Battleground Friday: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District

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2012

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Arizona's 2nd Congressional District

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
August 26, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Incumbent prior to election:
Ron Barber Democratic Party
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Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss Up[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up[2]


Arizona U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9

2014 U.S. Senate Elections

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August 1, 2014

By Ballotpedia's Congressional team

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In the next profile of our 2014 battleground districts, Ballotpedia is taking an in-depth look at Arizona's 2nd Congressional District's 2014 election.

Current incumbent: Ron Barber (D) was first elected to the House in a special election on June 12, 2012, following the resignation of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. Barber then won re-election in the 2012 general election several months later.

Barber is a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline Program. The program is designed to help protect vulnerable Democratic incumbents heading into the 2014 election.[3] According to a Washington Post article in December 2012, Barber is one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents in 2014.[4]

2012 MOV: Barber won the seat in 2012 with a margin of victory of 0.8 percent over challenger Martha McSally (R). The two candidates were separated by 2,454 votes.[5]

2014 candidates: Three Republican challengers will face off in the primary for a chance to defeat Barber: 2012 challenger Martha McSally, Shelley Kais and Chuck Wooten.[6] Barber is very likely to face McSally in a rematch of the 2012 election due to her name recognition and massive fundraising advantage over the other two candidates. McSally was added to the National Republican Congressional Committee's "On the Radar" list in November 2013. According to the NRCC, candidates that make this list receive "...the tools they need to run successful, winning campaigns against their Democratic opponents."[7]

What made it a Ballotpedia battleground district?: Our analysis points to the district being a battleground with nearly even numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans. Cook's PVI shows the district as R+3 while Fairvote rates the district as 50.9% Democratic. Additionally, incumbent Barber won the seat over Mcsally in 2012 with a margin of victor of less than one percent. The district was won by the Republican presidential candidate in both 2008 and 2012 as well.

FEC: July Quarterly reports from the Federal Election Commission show incumbent Ron Barber with a fundraising advantage over all of his Republican challengers. He has raised a total of $2,144,475 and has $1,563,927 cash on hand.[8] Martha McSally is the only Republican challenger who has raised a significant amount of money. She has raised a total of $1,835,406 raised and has $1,157,040 on hand.[9] Shelley Kais and Chuck Wooten have only raised $33,153 and $27,297, respectively.[10][11]

The information above was compiled following the Arizona candidate filing deadline. Please find all further updates on the 2nd District's election page.
Arizona's 2nd Congressional District
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Population: 722,918
Gender: 50.8% Female, 49.2% Male
Race: 81.8% White, 4.1% Black, 3.2% Asian
Ethnicity: 26.5% Hispanic
Unemployment: 10.7%
Median household income: $44,921
High school graduation rate: 90.1%
College graduation rate: 30.3%

See also

References