Battleground Friday: California's 10th Congressional District

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California's 10th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
June 3, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Jeff Denham Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Jeff Denham Republican Party
Jeff Denham.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely R[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely R[2]

California U.S. House Elections
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2014 U.S. Senate Elections

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By the Congress team


In the next profile of our 2014 battleground districts, Ballotpedia is taking an in-depth look at California's 10th Congressional District's 2014 election.

Current incumbent: Jeff Denham (R) was first elected to the House in 2010. In 2012, he defeated Jose Hernandez (D) in a race that was made much closer due to redistricting following the 2010 census.[3]

Denham is a member of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program. The program is designed to assist vulnerable Republican incumbents heading into the 2014 election.[4] He filed a "Statement of Intention" to run for Lieutenant Governor of California in the 2014 elections, but decided to instead seek re-election to the 10th District.[5]

2012 MOV: Denham won the seat in 2012 with a margin of victory of 5.4% over Jose Hernandez (D). The two candidates were separated by 11,331 votes.

2014 candidates: There are two Democratic candidates challenging Denham for the seat, Michael Eggman and Mike Barkley. Eggman manages his family's almond orchard and apiary in Turlock.[6] He is a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Jumpstart program, which is designed to provide early support to top-tier Democratic challengers.[7] Barkley unsuccessfully challenged Jeff Denham in the 2012 election for the district.[8] He was defeated in the blanket primary on June 5, 2012, and received only 5.4% of votes.

What made it a Ballotpedia battleground district?: Our analysis points to the district being a battleground with a slight Republican lean. Cook's PVI shows the district as R+1, while Fairvote rates the district as 56.6% Republican. The MOV in 2012 was just over 5% and the district was won by President Barack Obama by only 3.6% in 2012 and 3% in 2008. Additionally, incumbent Jeff Denham is a sophomore representative with only one prior term under his belt.

FEC: Year-End reports from the Federal Election Commission show incumbent Jeff Denham with a significant fundraising advantage over his Democratic challengers. He raised a total of $1,380,477 in 2013 and is sitting on $1,297,875 cash on hand.[9] Eggman ended the year with contributions totaling $385,859 and $287,043 cash on hand.[10] Barkley raised under $1,000 in 2013.

The information above was compiled following the California candidate filing deadline. Please find all further updates on the 10th District's election page.
California's 10th Congressional District
California's 10th.JPG

Population: 713,912
Gender: 50.3% Male, 49.7% Female
Race: 75.2% White, 6.3% Asian, 3.9% Black, 1.0% Native Am.
Ethnicity: 40.0% Hispanic
Unemployment: 17.8%
Median household income: $49,660
High school graduation rate: 77.4%
College graduation rate: 17.6%

See also