Arizona gubernatorial election, 2010

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Breaking news

In the Arizona gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, Republican Jan Brewer defeated Democrat Terry Goddard. Brewer had already been serving as the appointed Governor since January 2009.

Following the August 24, 2010 primary elections, Jan Brewer won more than 80% of the GOP primary votes. Terry Goddard had no declared primary opposition.

November 2, 2010 general election results

The official canvass of results was released at 11:00 am on November 29, 2010.[1]

2010 Race for Governor - General Election[2]
Party Candidate Vote Percentage
     Republican Party Approveda Jan Brewer 54.33%
     Democratic Party Terry Goddard 42.47%
     Libertarian Party Barry J. Hess 2.24%
     Green Party Larry Gist 0.93%
     Write-In Janelle Woods 0.02%
     Write-In Cary Dolego >0.01%
     Write-In Anton Dowls >0.01%
Total Votes 1,728,081

Inauguration and transition

Inaugural date

Jan Brewer began her full term on January 10, 2011.

Transition team

As Jan Brewer was a re-elected incumbent, the need for a transition team was limited.

August 24, 2010 primary

2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary[3]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Jan Brewer (R) 81.79%
Matt Jette (R) 3.29%
Dean Martin (R) 5.77%
Buz Mills (R) 8.84%
(write-in) 0.31%
Total votes 370,296
2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary[4]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Terry Goddard (D) 96.86%
(write-in) 3.14%
Total votes 189,870




2010 Race for Governor - Green Primary[5]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Larry Gist (D) 77.41%
(write-in) 22.59%
Total votes 1,443
2010 Race for Governor - Libertarian Primary[6]
Candidates Percentage
Ron Cavanaugh 16.02%
Green check mark.jpg Barry J. Hess 44.82%
Bruce Olsen 20.95%
Alvin Ray Yount 8.29%
(write-in) 9.92%
Total votes 1,785

Race ratings

See also: Gubernatorial elections 2010, Race tracking

2010 Race Rankings Arizona
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[7] Likely Republican
Congressional Quarterly Politics[8] Leans Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Likely Republican
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[10] Solid GOP
The Rothenberg Political Report[11] Lean Republican
Overall Call Republican


Changes

1. Cook Political Report moved the race from "Toss-up" to "Likely Republican" in its September 30th ratings.

Polling

2010 Race for Arizona Governor - Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported Brewer (R) Goddard (D) Other Not sure
October 28, 2010[12] 53% 39% 7% 1%
October 3, 2010[13] 55% 39% 3% 3%
September 7, 2010[14] 60% 38% 1% 1%
July 23, 2010[15] 56% 37% 2% 5%
July 1, 2010[16] 53% 35% 2% 9%
May 21, 2010[17] 52% 39% 7% 3%
April 28, 2010[18] 48% 40% 7% 5%
April 21, 2010[19] 44% 40% 9% 6%
March 23, 2010[20] 36% 45% 12% 7%
January 25, 2010[21] 41% 43% 7% 9%
November 23, 2009[22] 35% 44% 9% 12%
(Sample)[23] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05
2010 Race for Arizona Governor - Public Policy Polling[24]
Date Reported Brewer Goddard Other Don't Know
April 27, 2010[25] 44% 47% -% 10%
September 23, 2009[26] 36% 46% -% 17%

Background

President Barack Obama nominated then-Governor Janet Napolitano for his cabinet as the Secretary of Homeland Security. SHe resigned as Arizona's governor on January 21, 2009, one day after the U.S. Senate confirmed her.

Arizona does not have an office of the lieutenant governor, meaning the first person in the line of succession is the secretary of state. Republican Jan Brewer was the occupant of the office and was sworn in to replace Napolitano as governor. On November 5, 2009, Brewer announced her intention to seek a full term.[27]

Candidates

The November Ballot – Who's Made It? Arizona Governor
Nominee Affiliation
Terry Goddard[28] Democrat
Jan Brewer[29] Republican
Larry Gist[30] Green
Barry J. Hess[31] Libertarian
Anton Dowls[32] (write-in)
Janelle Woods[33] (write-in)
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who have since been officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

Democratic

Green Party

  • Larry Gist became a candidate as on May 26, 2010. A legal challenge over the validity of his signatures was dropped by the petitioners and he became the unconested Green Party candidate for governor.[35]

Libertarian

  • Ronald 'Ron' Cavanaugh filed on May 10, 2010.
  • Barry J. Hess, an investor, entered the race officially on May 26, 2010.
  • Businessman Bruce Olsen filed papers on May 13, 2010; heran as a Tea Party Candidate.
  • Mike Ross, a frequent candidate, supporting the NIFF or "Non initiation of force or fraud” principle, considered running but did not file.
  • Alvin Ray Yount, a teacher and rancher, joined the race on May 25, 2010.

Republican

  • Incumbent Jan Brewer officially began her re-election campaign on February 2, 2010.
  • Matthew Jette joined the race April 26, 2010.

Withdrawn Republican candidates

  • Tom Gordon filed papers on May 26, 2010, but later withdrew from the race.
  • Accountant Hugh Kealer.[36]
  • State Treasurer Dean Martin, a business owner and former member of the state Senate, filed on May 26, 2010. On July 9, 2010, he suspended his campaign and pledged support to Jan Brewer, saying "Today, I am announcing that I am suspending my campaign ... I feel a contested primary would be a distraction. ... I fully intend to support the Governor in her battle with the Obama Administration and its relentless attack on the people of Arizona."
  • Owen 'Buz' Mills, an entrepreneur and businessman, suspended his campaign, effective July 13, 2010, in reaction to SB170, Arizona's immigration reform bill.[37]
  • John Munger, a former chair of the Arizona Republican Party, announced his candidacy and filed to run on May 17 2010.[34] However, he later withdrew due to fundraising difficulties.
  • Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley, launched an exploratory campaign.[34]. However, he chose not to run and instead campaiged for a Congressional seat.
  • Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Although he never entered the race, he was listed in polls and did well.[38]

Independent candidates

  • Stanford Drew Collins
  • Kent Couchee, a contractor in the home building industry.
  • Howard F. Howard, a businessman and biochemist, ran as a "non-professional politician."
  • Ben H. Jankowski
  • John Paul Mitchell, II, a yoga teacher
  • Fredrick Scotty

write-in candidates

  • Anton Dowls
  • Janelle Wood, as a Republican

Debates

On September 1, 2010, Jan Brewer met her opponent, Terry Goddard in what might turn out to be the only debate of the Arizona gubernatorial contest. Candidates for public office are required to participate in at least one debate under the state's campaign finance laws, and Brewer's performance in that outing left her reticent - to say the least - to agree to further debates.

Brewer lost her train of thought several times and there were several lengthy gaps of dead air.[39] Ultimately, it became fodder for opposition campaign ads.[40]

After that, Brewer made no bones about her preference to stay out of the debate forum for the rest of the campaign season, quipping that, "Maybe there would be a possibility that we would debate if my numbers started dropping dramatically. And, of course, I'm working hard to see that they don't."[41]

With her poll numbers hovering around 60% that late in the campaign, it was unlikely Brewer would have needed to agree to face Goddard in the remaining weeks before election day.

Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results[42]
Candidates Percentage
Jane Dee Hull (R) 61.1%
Paul Johnson (D) 35.3%
Katherine “Kat” Gallant (L) 2.7%
Scott Alan Malcomson (Ref) 0.8%
Total votes 1,017,261
2002 Gubernatorial Results[43]
Candidates Percentage
Janet Napolitano (D) 46.2%
Matt Salmon (R) 45.2%
Richard Mahoney (I) 6.9%
Barry Hess (L) 1.7%
Total votes 1,226,052
2006 Gubernatorial Results[44]
Candidates Percentage
Janet Napolitano (D) 62.6%
Len Munsil (R) 35.4%
Barry Hess (L) 2.0%
Total votes 1,506,386



Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 51.0%
Al Gore (D) 44.7%
2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 54.9%
John Kerry (D) 44.4%
2008 Presidential Results[45]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 53.4%
Barack Obama (D) 44.9%


1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 38.5%
Bill Clinton (D) 36.5%
1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 44.3%
Bill Clinton (D) 46.5%

External links

Candidate pages

See also

See also: Arizona Secretary of State election, 2010; Arizona Attorney General election, 2010

References

  1. 'Arizona Secretary of State', "STATE OF ARIZONA OFFICIAL CANVASS: 2010 General Election - November 2, 2010," November 29, 2010
  2. Arizona Secretary of State - 2010 General Election Results
  3. Arizona Department of State, Division of Elections, “August 24, 2010 Primary Election Results, Governor”, August 24, 2010
  4. Arizona Department of State, Division of Elections, “August 24, 2010 Primary Election Results, Governor”, August 24, 2010
  5. Arizona Department of State, Division of Elections, “August 24, 2010 Primary Election Results, Governor”, August 24, 2010
  6. Arizona Department of State, Division of Elections, “August 24, 2010 Primary Election Results, Governor”, August 24, 2010
  7. The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  8. CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  9. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2010 Governor Ratings”
  10. Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  11. Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  12. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: Arizona Governor: Brewer (R) Still Well Ahead of Goddard (D)," October 29, 2010
  13. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: Goddard (D) Still Trails Brewer (R)," October 5, 2010
  14. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: Brewer (R) 60%, Goddard (D) 38%," September 8, 2010
  15. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: Arizona Governor: Brewer (R) 56% Goddard (D) 37%," July 23, 2010
  16. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: Brewer (R) 53%, Goddard (D) 35%," July 1, 2010
  17. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: Brewer 52%, Goddard 39%," May 21, 2010
  18. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: Poll Bounce for Arizona Governor After Signing Immigration Law," April 28, 2010
  19. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: Goddard Loses Ground to All GOP Hopefuls," April 21, 2010
  20. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: GOP's Martin, Mills Lead Goddard," May 28, 2010
  21. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: Martin (R) Runs Best Against Goddard (D)," January 25, 2010
  22. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor: Martin (R) Runs Best Against Goddard (D),"November 23, 2009
  23. [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  24. [Full crosstabs and methodology are available free of charge with the press release accompanying each poll]
  25. Public Policy Polling, "Goddard Leads All Candidates in Arizona," April 27, 2010
  26. Public Policy Polling, "Goddard Favored in 2010," September 23, 2009
  27. AZCentral.com, "Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor," November 5, 2009
  28. Arizona Secretary of State, "Unofficial Election Results," last updated September 3, 2010
  29. Arizona Secretary of State, "Unofficial Election Results," last updated September 3, 2010
  30. Arizona Secretary of State, "Unofficial Election Results," last updated September 3, 2010
  31. Arizona Secretary of State, "Unofficial Election Results," last updated September 3, 2010
  32. Arizona Secretary of State, "2010 General Election: Write-in Candidates," last updated August 16, 2010
  33. Arizona Secretary of State, "2010 General Election: Write-in Candidates," last updated August 16, 2010
  34. 34.0 34.1 34.2 KVOA, "With tax issue, Ariz. gov faces tough road in 2010," November 14, 2009
  35. AzCapitolTimes, "Challenge against Green Party guv candidate to be dropped," June 15 2010
  36. Kealer and Mills identify themselves as Republican candidates. They were not listed as official candidates with the Secretary of State, and missed the deadline to declare a write-in candidacy.
  37. Kealer and Mills identify themselves as Republican candidates. Though they are not listed as official candidates with the Secretary of State, the deadline to declare a write-in candidacy has not yet passed.
  38. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Arizona Governor Election," November 23, 2009
  39. Huffington Post, "Jan Brewer Starts Badly, Finishes Worse, In Last Night's Arizona Gubernatorial Debate (VIDEO)," September 2, 2010
  40. Huffington Post, "Jan Brewer's Debate Disaster Becomes Fodder For Ads (VIDEO)," September 20, 2010
  41. Wall Street Journal, "Year of the Debate Ducker: Why Arizona Governor Jan Brewer is refusing to debate Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard," October 2, 2010
  42. STATE OF ARIZONA OFFICIAL CANVASS: 1998 General Election, November 23, 1998
  43. STATE OF ARIZONA OFFICIAL CANVASS: 2002 General Election, November 25, 2002
  44. STATE OF ARIZONA OFFICIAL CANVASS: 2006 General Election, December 6, 2006
  45. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010