Battleground Friday: California's 10th Congressional District

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2012

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California's 10th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
June 3, 2014

Incumbent prior to election:
Jeff Denham Republican Party
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Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely R[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely R[2]


California U.S. House Elections
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2014 U.S. Senate Elections

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By the Congress team

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In the next profile of our 2014 battleground districts, Ballotpedia is taking an in-depth look at California's 10th Congressional District's 2014 election.

Current incumbent: Jeff Denham (R) was first elected to the House in 2010. In 2012, he defeated Jose Hernandez (D) in a race that was made much closer due to redistricting following the 2010 census.[3]

Denham is a member of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program. The program is designed to assist vulnerable Republican incumbents heading into the 2014 election.[4] He filed a "Statement of Intention" to run for Lieutenant Governor of California in the 2014 elections, but decided to instead seek re-election to the 10th District.[5]

2012 MOV: Denham won the seat in 2012 with a margin of victory of 5.4% over Jose Hernandez (D). The two candidates were separated by 11,331 votes.

2014 candidates: There are two Democratic candidates challenging Denham for the seat, Michael Eggman and Mike Barkley. Eggman manages his family's almond orchard and apiary in Turlock.[6] He is a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Jumpstart program, which is designed to provide early support to top-tier Democratic challengers.[7] Barkley unsuccessfully challenged Jeff Denham in the 2012 election for the district.[8] He was defeated in the blanket primary on June 5, 2012, and received only 5.4% of votes.

What made it a Ballotpedia battleground district?: Our analysis points to the district being a battleground with a slight Republican lean. Cook's PVI shows the district as R+1, while Fairvote rates the district as 56.6% Republican. The MOV in 2012 was just over 5% and the district was won by President Barack Obama by only 3.6% in 2012 and 3% in 2008. Additionally, incumbent Jeff Denham is a sophomore representative with only one prior term under his belt.

FEC: Year-End reports from the Federal Election Commission show incumbent Jeff Denham with a significant fundraising advantage over his Democratic challengers. He raised a total of $1,380,477 in 2013 and is sitting on $1,297,875 cash on hand.[9] Eggman ended the year with contributions totaling $385,859 and $287,043 cash on hand.[10] Barkley raised under $1,000 in 2013.

The information above was compiled following the California candidate filing deadline. Please find all further updates on the 10th District's election page.
California's 10th Congressional District
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Population: 713,912
Gender: 50.3% Male, 49.7% Female
Race: 75.2% White, 6.3% Asian, 3.9% Black, 1.0% Native Am.
Ethnicity: 40.0% Hispanic
Unemployment: 17.8%
Median household income: $49,660
High school graduation rate: 77.4%
College graduation rate: 17.6%

See also

References