Iowa gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2014

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Iowa Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
June 3, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Incumbents prior to election:
Terry E. Branstad Republican Party
Kim ReynoldsRepublican Party
Terry Branstad
Kim Reynolds
Iowa State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor/Lieutenant GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Treasurer, Auditor, Agriculture Commissioner

Battleground Races
Iowa House of Representatives
Iowa State Senate

Possible trifecta for Republicans
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State executive offices in Iowa
Flag of Iowa.png
The Iowa gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Iowa Governor Terry E. Branstad (R) and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds (R) are seeking re-election in 2014 and will run on a single ticket in the general election. The winners of the election will serve four-year concurrent terms in office.

Branstad and Reynolds are challenged by four tickets including the Democratic ticket of Jack Hatch and Monica Vernon, the Libertarian Party ticket of Lee Hieb and Tim Watson along with tickets for the Iowa Party and the New Independence Party of Iowa. Branstad first served as governor from 1983 to 1999 and returned to office after defeating incumbent Chet Culver (D) in the 2010 election. Polling results detailed here show Branstad with an average lead of 10 points over Hatch heading into the general election.

The gubernatorial race is not the only race on the November ballot that could shift the balance of power in Iowa. The Iowa House of Representatives and Iowa State Senate have been identified by Ballotpedia as two of the top 20 legislative chambers to watch in 2014. Both chambers and the governor's office could be held by a single party, which would turn Iowa into a state government trifecta. Learn more about the state's most competitive legislative races on the battleground chambers page.

Iowa is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. The primary is closed, but voters are allowed to change their political party affiliation on election day.[1] The primary took place on June 3.

Candidates

Running mates listed together in order of "Governor/Lieutenant Governor"

General election

Republican Party Terry E. Branstad/Kim Reynolds - Incumbent[2]
Democratic Party Jack Hatch/Monica Vernon[3][4][5][6]
Libertarian Party Lee Hieb/Tim Watson[7][8]
Independent (Iowa Party) Jonathan Narcisse/Michael Richards[9]
Independent (New Independence Party of Iowa) Jim Hennager/Mary Krieg[10]

Lost in primary

Republican Party Tom Hoefling[11]

Results

Primary election

Republican primary

Governor of Iowa, Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTerry Branstad Incumbent 83% 129,712
Tom Hoefling 16.8% 26,284
Write-in 0.2% 279
Total Votes 156,275
Election Results Via:Iowa Secretary of State.

Democratic primary

  • Uncontested

Race background

Polls, approval ratings

Before Branstad formally launched his campaign, polls showed him in excellent standing for re-election, with an average lead of 20 percentage points in hypothetical general election match-ups.[12] Branstad had looked considerably less secure around the time ex-Democratic challenger Tyler Olson entered the race in July 2013, with only 43 percent of polled voters saying they believed the governor deserved to be re-elected and 54 percent answering that he held office long enough, even though 51 percent approved of his performance. A December 2013 poll by Quinnipiac University gave him a boost of 8 percent in both approval and "deserves to be re-elected" categories.[13][14] By mid-March 2014, polls continued to show Branstad sitting comfortably at 63 percent job approval and Hatch trailing behind by 15 points.[15]

A string of scandals inside the Branstad administration caused a steep downturn in the incumbent's job approval and trust rating among Iowa voters in spring 2014. In short order, Branstad was accused of using his office to commit or facilitate a variety of crimes and improprieties including the wrongful firing of a state trooper who nabbed the governor for speeding, crooked dealings with a state judge, abuse in an Iowa juvenile home and giving payments to fired state employees who claimed to be victims of political revenge. Amid the resulting storm of bad press directed at Branstad and his office, the governor maintained a policy of denying knowledge or involvement in these alleged transgressions. According to an April 22 Public Policy Poll for Progress Iowa, 83 percent of Iowa voters said they were either somewhat or very aware of the scandals and 56 percent indicated they were unconvinced by Branstad's official line of denial.[16] In addition, 30 percent of respondents said they thought Branstad should resign, while the rest were split almost evenly between believing he should stay and "Not sure." As of April, besides shedding voters' doubt on Branstad's honesty and integrity, the allegations cost the jobs of numerous state department leaders and prompted state lawmakers to call for an independent investigation.[16][17] Branstad closed out the month leading Hatch 45-43, according to a poll conducted on behalf of the conservative-leaning Daily Caller. The scandals have not weighed down Branstad's polling numbers since April, with his lead growing to 22 percent by a September poll from Loras College.[18]

Candidate withdrawals

Democratic State Rep. Tyler Olson declared his candidacy for governor in July 2013 and was considered a strong contender for the party's nomination before withdrawing from the race in December 2013.[19] He decided to drop out following the announcement of his separation from wife Sarah Olson, who had been an instrumental part of his family-oriented campaign.[20][21] Olson's withdrawal was followed soon thereafter by former state Sen. Bob Krause's announcement he was shutting down his campaign. Their absences cleared the path for remaining Democratic hopeful Jack Hatch to face Branstad in the general election. Krause immediately gave Hatch his support, while Olson declined to endorse Hatch upon dropping out of the race.[19][22]

Polls

General election
Polls in October 2014

Governor of Iowa: Branstad v. Hatch
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Jack Hatch (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
NBC News/Marist
October 2014
58%36%6%+/-2.81,235
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
October 16-23, 2014
50%37%13%+/-32,322
AVERAGES 54% 36.5% 9.5% +/-2.9 1,778.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Polls through September 2014

Governor of Iowa: Branstad vs. Hatch
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Jack Hatch (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University Poll
(December 10-15, 2013)
49%33%18%+/-2.41,617
Selzer & Company/The Des Moines Register Poll
(December 8-11, 2013)
52%29%19%+/-3.8650
Quinnipiac University Poll
(March 5-10, 2014)
46%35%15%+/-2.61,411
Suffolk
(April 3-8, 2014)
42%32%24%+/-3.5800
Public Policy Poll/Progress Iowa*
(April 19-20, 2014)
43%38%19%+/-3.8677
Public Policy Poll/Progress Iowa Continued*
(April 19-20, 2014)
41%40%19%+/-3.8677
Vox Populi/Daily Caller Poll
(April 22-24, 2014)
45%43%12%+/-4.0600
Hickman Analytics Poll
(April 24-30, 2014)
50%40%10%+/-4.4500
Global Strategy Group
(May 13-15, 2014)
47%40%13%+/-4.0602
Public Policy Poll
(May 15-19, 2014)
48%40%12%+/-3.3914
Vox Populi Polling
(June 4-5, 2014)
51%40%9%+/-3.8667
Rasmussen
(June 4-5, 2014)
49%40%8%+/-4.0750
Quinnipiac University Poll
(June 12-16, 2014)
47%38%14%+/-2.71,277
NBC News/Marist Poll
(July 16, 2014)
53%38%10%+/-2.51,599
Loras College Poll
(September 2-5, 2014)
55.5%33.5%11%+/-2.821,200
AVERAGES 47.9% 37.3% 14.2% +/-3.43 929.4
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

*The April 19-20 Progress Iowa poll is displayed above as two separate polls to delineate responses registered before and after respondents were provided information on recent scandals effecting the administration of Gov. Branstad.

Hypothetical match-ups

Governor of Iowa: Branstad vs. Krause
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Bob Olson (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University Poll
(December 10-15, 2013)
49%31%19%+/-2.41,617
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Iowa: Branstad vs. Olson
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Tyler Olson (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University Poll
(December 10-15, 2013)
50%32%18%+/-2.41,617
Selzer & Company/The Des Moines Register Poll
(December 8-11, 2013)
51%28%21%+/-3.8650
AVERAGES 50.5% 30% 19.5% +/-3.1 1,133.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: An asterisk (*) denotes incumbent status.

Campaign media

Ad spending

The Wesleyan Media Project published a report on September 30, 2014, highlighting spending on gubernatorial races from September 12-25. This report found that Democratic and Republican groups spent a total of $46.84 million on TV ads in 15 states with gubernatorial elections. The following chart details the group's findings including spending amounts and number of ads:[23]

Note: A bolded number indicates the highest total for this category. A number in italics is the lowest total for this category.

Spending on TV ads, September 12-25, 2014
State Total # of ads  % Democratic-leaning ads  % GOP-leaning ads Total spending-Democratic leaning (in millions of $) Total spending-GOP leaning (in millions of $)
Colorado 2,460 83.1 16.9 1.35 0.39
Connecticut 2,312 61.7 38.3 1.48 0.89
Florida 20,111 38.5 61.5 4.07 6.64
Georgia 4,625 51.1 48.9 1.43 0.99
Illinois 7,793 63.5 36.5 4.17 3.5
Iowa 2,134 47.5 52.5 0.25 0.38
Kansas 5,024 45.7 54.3 0.85 1.17
Maine 3,281 42.3 57.7 0.46 0.32
Michigan 6,767 33.9 66.1 1.14 2.3
Minnesota 1,974 83.9 16.1 0.65 0.29
New York 4,926 61 39 2.18 0.88
Pennsylvania 3,263 50.9 49.1 1.58 1.23
South Carolina 2,883 39.1 60.9 0.33 0.38
Texas 10,330 33.4 66.6 2.24 2.93
Wisconsin 7,374 63.3 36.7 1.36 1.01
TOTALS 85,257 48.2 51.8 23.54 23.3

Past elections

2010

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Iowa, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTerry E. Branstad/Kim Reynolds 52.8% 592,494
     Democratic Chet Culver/Patty Judge Incumbent 43.2% 484,798
     Independent Jonathan Narcisse/Richard Marlar 1.9% 20,859
     Libertarian Eric Cooper/Nick Weltha 1.3% 14,398
     Independent Gregory James Hughes/Robin Prior-Calef 0.3% 3,884
     Independent Write-in votes 0.3% 2,823
     Socialist David Rosenfeld/Helen Meyers 0.2% 2,757
Total Votes 1,122,013

Key deadlines

Deadline Event
March 14, 2014 Filing deadline (Major party candidates)
June 3, 2014 Primary election
August 15, 2014 Filing deadline (other candidates)
November 4, 2014 General election
December 1, 2014 State Canvass of general election votes deadline
January 13, 2015 Inauguration day for state executive officials in general election

Recent news

This section displays the most recent stories in a Google news search for the term "Iowa + Governor + elections"

All stories may not be relevant to this page due to the nature of the search engine.

Iowa Gubernatorial Election News Feed

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See also

External links

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Suggest a link

References

  1. Iowa Secretary of State Website, "Voter Registration FAQ," accessed January 3, 2014
  2. Branstad and Reynolds 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed November 7, 2013
  3. Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate Listing by Office 2014 General Election," accessed July 24, 2014
  4. Jack Hatch for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 17, 2013
  5. The Daily Iowan, "Iowa senator announces campaign for governor," September 17, 2013
  6. SunHerald.com, "Democratic state senator launches run for governor," September 16, 2013
  7. Dr. Lee Hieb for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed March 17, 2014
  8. Official website of the Libertarian Party, "Libertarian Party Candidates 2014," accessed July 25, 2014
  9. Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate Listing by Office 2014 General Election," accessed August 6, 2014
  10. Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate Listing by Office November 4, 2014 General Election," accessed August 21, 2014
  11. Tom Hoefling for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 5, 2013
  12. The Des Moines-Register, "Iowa Poll: Iowans widely approve of state's direction, Branstad's performance," December 16, 2013
  13. Quinnipiac University, Iowa Voters Like Gov. Branstad, But Say It's Time To Go, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Possible 2014 Challengers Are Largely Unknown, July 19, 2013
  14. Quinnipiac University Poll, "December 17, 2013 - Iowa Gov's Approval, Re-election Prospects Improve, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Christie Tops Clinton By 5 Points In 2016 Race," December 17, 2013
  15. Des Moines Register, "Iowa Poll: Support for Branstad up; Hatch sees little progress," March 8, 2014
  16. 16.0 16.1 Progress Iowa, "NEW POLL: Branstad Approval Rating Plummets After Scandals," April 22, 2014
  17. The Des Moines Register, "Branstad fires state director over secret settlement scandal," April 8, 2014
  18. Daily Caller, "Iowa Governor Poll," April 22-24, 2014
  19. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named withdrew
  20. Tyler Olson for Governor 2014, "Homepage," accessed July 11, 2013
  21. The Des Moines-Register, "Iowa Poll: Iowans widely approve of state's direction, Branstad's performance," December 16, 2013
  22. The Des Moines-Register, "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch," January 2, 2013
  23. Wesleyan Media Project, "GOP Groups Keeping Senate Contests Close," September 30, 2014