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Indiana's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2012

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Indiana's 2nd Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
May 8, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Jackie Walorski Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Joe Donnelly Democratic Party
Joe Donnelly.jpg

Indiana U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Indiana.png
The 2nd Congressional District of Indiana held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
This is the 2nd Congressional District prior to the 2010 redistricting.

Jackie Walorski (R) won election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012, narrowly defeating Joel Phelps (D) with only 1% of the vote. This switched partisan control of the district.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
February 24, 2012
May 8, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Indiana has an open primary system, in which any registered voter can choose which party's primary to vote in, without having to be a member of that party.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by April 9. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9.[2]

See also: Indiana elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Joe Donnelly (D), who was first elected in 2006. Donnelly will run for the U.S. Senate rather than for re-election to the House of Representatives[3]

This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. Indiana's 2nd Congressional District was based in South Bend located in north-central Indiana and took in La Porte, St. Joseph, Elkhart, Starke, Marshall, Pulaski, Fulton, Miami, Wasbasha, and Kosclusko counties.[4]

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Brendan Mullen
Republican Party Jackie WalorskiGreen check mark transparent.png
Libertarian Party Joe Ruiz
Independent Kenneth R. Lunce, Jr. (Write-In)
Note: Green Party Andrew Straw was disqualified from the ballot on July 27, 2012[5]


May 8, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic primary

Republican Party Republican primary

Did not appear on the ballot:

[11]

Green Party Green Party

Election results

General Election

U.S. House, Indiana District 2 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Brendan Mullen 47.6% 130,113
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJackie Walorski 49% 134,033
     Libertarian Joe Ruiz 3.4% 9,326
     Independent Kenneth R. Lunce, Jr. (Write-in) 0% 3
Total Votes 273,475
Source: Indiana Secretary of State "House of Representatives Election Results"

Democratic Primary

U.S. House, Indiana District 2 Democratic Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBrendan Mullen 54.1% 11,218
Dan Morrison 45.9% 9,519
Total Votes 20,737

Republican Primary

U.S. House of Representatives-Indiana District 2 Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJackie Walorski 72.8% 46,873
Greg Andrews 27.2% 17,522
Total Votes 64,395

Race background

Indiana's 2nd District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[13]

Republican challenger Jackie Walorski has been included in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlights challengers who represent the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[14]

Democratic candidate Brendan Mullen received endorsements from the Indiana Federation of Teachers,[15] the organization VoteVets,[15] The American Association for Justice,[15] The Indiana Democratic State Central Committee,[15] and the Blue Dog Coalition PAC.[15]

Republican Jackie Walorski was endorsed by Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund.[16] On March 13, 2012, Walorski was endorsed by The Republican Second District Central Committee.[17] Walorski has also obtained endorsements from the Eagle Forum, FreedomWorks for America, Indiana Chamber of Commerce, Indiana Right to Life, the National Rifle Association (NRA), and the Susan B. Anthony List.[17]

Green Party candidate Andrew Straw was endorsed by the Indiana Green Party on January 3, 2012.[18]

Libertarian Party candidate Joe Ruiz was endorsed by the Libertarian Party of Indiana on March 24th, 2012

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in Indiana

The newly-drawn map was designed to produce seven districts which are favorable to the Republican Party and two which favor the Democratic Party. According to Roll Call, the 2nd District is the "first House seat of the cycle that Roll Call Politics has rated as likely to flip to the other party..."[19]

According to Roll Call's Race Ratings "The most devastating change for 2nd District Democrats was the loss of Kokomo, a middle-class town with heavy union membership and reliable Donnelly voters. Kokomo is now split between the heavily Republican 4th and 5th Districts."[19] The new district also lost part of LaPorte County, including Michigan City, to the 1st District.[19] Meanwhile, the district picked up Elkhart County.[19]

The new district presented a prime opportunity for Donnelly's 2010 competitor, former state representative Jackie Walorski, whose base south of South Bend is now the 2nd's population center.[19]

The Howey Political Report rated Walorski likely to win this district, after she lost by only a percentage point in 2010. Donnelly's bid for Senate was prompted by the redistricting and the knowledge that he was unlikely to win in 2012.[20]

The new 2nd District was composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[21][22]

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Indiana's 2nd District became more Republican because of redistricting.[23]

  • 2012: 47D / 53R
  • 2010: 51D / 49R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Indiana's 2nd Congressional District has a PVI of R+7, which is the 149th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 50-50 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 61-39 percent over John Kerry (D).[24]

Campaign donors

2012

Jackie Walorski (2012)[25] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[26]April 15, 2012$436,055.47$211,009.50$(81,261.69)$565,803.28
Pre-Primary[27]April 26, 2012$565,803.28$20,490.76$(28,183.76)$558,109.52
Running totals
$231,500.26$(109,445.45)

According to an article in The National Journal, Walorski raised over $330,000 during the second quarter of the year and ended the period with $720,000 cash on hand.[28]

Brendan Mullen (2012)[29] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[30]April 13, 2012$272,960.16$244,696.31$(67,570.54)$450,085.93
Pre-Primary[31]April 26, 2012$450,085.93$13,501.00$(32,226.26)$431,360.67
Running totals
$258,197.31$(99,796.8)

District history

Candidate Ballot Access
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2010

On November 2, 2010, Joe Donnelly won re-election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated Jackie Walorski (R) and Mark Vogel (L) in the general election.[32]

U.S. House, Indiana District 2 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJoe Donnelly Incumbent 48.2% 91,341
     Republican Jackie Walorski 46.8% 88,803
     Libertarian Mark Vogel 5% 9,447
Total Votes 189,591

See also

External links

References

  1. Politico, "2012 Election Map, Indiana"
  2. Indiana Elections Division "2012 Calendar Brochure," accessed July 24, 2012
  3. WNDU.com "UPDATE: Donnelly to run for US Senate in Ind." Accessed December 15, 2011
  4. Indiana Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed July 24, 2012
  5. South End Tribune "Green candidate denied ballot spot," July 27, 2012
  6. Fox 28.com "Brendan Mullen announces run for 2nd Congressional District seat" accessed December 15, 2011
  7. Indiana Secretary of State "Candidate List" accessed February 9, 2012
  8. IndyStar.com "2 GOP rivals lead Burton in fundraising" accessed December 15, 2011
  9. WNDU.com "Walorski to run for 2nd District in 2012" accessed December 15, 2011
  10. Herald Argus "Feikes to run for 2nd District seat" accessed December 15, 2011
  11. Indiana Secretary of State "2012 Primary Election Results," May 8, 2012
  12. eTruth.com "Goshen attorney Straw to run for Congress" accessed December 15, 2011
  13. DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
  14. NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
  15. 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 Brendan Mullen for Congress, "Endorsements," accessed April 13, 2012
  16. Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund "Walorski" Accessed May 1, 2012
  17. 17.0 17.1 Stand with Jackie, "Endorsements," accessed May 1, 2012
  18. eTruth.com "Goshen attorney Straw to run for Congress" Accessed December 15, 2011
  19. 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 Roll Call, "Race Ratings: GOP Poised to Scoop Up a Seat" Accessed February 28, 2012
  20. WIBC, "Redistricting Reshuffles Congressional Races to Watch," Accessed October 16, 2012
  21. Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer "Arizona's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
  22. Labels & Lists "VoterMapping software voter counts"
  23. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Indiana," September 2012
  24. Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
  25. FEC Reports "Jackie Walorski Summary Reports" Accessed July 11, 2012
  26. FEC Reports "April Quarterly" Accessed July 11, 2012
  27. FEC Reports "Pre-Primary" Accessed July 11, 2012
  28. Hotline On Call: National Journal "Hotline Sort: Big Blow to Berkley's Campaign" Accessed July 11, 2012
  29. FEC Reports "Brendan Mullen Summary Reports" Accessed July 14, 2012
  30. FEC Reports "April Quarterly" Accessed July 14, 2012
  31. FEC Reports "Pre-Primary" Accessed July 14, 2012
  32. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"