Battleground Friday: Arizona's 1st Congressional District
November 4, 2014
August 26, 2014
Cook Political Report: Toss Up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up
By the Congress team
Current incumbent: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) was first elected to the House in 2008. She then lost her re-election bid to Paul Gosar in 2010. Due to redistricting, Gosar was moved to the 4th Congressional District. Kirkpatrick ran for the newly open 1st District seat and won it back in 2012. She is one of five House Democrats who were ousted in 2010 and won back a seat in 2012.
Kirkpatrick is a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline Program. The program is designed to help protect vulnerable Democratic incumbents heading into the 2014 election. According to a Washington Post article in December 2012, Kirkpatrick is one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents in 2014.
2014 candidates: Three Republican challengers will face off in the primary for a chance to defeat Kirkpatrick: State Reps. Adam Kwasman and Andy Tobin and businessman Gary Kiehne. Kwasman was the first Republican challenger to announce his entry into the race and was endorsed by FreedomWorks for America and the Tea Party Leadership Fund. Tobin is the establishment favorite. He received the endorsement of former Governor and presidential candidate Mitt Romney and held a fundraiser which was headlined by Speaker John Boehner. Tobin was also listed on the National Republican Congressional Committee's "On the Radar" list in November 2013.
What made it a Ballotpedia battleground district?: Our analysis points to the district being a battleground with slight Republican lean. Cook's PVI shows the district as R+4, while Fairvote rates the district as 52% Republican. Additionally, the MOV in 2012 was under 5% and the district was won by the Republican presidential candidate in both 2008 and 2012.
FEC: July Quarterly reports from the Federal Election Commission show incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick with a massive fundraising advantage over any of her Republican challengers. She has raised a total of $1,933,215 and has $1,298,839 cash on hand. Gary Kiehne leads the other Republican challengers with a total of $627,465 raised and $337,022 on hand. Andy Tobin is close behind with $562,141 in contributions and $220,502 on hand. Adam Kwasman significantly trails the field with a total of $205,338 in contributions and only $88,078 on hand.
- The information above was compiled following the Arizona candidate filing deadline. Please find all further updates on the 1st District's election page.
|Arizona's 1st Congressional District|
- U.S. House battleground districts, 2014
- Arizona's 1st Congressional District
- Arizona's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014
- Ann Kirkpatrick
- Adam Kwasman
- Gary Kiehne
- Andy Tobin
- Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS FOR June 26, 2014," accessed July 28, 2014
- Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed July 28, 2014
- The Washington Post, "Political comeback kids to take seats again in the House," November 18, 2012
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "DCCC Chairman Steve Israel Announces 2013-2014 Frontline Members," accessed March 5, 2013
- Washington Post, "House Democrats Face Long Odds in 2014," accessed December 7, 2012
- Arizona Secretary of State, "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election," November 6, 2012
- Arizona Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Election candidates," accessed July 24, 2014
- Adam Kwasman's campaign website, "Endorsement," accessed July 24, 2014
- Andy Tobin's campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed July 24, 2014
- Political Party Time, "Luncheon for McSally Tobin Victory Committee," March 29, 2014
- Roll Call, "House Republicans Put 36 Recruits ‘On the Radar’," accessed November 21, 2013
- Federal Election Commission, "Ann Kirkpatrick July Quarterly," accessed July 23, 2014
- Federal Election Commission, "Gary Kiehne July Quarterly," accessed July 24, 2014
- Federal Election Commission, "Andy Tobin July Quarterly," accessed July 24, 2014
- Federal Election Commission, "Adam Kwasman July Quarterly," accessed July 24, 2014