," accessed June 10, 2014
  18. 18.0 18.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributed to the original source.
  19. Campaign website, "The 3 Pillars of My Campaign," accessed June 10, 2014
  20. Clerk of the U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 504," accessed October 31, 2013
  21. Buzzfeed, "Government Shutdown: How We Got Here," accessed October 1, 2013
  22. Clerk of the U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 504," accessed October 31, 2013
  23. The Washington Post, "Reid, McConnell propose bipartisan Senate bill to end shutdown, extend borrowing," accessed October 16, 2013
  24. U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 550," accessed October 31, 2013
  25. Federal Election Commission, "Ron Barber April Quarterly," accessed July 22, 2013
  26. Federal Election Commission, "Ron Barber July Quarterly," accessed July 22, 2013
  27. Federal Election Commission, "Ron Barber October Quarterly," accessed October 21, 2013
  28. Federal Election Commission, "Ron Barber Year-End," accessed February 4, 2014
  29. Federal Election Commission, "Ron Barber April Quarterly," accessed April 20, 2014
  30. Federal Election Commission, "Ron Barber July Quarterly," accessed July 23, 2014
  31. Federal Election Commission, "Martha McSally April Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  32. Federal Election Commission, "Martha McSally July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  33. Federal Election Commission, "Martha McSally October Quarterly," accessed October 29, 2013
  34. Federal Election Commission, "Martha McSally Year-End," accessed February 7, 2014
  35. Federal Election Commission, "Martha McSally April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
  36. Federal Election Commission, "Martha McSally July Quarterly," accessed July 24, 2014
  37. Federal Election Commission, "Shelley Kais Year-End," accessed February 7, 2014
  38. Federal Election Commission, "Shelley Kais April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
  39. Federal Election Commission, "Shelley Kais July Quarterly," accessed July 24, 2014
  40. Federal Election Commission, "Chuck Wooten April Quarterly," accessed June 3, 2014
  41. Federal Election Commission, "Chuck Wooten July Quarterly," accessed July 24, 2014
  42. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013