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Illinois' 10th Congressional District elections, 2012

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Illinois' 10th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
March 20, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Brad Schneider Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Robert J. Dold Republican Party
Robert J. Dold.jpg

Illinois U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9District 10District 11District 12District 13District 14District 15District 16District 17District 18

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Illinois.png
The 10th Congressional District of Illinois held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.

Democrat Brad Schneider won the election.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
December 27, 2011
March 20, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Illinois has a mixed-hybrid primary system. Voters can change parties each year but must declare a party affiliation at the polls. Depending on which party is chosen, the voter will then be counted as registered for that party. Voters may change party affiliation at polls or caucus.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 21. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9. A "grace period" was also available, allowing voter registration until three days before an election.[2][3]

See also: Illinois elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Robert J. Dold (R), who was first elected in 2010. Dold no longer lived in the redrawn district,[4] but said he would move into the district if he won re-election.[5] An article in The Hill listed Robert J. Dold as the 5th most vulnerable Republican incumbent in 2012 as a result of redistricting.[6]

This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. Illinois' 10th Congressional District lies in the northeast corner of the state and mostly comprises northern suburbs of Chicago, taking up a majority of Lake County.[7]

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Brad SchneiderGreen check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Robert J. Dold
Democratic Party Aloys Rutagwibira (Write-in)


March 20, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Note:Aloys Rutagwibira was removed from the official candidate list on February 2, 2012[14]

Election results

General Election

U.S. House, Illinois District 10 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBrad Schneider 50.6% 133,890
     Republican Robert J. Dold Incumbent 49.4% 130,564
Total Votes 264,454
Source: Illinois Board of Elections "2012 General Election Official Vote Totals"

Democratic Primary

U.S. House, Illinois District 10 Democratic Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBrad Schneider 46.9% 15,530
Ilya Sheyman 38.6% 12,767
John Tree 8.9% 2,938
Vivek Bavda 5.7% 1,881
Total Votes 33,116

Race background

Illinois' 10th was considered to be leaning Democratic according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Robert J. Dold was one that Democrats have set their sights on ousting in 2012. He ran for re-election in one of the most Democratic districts in the nation.[15]

This is the 10th Congressional District prior to the 2010 redistricting.

Within the Democratic primary, candidates Ilya Sheyman and Brad Schneider had campaigned most heavily against each other, in a race characterized by Sheyman's supporters as a "choice between a progressive and a 'Blue Dog,' a reference to the coalition of conservative House Democrats."[16] In an article from "Talking Points Memo," Schneider's campaign manager Jerrod Backous stated, “Brad has never been asked and he would never join the Blue Dog Coalition,” in direct response to critique from Sheyman's supporters who argued that Schneider had aligned himself politically with conservative House Democrats' "Blue Dog Coalition."[16]

Ilya Sheyman was endorsed by MoveOn, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) and Howard Dean over opponents Brad Schneider, Vivek Bavda and John Tree in the Democratic primary,[17] while Brad Schneider received support from Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and others within the Illinois and national party establishment.[16]

Illinois' 10th District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization had specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[18]

Incumbent Robert J. Dold was a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on offense and increase their majority in 2012.[19]

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in Illinois

With the 2011 redistricting, Illinois lost 1 of its current 19 House seats because the state's population failed to grow as fast as in other states.[20] Illinois has had 11 Republican congressmen and 8 Democrats since the November 2010 election.[20] The new map, designed by the dominant Democrats, could have flipped that advantage to as many as 12 Democrats and only six Republicans.[20]

Dold won the Democratic-leaning suburban Chicago 10th District in 2010 by a narrow three-point margin.[21] In the redistricting process the district was pushed further into the suburbs, making it a bit more Democratic, and removing some of the swing voters that had allowed him to win in 2010.[6] Because of this, The Hill listed Robert J. Dold as the 5th most vulnerable Republican incumbents in 2012 as a result of redistricting.[6]

The new 10th District was composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[22][23]

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Illinois' 10th District became more Democratic because of redistricting.[24]

  • 2012: 60D / 40R
  • 2010: 58D / 42R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Illinois' 10th Congressional District has a PVI of D+8, which is the 123rd most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 64-36 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, John Kerry (D) won the district 54-46 percent over George W. Bush (R).[25]

Campaign donors

2012

Brad Schneider

Brad Schneider (2012)[26] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Pre-Primary[27]March 8, 2012$451,786.88$131,597.13$(373,648.27)$209,735.74
April Quarterly[28]April 15, 2012$209,735.74$268,886.20$(252,422.43)$226,199.51
Running totals
$400,483.33$(626,070.7)

Robert Dold

Robert J. Dold (2012)[29] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Pre-Primary[30]March 8, 2012$1,241,296.35$205,068.17$(152,704.54)$1,293,659.98
April Quarterly[31]April 15, 2012$1,293,659.98$397,866.81$(49,738.06)$1,641,788.73
Running totals
$602,934.98$(202,442.6)

Dold raised just over $1 million in the third quarter.[32]

District history

Candidate Ballot Access
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2010

On November 2, 2010, Robert J. Dold won election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated Daniel J. Seals (D) and Author C. Brumfield (I) in the general election.[33]

U.S. House, Illinois District 10, General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRobert J. Dold 51.1% 109,941
     Democratic Daniel J. Seals 48.9% 105,290
     Independent Author C. Brumfield 0% 1
Total Votes 215,232

See also

External links

References

  1. Politico, "2012 Election Map, Illinois"
  2. Illinois Board of Elections, "2012 Election Calendar," accessed July 21, 2012
  3. Illinois Board of Elections, "Registering to Vote in Illinois," accessed July 21, 2012
  4. Chicago Sun-Times, "Illinois Democrats target GOP with redrawing of congressional map" accessed December 5, 2011
  5. Libertyville Patch, "Dold Will Run in Remapped 10th" accessed December 5, 2011
  6. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named hill
  7. June 2011 Illinois Redistricting, "Map" accessed July 23, 2012
  8. Buffalo Grove Patch "Third Democrat Enters 10th Congressional Race" accessed December 5, 2011
  9. ABC News 7 "Election Results Primary 2012" accessed March 20, 2012
  10. Chicago Sun-Times "Brad Schneider running in Illinois 10 Democratic primary" accessed December 5, 2011
  11. abc7.com "Waukegan Dem announces bid for congressional seat" accessed December 5, 2011
  12. Chicago Sun-Times "Illinois Ten Democratic primary: John Tree, Air Force reservist, jumps in race" accessed December 5, 2011
  13. Chicago Sun-Times "Illinois Democrats target GOP with redrawing of congressional map" accessed December 5, 2011
  14. Illinois Board of Elections, "Candidate List" accessed February 10, 2012
  15. New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 7, 2012
  16. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named TPM
  17. Talking Points Memo, "The Illinois Progressive Out To Put A ‘Blue Dog’ Down" accessed March 19, 2012
  18. DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
  19. NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
  20. 20.0 20.1 20.2 Chicago Tribune, "Odd geography in new Illinois congressional map:Millions of constituents will find their representative has changed" accessed February 22, 2012
  21. The Hill, "Most vulnerable redistricted Republicans" accessed March 12, 2012
  22. Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "Illinois' congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
  23. Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
  24. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Illinois," September 2012
  25. Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
  26. FEC Reports, "Brad Schneider Summary Reports" accessed July 9, 2012
  27. FEC Reports, "Pre-Primary" accessed July 9, 2012
  28. FEC Reports, "April Quarterly" accessed July 9, 2012
  29. FEC Reports, "Robert J. Dold Summary Reports" accessed July 9, 2012
  30. FEC Reports, "Pre-Primary" accessed July 9, 2012
  31. FEC Reports, "April Quarterly" accessed July 9, 2012
  32. Politico, "Kemp's shadow--Labor targets Allen--Romney's fast food binge--Ohio appeals--Dems keep registration lead in 4 battlegrounds," accessed October 10, 2012
  33. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"