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Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2014

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Term Limits
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Impact of Term Limits by Year
2010201120122014
State senates
ArizonaArkansasCalifornia
ColoradoFloridaMaine
MichiganMissouriMontana
NebraskaNevadaOhio
OklahomaSouth Dakota
State houses
ArizonaArkansasCalifornia
ColoradoFloridaMaine
MichiganMissouriMontana
NevadaOhio
OklahomaSouth Dakota
State legislatures with term limits
Term limits on the ballot
Fourteen state senate chambers and thirteen state house chambers holding general elections on November 4, 2014, include some state legislators who are unable to run for re-election in 2014 because of their state's legislative term limits.
  • A total of 63 state senators are termed-out in 2014. This represents 19% of the 331 total state senate seats up for election in the 14 term-limited state senates with elections in November 2014.
  • A total of 160 state representatives are termed-out. This represents 12.7% of the 1,261 total seats up for election in the 13 term-limited states with elections in November 2014.

Altogether, 223 current state legislators must leave office after the November elections because of term limits. This is 14% of the 1,592 state legislative seats up for election in the 14 term-limited states with 2014 elections, and about 3.7% of the 6,047 state legislative seats that are up for election altogether in 2014, including the non-term-limited states.

See also: State legislative elections, 2014

State senates

Main article: Impact of term limits on state senate elections in 2014

There are 42 state senates holding general elections in November 2014. In 14 of these states, state senators are subject to term limits. Louisiana is the only state with state senate term limits that will not have a general election in 2014.

A total of 63 current state senators are ineligible to run for re-election in November because of term limit laws in their state. This includes:

  • 22 incumbent Democratic state senators
  • 24 incumbent Republican state senators
  • 17 nonpartisan state senators.

Going into the 2014 elections, the Democratic Party is the majority party in four of the 14 state senates with term limits. The Republican Party is the majority in 9 of the 14 state senates with term limits. Nebraska's state senate is term-limited and officially Non-partisan.

  • In four states, more Democrats are term-limited out than Republicans. In California, the majority party is Democratic. In Arkansas, Florida and Montana, the majority party is Republican.
  • In seven states, more Republicans are term-limited out than Democrats. In Michigan, Missouri, Oklahoma and South Dakota, the majority party is Republican. In Colorado, Maine and Nevada, the majority party is Democratic.
  • In one state, Ohio, equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats are term-limited in November 2014. Heading into the election, the majority party in Ohio is Republican.
  • There are no Arizona senators affected by term-limits in 2014.

State houses

Main article: Impact of term limits on state representative elections in 2014

There are 45 state houses holding general elections in November 2014. In 13 of these states, state house terms are subject to term limits. There are 15 states with state legislative term limits, but Louisiana will not hold a state house election in 2014 and Nebraska does not have a state house.

160 current state representatives are ineligible to run for re-election in November because of term limit laws in their state. This includes:

  • 73 incumbent Democratic state representatives
  • 87 incumbent Republican state representatives

Going into the 2014 elections, the Democratic Party is the majority party in four of the 14 state senates with term limits. The Republican Party is the majority in 9 of the 14 state senates with term limits. Nebraska's state senate is term-limited and officially Non-partisan.

  • In four states, more Democrats are term-limited out than Republicans. In California, the majority party is Democratic. In Arkansas, Florida and Montana, the majority party is Republican.
  • In seven states, more Republicans are term-limited out than Democrats. In Michigan, Missouri, Oklahoma and South Dakota, the majority party is Republican. In Colorado, Maine and Nevada, the majority party is Democratic.
  • In one state, Ohio, equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats are term-limited in November 2014. Heading into the election, the majority party in Ohio is Republican.
  • There are no Arizona senators affected by term-limits in 2014.

Breakdowns

Republican representatives will take a larger hit from term limits in the 2014 state legislative elections than the Democratic Party, both in terms of how many individual incumbent legislators the Republican Party will lose (113, versus 95 for the Democratic Party) and in terms of how many state legislative chambers lost more Republicans (12, versus 10 for Democrats).

Incumbents

Party # of termed senators # of termed representatives Total
Democratic 22 73 95
Republican 24 87 113
Non-partisan 17 0 17

Chambers

Party Senates with most losses Houses with most losses Total
Democratic 4 6 10
Republican 5 7 12
Equal D/R losses (or nonpartisan chamber) 4 0 4

Comparison to 2012

In 2012, a total of 255 seats were termed out in state senates and state houses combined. This was 14.3% of the 1,786 state legislative seats up for election in the 14 term-limited states with 2012 elections, and about 4% of the 6,015 state legislative seats that were up for election altogether in 2012, including the non-term-limited states.

Incumbents

Party # of termed senators # of termed representatives Total
Democratic 33 85 118
Republican 38 84 122
Non-partisan 7 0 7

Chambers

Party Senates with most losses Houses with most losses Total
Democratic 4 6 10
Republican 5 7 12
Equal D/R losses (or nonpartisan chamber) 4 0 4

See also

References