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Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections

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Competitiveness Overview
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Competitiveness Studies by Year
2007200920102011201220132014
Year-by-year comparison of results
This page details a year-by-year breakdown of absolute competitiveness in state legislative elections.

For a "degree" of absolute competitiveness, each state is given 1 point for each percentage based on the three factors. Then, the points are added up and divided by three to establish the degree. 1 is least competitive and 100 equals most competitive.

Under the absolute scenario, 100% of all incumbents facing a primary opponent, 100% of incumbents facing a primary and 100% of all general election seats having Democratic and Republican candidates. Thus, there would be a degree of 100 -- the most competitive (hypothetical) scenario.

The column headings mean the following:

  • % open seats: This refers to the percentage of seats in that year's elections where the incumbent did not run for re-election.
  • % face primary: This refers to the percentage of incumbents who faced primary opposition
  • % face major party opp: This refers to the percentage of seats where a major party candidate faced major party opposition in the general election.
Legend:      Top 5 Most Competitive     Bottom 5 Least Competitive



[edit]

This chart compares the total percentages for state legislative competitiveness by year.

Overall Comparison between years
2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Competitiveness Index 29.9 34.1 36.2 31.9 35.8 30.9 30.2
 % Open Seats 13.7% 10.5% 18.6% 18.2% 21.2% 6.8% 16.6%
 % Inc that did face primary 22.7% 18.6% 22.7% 20.1% 24.6% 12.2% 19.4%
 % Candidates that did face major party opp 53.3% 73.3% 67.3% 57.4% 61.7% 73.6% 54.6%

State % open seats % face primary % face major party opp ABSOLUTE INDEX
Louisiana 52.1 43.5 56.9 50.8
Mississippi 10.3 29.5 39.7 26.5
New Jersey 28.3 18.6 91.7 46.2
Virginia 7.1 6.2 34.3 15.9

State % open seats % face primary % face major party opp ABSOLUTE INDEX
New Jersey 11.3 36.3 95 47.5
Virginia 10 4.4 56 23.5

State % open seats % face primary % face major party opp ABSOLUTE INDEX
Alabama 14.3 28.3 42.9 28.5
Alaska 10 17.8 58.0 28.6
Arizona 44.4 50 75.6 56.7
Arkansas 45.3 6.3 33.3 28.3
California 38 9.7 92.0 46.6
Colorado 23.8 1.6 85.7 37.0
Connecticut 10.2 2.4 77.5 30.0
Delaware 9.6 10.6 57.7 26.0
Florida 32.2 19.6 49.0 33.6
Georgia 16.1 20.7 33.9 23.6
Hawaii 10.9 40.4 90.6 47.3
Idaho 8.6 27.1 55.2 30.3
Illinois 7.9 17.2 60.4 28.5
Indiana 8 16.5 62.4 29.0
Iowa 13.6 7.4 67.2 29.4
Kansas 8 20.0 57.6 28.5
Kentucky 5.9 18.8 57.1 27.3
Maine 23.7 2.8 97.3 41.3
Maryland 13.3 66.8 77.1 52.4
Massachusetts 16 8.3 46.0 23.4
Michigan 54.1 23.5 97.3 58.3
Minnesota 11.9 5.1 97.0 38
Missouri 40.6 15.0 57.2 37.6
Montana 39.7 14.5 72.2 42.1
Nebraska 12.5 61.9 70.8 48.4
Nevada 50.9 19.2 90.6 53.6
New Hampshire 24.1 74.2 98.1 65.5
New Mexico 4.3 20.9 48.6 24.6
New York 11.8 20.3 78.3 36.8
North Carolina 10.6 25.7 67.1 34.4
North Dakota 22.2 0.0 77.8 33.3
Ohio 26.7 15.3 86.2 42.7
Oklahoma 17.6 14.6 44.8 25.7
Oregon 9.2 13.0 93.4 38.6
Pennsylvania 9.2 14.5 58.8 27.5
Rhode Island 11.5 39.0 62.8 37.8
South Carolina 8.9 23.0 29.8 20.6
South Dakota 32.4 9.9 69.5 37.3
Tennessee 8.6 12.3 57.8 26.2
Texas 4.8 18.4 39.2 20.8
Utah 11.1 30.0 78.9 40
Vermont 12.2 7.0 62.2 27.1
Washington 17.9 12.9 62.6 31.1
West Virginia 12 55.4 75.2 47.5
Wisconsin 19.9 17.2 71.6 36.2
Wyoming 20 25.0 32.0 25.7

State % open seats % face primary % face major party opp ABSOLUTE INDEX
Louisiana 26 38.3 56.2 40.2
Mississippi 15 23.1 40.8 26.3
New Jersey 18.3 18.4 99.1 45.3
Virginia 13.6 1.7 43.6 19.6

State % open seats % face primary % face major party opp ABSOLUTE INDEX
Alaska 18.6% 32.1% 67.8% 39.5
Arizona 24.4% 45.8% 61.1% 43.8
Arkansas 34.8% 14.8% 46.7% 32.1
California 44% 35.7% 92% 57.2
Colorado 38.8% 7.6% 85.9% 44.1
Connecticut 13.4% 3.7% 81.8% 33
Delaware 16.1% 18.9% 38.7% 24.6
Florida 32.5% 32.7% 49.4% 38.2
Georgia 11.4% 23.3% 23.7% 19.5
Hawaii 10.5% 38% 61.8% 36.8
Idaho 33.3% 47.8% 73.3% 51.5
Illinois 17.5% 21.9% 36.7% 25.4
Indiana 16.8% 17.5% 60% 31.4
Iowa 26.2% 16.2% 68.3% 36.9
Kansas 30.3% 41.7% 70.3% 47.4
Kentucky 10.9% 20.8% 47.1% 26.3
Maine 35% 4.1% 97.6% 45.6
Massachusetts 4.5% 11.1% 31.5% 15.7
Michigan 20.9% 39.1% 98.2% 52.7
Minnesota 25.4% 7.6% 96% 43
Missouri 32.8% 27.8% 19.4% 26.7
Montana 34.9% 20.7% 81% 45.5
Nebraska 34.6% 29.4% 84.6% 49.5
Nevada 33.3% 33.3% 79.6% 48.7
New Hampshire 30% 46.5% 79.5% 52
New Mexico 18.8% 31.9% 47.3% 32.7
New York 10.8% 20.6% 65.7% 32.4
North Carolina 26.5% 30.7% 60.6% 39.3
North Dakota 25.3% 11.5% 82.7% 39.8
Ohio 13.8% 14.6% 88.8% 39.1
Oklahoma 18.4% 18.6% 47.2% 28.1
Oregon 13.2% 6.2% 76.3% 31.9
Pennsylvania 7.5% 18.5% 47.4% 24.5
Rhode Island 8.9% 33.7% 46% 29.5
South Carolina 14.1% 25% 30% 23
South Dakota 25.7% 30.1% 65.7% 40.5
Tennessee 17.4% 37.8% 53.9% 36.4
Texas 18.8% 34.7% 36.5% 30
Utah 17.6% 39.7% 81.3% 46.2
Vermont 12.8% 8.4% 71.7% 31
Washington 25% 14.3% 71.8% 37
West Virginia 6.8% 40.8% 69.2% 38.9
Wisconsin 24.4% 17% 75.7% 39
Wyoming 20% 35% 29.3% 28.1

State % open seats % face primary % face major party opp ABSOLUTE INDEX
New Jersey 4.2 14.8 98.3 39.1
Virginia 9.0 7.0 44.0 20.0

State % open seats % face primary % face major party opp ABSOLUTE INDEX
Alabama 20 10 34 27
Alaska 21 29 15 17
Arizona 5 4 27 11
Arkansas 11 36 42 37
California 4 2 12 2
Colorado 9 43 10 14
Connecticut 23 44 13 23
Delaware 45 22 26 34
Florida 26 25 35 35
Georgia 42 20 45 44
Hawaii 40 5 16 12
Idaho 31 6 22 18
Illinois 35 34 321 38
Indiana 43 35 30 40
Iowa 27 39 32 39
Kansas 33 23 18 22
Kentucky 37 30 25 31
Maine 7 45 2 8
Maryland 10 1 4 1
Massachusetts 32 37 37 42
Michigan 3 14 1 4
Minnesota 29 41 3 15
Missouri 18 28 24 28
Montana 2 18 8 5
Nebraska 1 31 6 3
Nevada 16 9 19 13
New Hampshire 8 7 11 6
New Mexico 19 33 28 32
New York TBD TBD TBD TBD
North Carolina 39 24 23 29
North Dakota 17 40 14 19
Ohio 13 12 7 7
Oklahoma 12 16 38 25
Oregon 15 38 21 26
Pennsylvania 28 21 33 33
Rhode Island 44 19 41 41
South Carolina 41 26 44 45
South Dakota 6 17 29 16
Tennessee 34 13 36 30
Texas 38 11 40 36
Utah 25 15 9 10
Vermont 24 42 39 43
Washington 30 27 17 21
West Virginia 36 8 5 9
Wisconsin 14 32 20 20
Wyoming 22 3 43 24


See also