Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014

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Arizona Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date:
August 26, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Race rating: Lean Republican

November 4 Election Winner:
Doug Ducey Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Jan Brewer Republican Party
JanBrewer Portrait.jpg

Arizona State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Mine Inspector, Treasurer, Superintendent, Public Service Commissioner

Battleground Races
Arizona State Senate

Current trifecta for Republicans
WhoRunsTheStates Badge.jpg
State executive offices in Arizona
Flag of Arizona.png
The Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, following a primary on August 26. Incumbent Jan Brewer, a Republican who went from Arizona Secretary of State to Arizona Governor following former Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano's 2009 departure, won a full term as governor in 2010 and was ineligible for re-election in 2014 because of term limits. Brewer initially considered mounting a legal challenge to the term limit laws barring her from seeking a second consecutive four-year term, but ultimately conceded the issue. Doug Ducey (R) won the race against Fred DuVal (D) to replace Brewer.

In the months prior to the general election, the race was rated "Likely R" by The Cook Political Report, predicting that another Republican would likely follow Brewer in the position.[1] Meanwhile, Governing rated the race between major party nominees Ducey and DuVal as a "Toss-up."[2] Learn more about Brewer, the 2014 candidates and the hotly contested Republican primary by jumping to the race background section.

The gubernatorial contest was not the only race on the November ballot that could have shifted the balance of power in Arizona. The Arizona State Senate was identified by Ballotpedia as one of the top 20 legislative chambers to watch in 2014. Both legislative chambers and the governor's office were held by the Republican Party, making Arizona a state government trifecta. Republicans maintained trifecta status following the 2014 election.

Arizona is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. The primary is considered semi-closed. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[3][4][5]

Candidates

General election

Republican Party Doug Ducey Green check mark transparent.png[6][7]
Democratic Party Fred DuVal[8]
Libertarian Party Barry J. Hess[9][10]
Independent (Americans Elect) J.L. Mealer[11]
Independent (Write-in) J. Johnson
Independent (Write-in) Diana-Elizabeth Kennedy
Independent (Write-in) Brian Bailey[12]
Independent (Write-in) Carey Dolego[12]
Republican Party (Write-in) Alice Novoa
Unaffiliated, Curtis Woolsey

Term-limited

Republican Party Jan Brewer - Incumbent

Lost in the primary

Republican Party Mike Aloisi[13]
Republican Party Ken Bennett[14]
Republican Party Christine Jones[15]
Republican Party (Write-in) Alice Lukasik[16]
Republican Party Frank Riggs[17]
Republican Party Scott Smith[18][19]
Republican Party Andrew Thomas[6][20]

Results

General election

Governor of Arizona, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDoug Ducey 53.4% 805,062
     Democratic Fred DuVal 41.6% 626,921
     Libertarian Barry J. Hess 3.8% 57,337
     Americans Elect J.L. Mealer 1% 15,432
     Nonpartisan Write-ins 0.1% 1,664
Total Votes 1,506,416
Election Results via Arizona Secretary of State.

Primary election

Republican primary

Governor of Arizona Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDoug Ducey 37.2% 200,607
Scott Smith 22.1% 119,107
Christine Jones 16.7% 89,922
Ken Bennett 11.5% 62,010
Andrew Thomas 8.1% 43,822
Frank Riggs 4.5% 24,168
Mike Aloisi (Write-in) 0% 27
Alice Lukasik (Write-in) 0% 27
Total Votes 539,690
Election Results Via:Arizona Secretary of State.

Democratic primary

  • Uncontested

Race background

Outside money in the gubernatorial race

The Republican Governors Association (RGA) and other outside groups supporting Doug Ducey (R) spent $3.4 million through mid-October on TV ads to portray Fred DuVal (D) as a puppet of lobbyists and special interests in Arizona. An analysis by The Republic showed that Ducey and DuVal were both recipients of significant campaign contributions from lobbyists. This analysis revealed that lobbyists contributed $185,000 to Ducey and $250,000 to DuVal by the report's publication on October 26. The Republic showed that 11 percent of DuVal's overall contributions in 2014 came from lobbyists, placing this analysis into context.[21]

Term limits for Gov. Brewer

Incumbent Jan Brewer (R) was term-limited from seeking re-election, leaving the seat open for the 2014 electoral cycle. The race was rated "Likely R" by The Cook Political Report, meaning Brewer would be succeeded by another Republican.[22] Meanwhile, Governing rated the general election between major party nominees Doug Ducey (R) and Fred DuVal (D) as a "Toss-up."[23]

Brewer was originally appointed to the position in 2009 and was elected once in 2010. Arizona's term limit laws preclude any individual who has occupied the governor's office during two consecutive terms from running for re-election. Brewer and some of her supporters asserted that the law does not adequately account for the conditions of Brewer's incomplete first term. Hints that Brewer would pursue an exemption from the term-limit law or otherwise attempt to circumvent the eligibility restriction began in November 2012 and persisted until March 2014. A crowded field of Republican hopefuls rushed into the race to replace Brewer as Arizona's chief executive official before the first filing window closed in May. Former Arizona Board of Regents President Fred DuVal earned an automatic pass to the general election as the sole Democratic Party entrant.

Heated Republican primary

The hotly contested GOP primary attracted several big names from government and the private sector, such as outgoing Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey, Secretary of State Ken Bennett, Mesa mayor Scott Smith and former GoDaddy.com executive vice president Christine Jones. Ducey looked to be the front-runner in the months leading up to the primary, owing to a consistent polling lead and strong name recognition, although Smith and Jones were close on his tail. After Ducey won the Republican primary on August 26, 2014, defeated challengers Thomas and Riggs immediately endorsed Ducey. Bennett, Smith and Jones, however, in an act that defied post-primary custom, all declined to give the nominee their automatic support. The trio of former candidates also skipped the Arizona Republican Party "unity breakfast" held the morning after election day. Explaining their reticence to the Arizona Republic the day after Ducey's primary victory, the recently eliminated contenders cited some unspecified "issues" with some of Ducey's stances and their lingering skepticism over Ducey's account of his role in a legal dispute stemming from the 2007 sale of Cold Stone Creamery.[24] In the subsequent weeks, all three came around to backing Ducey for the general election.[25]

Rounding out the ballot

With all eyes trained on the GOP contest in the final stretch of the primary campaign season, the number of minor-party and unaffiliated contenders who qualified or were in the process of qualifying for placement on the November 4 ballot swelled to 17. After the primary, Ducey joined DuVal and this diverse pool of lesser known candidates seeking to fill the open governor's seat.[26][27]

Debates

September 29 debate

The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission hosted a debate featuring Doug Ducey (R), Fred DuVal (D), Barry J. Hess (L) and Americans Elect candidate J.L. Mealer. The four candidates divided into separate camps over the state's expansion of a health-insurance program for low-income residents. Ducey opposed the expansion prior to implementation, but would allow continuation of the expansion over a three-year period where the federal government provides matching funds. Hess also expressed reservations about the program, arguing that he would cut the program because its success has led to excessive tax increases. DuVal and Mealer voiced support for the expansion, with DuVal noting that repeal would be burdensome not only to patients but the state economy.[28]

The debate also highlighted differences among the major party candidates over driver's licenses for young adults who came to the United States without proper documentation. Gov. Jan Brewer has blocked issuance of licenses to this group and Ducey would continue the policy if elected. DuVal called the governor's actions "mean-spirited" and suggested that repealing the prohibition would be his first act as governor.[28]

Polls

General election
Ducey vs. DuVal vs. Hess

Arizona Governor - General election match-ups
Poll Doug Ducey (R) Fred DuVal (D)Barry J. Hess (L)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)
February 3-6, 2014
32%32%6%30%+/-3.5500
The Arizona Republic
August 24-25, 2014
35%35%12%18%+/-4.0588
Terrance (R-Arizona Free Enterprise Club)
September 15-17, 2014
44%38%6%11%+/-4.5505
Keating (D-Restore Arizona's Future PAC)
September 17-19, 2014
41%39%7%13%+/-4.0600
Moore Information
October 7-8, 2014
36%39%3%22%+/-4.9400
American Encore
October 20-22, 2014
42%35%7%15%+/-4601
AVERAGES 38.33% 36.33% 6.83% 18.17% +/-4.15 532.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Ducey vs. Duval

Governor of Arizona - Ducey vs. DuVal
Poll Doug Ducey (R) Fred DuVal (D)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Susquehanna Polling and Research
November 2013
36%33%31%+/--600
Rasmussen Reports
August 27-28, 2014
40%40%13%+/-4.0850
New York Times/CBS/YouGov
September 20-October 1, 2014
50%39%11%+/-32,808
Rasmussen Reports
October 14-16, 2014
47%42%10%+/-31,056
New York Times/CBS/YouGov
October 16-23, 2014
50%40%10%+/-42,621
AVERAGES 44.6% 38.8% 15% +/-1.2 1,587
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Primary polling
Republican primary

Arizona Governor - GOP Primary
Poll Ken Bennett Doug DuceyChristine JonesFrank RiggsScott SmithAndrew ThomasUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Harper Polling
June 25-26, 2014
12%33%15%2%14%3%22%+/-3.48791
Magellan Strategies
July 9-10, 2014
11%26%22%2%14%6%19%+/-4.02593
Gravis Marketing
July 14, 2014
7%28%19%1%14%8%24%+/-4.0691
Harper Polling
July 16-17, 2014
12%23%21%1%13%7%22%+/-3.29885
Arizona Automobile Dealers Association
August 15, 2014
10%31%16%3%23%7%10%1,300
Harper Polling
August 19-20, 2014
14%32%16%2%19%7%10%+/-3.44812
AVERAGES 11% 28.83% 18.17% 1.83% 16.17% 6.33% 17.83% +/-3.04 845.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Republican primary

Arizona Governor - GOP primary
Poll Ken Bennett Christine JonesAl MelvinAndrew ThomasDoug DuceyScott SmithUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Susquehanna Polling and Research
(November 2013)
20%4%2%4%8%6%53%+/--245
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign media

General election

Doug Ducey


Doug Ducey ad: Different (October 15, 2014)

Fred DuVal


Fred DuVal ad: Trust (September 19, 2014)

Fred DuVal ad: Forward (October 22, 2014)

Outside organizations

Republican Governors Association


RGA ad: What is Fred DuVal Hiding? (October 14, 2014)

Primary election

Doug Ducey


Doug Ducey: "Direct Message" - Posted to YouTube at 4/29/14

Scott Smith


Proven Results - Posted to YouTube 7/10/14

Protecting Arizona - Posted to YouTube 7/9/14

Scott Smith for Arizona Governor 2014 - Posted to YouTube 6/10/14

Past elections

2010

On November 2, 2010, Jan Brewer won re-election to the office of Governor of Arizona. She defeated Terry Goddard (D), Barry J. Hess (LBT), Larry Gist (Green) and various write-in challengers in the general election.

Governor of Arizona, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJan Brewer Incumbent 54.3% 938,934
     Democratic Terry Goddard 42.4% 733,935
     Libertarian Barry J. Hess 2.2% 38,722
     Green Larry Gist 0.9% 16,128
     N/A Write-ins 0.1% 2,017
Total Votes 1,729,736
Election Results Via: Arizona Secretary of State

2006

Arizona Governor, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJanet Napolitano Incumbent 62.6% 959,830
     Republican Len Munsil 35.4% 543,528
     Libertarian Barry J. Hess, II 2% 30,268
     Write-in Arthur Ray Arvizu 0% 10
     Write-in Robert B. Winn 0% 3
     Write-in Brian Wright 0% 6
Total Votes 1,533,645
Election Results Via: Arizona Secretary of State

2002

Arizona Governor, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJanet Napolitano 46.2% 566,284
     Republican Matt Salmon 45.2% 554,465
     Independent Richard Mahoney 6.9% 84,947
     Libertarian Barry Hess 1.7% 20,356
     Write-in Assorted 0% 59
Total Votes 1,226,111
Election Results Via: Arizona Secretary of State

Voter turnout

Political scientist Michael McDonald's United States Elections Project studied voter turnout in the 2014 election by looking at the percentage of eligible voters who headed to the polls. McDonald used voting-eligible population (VEP), or the number of eligible voters independent of their current registration status, to calculate turnout rates in each state on November 4. He also incorporated ballots cast for the highest office in each state into his calculation. He estimated that 82,596,338 ballots were cast in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, representing 36.4 percent of the VEP.[29] By comparison, 61.6 percent of VEP voted in the 2008 presidential election and 58.2 percent of VEP voted in the 2012 presidential election.[30]

Quick facts

  • According to PBS Newshour, voter turnout in the 2014 midterms was the lowest since the 1942 midterms, which took place during the nation's involvement in World War II.[31]
  • Forty-three states and the District of Columbia failed to surpass 50 percent turnout in McDonald's analysis.
  • The three states with the lowest turnout according to McDonald's analysis were Indiana (28 percent), Texas (28.5 percent) and Utah (28.8 percent).
  • Maine (59.3 percent), Wisconsin (56.9 percent) and Alaska (55.3 percent) were the three states with the highest turnout.
  • There were only 12 states that increased voter turnout in 2014 compared to the 2010 midterm elections.[32]
Voter turnout rates, 2014
State Total votes for top office  % voter eligible population Top statewide office up for election Size of lead (Raw votes) Size of lead (%)
Alabama 1,200,000 33.5 Governor 320,319 27.2
Alaska 290,000 55.3 Governor 4,004 1.6
Arizona 1,550,000 34.4 Governor 143,951 12.5
Arkansas 875,000 41.2 Governor 118,664 14
California 7,750,000 31.8 Governor 1,065,748 17.8
Colorado 2,025,000 53.0 Governor 50,395 2.4
Connecticut 1,089,880 42.3 Governor 26,603 2.5
Delaware 234,038 34.4 Attorney general 31,155 13.6
District of Columbia 150,000 30.3 Mayor 27,934 19
Florida 5,951,561 42.7 Governor 66,127 1.1
Georgia 2,575,000 38.2 Governor 202,685 8
Hawaii 366,125 36.2 Governor 45,323 12.4
Idaho 440,000 39.1 Governor 65,852 14.9
Illinois 3,550,000 39.5 Governor 171,900 4.9
Indiana 1,350,000 28.0 Secretary of state 234,978 17.8
Iowa 1,150,000 50.6 Governor 245,548 21.8
Kansas 875,000 42.8 Governor 33,052 3.9
Kentucky 1,440,000 44.2 U.S. Senate 222,096 15.5
Louisiana 1,472,039 43.8 U.S. Senate 16,401 1.1
Maine 625,000 59.3 Governor 29,820 4.9
Maryland 1,750,000 41.9 Governor 88,648 6.1
Massachusetts 2,150,000 43.9 Governor 40,361 1.9
Michigan 3,151,835 42.7 Governor 129,547 4.3
Minnesota 2,025,000 51.3 Governor 109,776 5.6
Mississippi 650,000 29.7 U.S. Senate 141,234 33
Missouri 1,450,000 32.3 Auditor 684,074 53.6
Montana 365,000 46.1 U.S. Senate 65,262 17.9
Nebraska 550,000 41.3 Governor 97,678 18.7
Nevada 600,000 31.8 Governor 255,793 46.7
New Hampshire 500,000 48.8 Governor 24,924 5.2
New Jersey 1,825,000 30.4 N/A N/A N/A
New Mexico 550,000 38.3 Governor 73,868 14.6
New York 3,900,000 28.8 Governor 476,252 13.4
North Carolina 2,900,000 40.7 U.S. Senate 48,511 1.7
North Dakota 248,670 43.8 U.S. House At-large seat 42,214 17.1
Ohio 3,150,000 36.2 Governor 933,235 30.9
Oklahoma 825,000 29.8 Governor 122,060 14.7
Oregon 1,500,000 52 Governor 59,029 4.5
Pennsylvania 3,500,000 36.1 Governor 339,261 9.8
Rhode Island 325,000 41.7 Governor 14,346 4.5
South Carolina 1,246,301 34.8 Governor 179,089 14.6
South Dakota 279,412 44.5 Governor 124,865 45.1
Tennessee 1,400,000 29.1 Governor 642,214 47.5
Texas 4,750,000 28.5 Governor 957,973 20.4
Utah 550,000 28.8 Attorney general 173,819 35.2
Vermont 193,087 38.8 Governor 2,095 1.1
Virginia 2,200,000 36.7 U.S. Senate 16,727 0.8
Washington 2,050,000 41.6 N/A N/A N/A
West Virginia 460,000 31.8 U.S. Senate 124,667 27.6
Wisconsin 2,425,000 56.9 Governor 137,607 5.7
Wyoming 168,390 38.7 Governor 52,703 33.6
United States 82,596,338 36.4

Note: Information from the United States Elections Project was last updated on November 19, 2014. The results in this table draw from unofficial results as of November 12, 2014.

Key deadlines

Deadline Event
May 28, 2014 Filing deadline for major party candidates
July 17, 2014 Filing deadline for write-in candidates (Primary)
August 26, 2014 Primary election
September 25, 2014 Filing deadline for write-in candidates (General)
November 4, 2014 General election
December 1, 2014 Official Canvass of general election results
January 5, 2015 Inauguration day for state executive officials in general election

Recent news

This section displays the most recent stories in a google news search for the term Arizona + Governor + Election + 2014

All stories may not be relevant to this page due to the nature of the search engine.

Arizona Gubernatorial election, 2014 News Feed

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See also

External links

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Suggest a link

References

  1. The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," September 15, 2014
  2. Governing, "2014 Governors Races," September 10, 2014
  3. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  4. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  5. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  6. 6.0 6.1 East Valley Tribune, State treasurer Doug Ducey files paperwork to explore Ariz governor run, July 23, 2013
  7. Doug Ducey for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 1, 2013
  8. Fred DuVal Governor 2014, accessed April 2, 2013
  9. ABC 15, LIST: Race heats up for Arizona Governor, January 9, 2014
  10. The Republic, "Libertarian candidate to be on ballot in Arizona governor's race after GOP challenge dismissed," June 19, 2014
  11. J.L. Mealer Governor 2014, accessed July 25, 2013
  12. 12.0 12.1 Arizona Secretary of State, "2014 General Election Writein Candidates," accessed September 29, 2014
  13. Arizona Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Election Writein Candidates," accessed July 3, 2014
  14. Eastern Arizona Courier, "Bennett announces candidacy," September 17, 2013
  15. Christine Jones for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 19, 2013
  16. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named fulllisting
  17. The Arizona Republic, "Former California congressman enters Arizona governor race," January 23, 2014
  18. azcentral.com, "Mesa Mayor Smith will quit to run for governor," January 9, 2014
  19. Politico, "Republican mayor Scott Smith rises in Arizona," March 8, 2013
  20. The Arizona Republic, "Disbarred former Maricopa County Attorney Thomas to run for governor," April 26, 2013
  21. AZCentral.com, "Lobbyists aid campaigns of Doug Ducey, Fred DuVal," October 26, 2014
  22. The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," September 15, 2014
  23. Governing, "2014 Governors Races," September 10, 2014
  24. The Arizona Republic, "Ducey's key GOP rivals in no rush to end," August 29, 2014
  25. Fox10Phoenix.com, "Defeated candidates for GOP nomination back Ducey," September 4, 2014
  26. The New York Times, "Gov. Jan Brewer of Arizona Won’t Seek Re-election," March 12, 2014
  27. Arizona Republic, "Kanefield: Constitution clears Brewer to pursue another term," November 15, 2012
  28. 28.0 28.1 12 News & The Arizona Republic, "Governor candidates debate Arizona highs, lows," September 30, 2014
  29. United States Elections Project, "2014 November General Election Turnout Rates," November 7, 2014
  30. TIME, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low," November 10, 2014
  31. PBS, "2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years," November 10, 2014
  32. U.S. News & World Report, "Midterm Turnout Down in 2014," November 5, 2014