Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Arizona Congressional Seats

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November 2, 2012

By Ballotpedia's Congressional team

Arizona's Congressional Elections in 2012
U.S. Senate Election? U.S. House seats Possible competitive races?
Yes 9 3

PHOENIX: Arizona: Arizona has nine U.S. House seats on the ballot in 2012. Arizona gained one district due to the redistricting following the 2010 census. Seven of eight incumbents are seeking re-election, and all seven face at least one challenger in the general election (100%).

Currently, the Republican Party holds five of the eight Congressional seats from Arizona. According to the website RealClearPolitics, Arizona's 1st Congressional District is the 12th most likely district to flip in 2012.[1]

In Arizona, all polling places are open from 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM, Mountain Time.[2]

See also: State Poll Opening and Closing Times (2012)

U.S. Senate

Arizona has one U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in 2012. Republican and favorite in the race Jeff Flake faces Richard Carmona (D) in the general election. An analysis of 2012 Senate elections published by The New York Times rated the Arizona Senate race as leaning Republican.[3] Republicans say that they still feel optimistic about the race, but Flake is being outspent and polls have shown a tight race. What once is expected to be an easy Republican victory is now likely to be a close race to the finish.[4][4]

State General Election Candidates Incumbent 2012 Winner Partisan Switch?
Arizona Class 1 Senate seat Democratic Party Richard Carmona
Republican Party Jeff Flake
Libertarian Party Marc Victor
Independent Ian Gilyeat
Jon Kyl Pending Pending

U.S. House

Three of Arizona's nine districts are considered to be competitive in 2012 according to the New York Times race ratings. Those are the 1st, 2nd and 9th districts.[5]

Arizona's 1st Congressional District is considered to be a toss-up. Former Democratic representative Ann Kirkpatrick faces Republican Jonathan Paton. The seat is open after current incumbent Paul Gosar opted to run for re-election in the 4th District. Kim Allen is also running in the district as a Libertarian write-in candidate.

Arizona's 2nd Congressional District is also considered to be a toss-up according to the New York Times race ratings. Newly elected Democratic incumbent Ron Barber faces a challenge from Republican Martha McSally in the general election. The district has always been a battleground between moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, and the district has become slightly more Democratic since Barber's victory in the special election to replace Gabrielle Giffords. Anthony Powell is also running as a Libertarian write-in candidate.

Arizona's 9th Congressional District is considered to be Leaning Democratic. Redistricting left Republicans unhappy about the new 9th District, located in East Phoenix, Tempe and parts of Scottsdale, a relatively safe pickup for Democrats. Meanwhile, Republican incumbents David Schweikert and Benjamin Quayle were forced to battle each other in the 6th District.[6] Democrat Kyrsten Sinema faces Vernon Parker (R) in the general election. Powell Gammill is also running as a Libertarian candidate.

Here is a complete list of U.S. House candidates appearing on the general election ballot in Arizona:

Members of the U.S. House from Arizona -- Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2012 After the 2012 Election
     Democratic Party 3 5
     Republican Party 5 4
Total 8 9
 Congressional Redistricting Map 

For more information, view Redistricting in Arizona.


See also