Iowa gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2014

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Iowa Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date:
June 3, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

November 4 Election Winners:
Terry E. Branstad Republican Party
Kim ReynoldsRepublican Party
Incumbents prior to election:
Terry E. Branstad Republican Party
Kim ReynoldsRepublican Party
Terry Branstad
Kim Reynolds
Iowa State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor/Lieutenant GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Treasurer, Auditor, Agriculture Commissioner

Battleground Races
Iowa House of Representatives
Iowa State Senate

Divided government
WhoRunsTheStates Badge.jpg
State executive offices in Iowa
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The Iowa gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014. Iowa Governor Terry E. Branstad (R) and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds (R) were up for re-election in 2014 and ran successfully on a single ticket in the general election. Branstad and Reynolds won new four-year terms in office.

Branstad and Reynolds were challenged by four tickets including the Democratic ticket of Jack Hatch and Monica Vernon, the Libertarian Party ticket of Lee Hieb and Tim Watson along with tickets for the Iowa Party and the New Independence Party of Iowa. Branstad first served as governor from 1983 to 1999 and returned to office after defeating incumbent Chet Culver (D) in the 2010 election. Polling results detailed here showed Branstad with an average lead of 10 points over Hatch heading into the general election.

The gubernatorial race was not the only race on the November ballot that could have shifted the balance of power in Iowa. The Iowa House of Representatives and Iowa State Senate were identified by Ballotpedia as two of the top 20 legislative chambers to watch in 2014. The Iowa House of Representatives stayed in Democratic hands after the 2014 elections, preventing trifecta status for Republicans.

Iowa is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. The primary is closed, but voters are allowed to change their political party affiliation on election day.[1] The primary took place on June 3.

Candidates

Running mates listed together in order of "Governor/Lieutenant Governor"

General election

Republican Party Terry E. Branstad/Kim Reynolds - Incumbents Green check mark transparent.png[2]
Democratic Party Jack Hatch/Monica Vernon[3][4][5][6]
Libertarian Party Lee Hieb/Tim Watson[7][8]
Independent (Iowa Party) Jonathan Narcisse/Michael Richards[9]
Independent (New Independence Party of Iowa) Jim Hennager/Mary Krieg[10]

Lost in primary

Republican Party Tom Hoefling[11]

Results

General election

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Iowa, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTerry Branstad/Kim Reynolds Incumbent 59% 666,023
     Democratic Jack Hatch/Monica Vernon 37.3% 420,778
     Libertarian Lee Hieb/Tim Watson 1.8% 20,319
     New Independent Party Jim Hennager/Mary Krieg 0.9% 10,582
     Iowa Party Jonathan Narcisse/Michael Richards 0.9% 10,239
     Nonpartisan Write-in votes 0.1% 1,093
Total Votes 1,129,034
Election Results via Iowa Secretary of State.

Primary election

Republican primary

Governor of Iowa, Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTerry Branstad Incumbent 83% 129,752
Tom Hoefling 16.8% 26,299
Write-in 0.2% 294
Total Votes 156,345
Election Results via Iowa Secretary of State.

Democratic primary

  • Uncontested

Race background

Incumbent standing before re-election

Before Branstad formally launched his campaign, polls showed him in excellent standing for re-election, with an average lead of 20 percentage points in hypothetical general election match-ups.[12] Branstad had looked considerably less secure around the time ex-Democratic challenger Tyler Olson entered the race in July 2013, with only 43 percent of polled voters saying they believed the governor deserved to be re-elected and 54 percent answering that he held office long enough, even though 51 percent approved of his performance. A December 2013 poll by Quinnipiac University gave him a boost of 8 percent in both approval and "deserves to be re-elected" categories.[13][14] By mid-March 2014, polls continued to show Branstad sitting comfortably at 63 percent job approval and Hatch trailing behind by 15 points.[15]

Candidate withdrawals

Democratic State Rep. Tyler Olson declared his candidacy for governor in July 2013 and was considered a strong contender for the party's nomination before withdrawing from the race in December 2013.[16] He decided to drop out following the announcement of his separation from wife Sarah Olson, who had been an instrumental part of his family-oriented campaign.[17][18] Olson's withdrawal was followed soon thereafter by former state Sen. Bob Krause's announcement he was shutting down his campaign. Their absences cleared the path for remaining Democratic hopeful Jack Hatch to face Branstad in the general election. Krause immediately gave Hatch his support, while Olson declined to endorse Hatch upon dropping out of the race.[16][19]

Polls

General election
Polls in October 2014

Governor of Iowa: Branstad v. Hatch
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Jack Hatch (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
NBC News/Marist
October 2014
58%36%6%+/-2.81,235
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
October 16-23, 2014
50%37%13%+/-32,322
AVERAGES 54% 36.5% 9.5% +/-2.9 1,778.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Polls through September 2014

Governor of Iowa: Branstad vs. Hatch
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Jack Hatch (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University Poll
(December 10-15, 2013)
49%33%18%+/-2.41,617
Selzer & Company/The Des Moines Register Poll
(December 8-11, 2013)
52%29%19%+/-3.8650
Quinnipiac University Poll
(March 5-10, 2014)
46%35%15%+/-2.61,411
Suffolk
(April 3-8, 2014)
42%32%24%+/-3.5800
Public Policy Poll/Progress Iowa*
(April 19-20, 2014)
43%38%19%+/-3.8677
Public Policy Poll/Progress Iowa Continued*
(April 19-20, 2014)
41%40%19%+/-3.8677
Vox Populi/Daily Caller Poll
(April 22-24, 2014)
45%43%12%+/-4.0600
Hickman Analytics Poll
(April 24-30, 2014)
50%40%10%+/-4.4500
Global Strategy Group
(May 13-15, 2014)
47%40%13%+/-4.0602
Public Policy Poll
(May 15-19, 2014)
48%40%12%+/-3.3914
Vox Populi Polling
(June 4-5, 2014)
51%40%9%+/-3.8667
Rasmussen
(June 4-5, 2014)
49%40%8%+/-4.0750
Quinnipiac University Poll
(June 12-16, 2014)
47%38%14%+/-2.71,277
NBC News/Marist Poll
(July 16, 2014)
53%38%10%+/-2.51,599
Loras College Poll
(September 2-5, 2014)
55.5%33.5%11%+/-2.821,200
AVERAGES 47.9% 37.3% 14.2% +/-3.43 929.4
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

*The April 19-20 Progress Iowa poll is displayed above as two separate polls to delineate responses registered before and after respondents were provided information on recent scandals effecting the administration of Gov. Branstad.

Hypothetical match-ups

Governor of Iowa: Branstad vs. Krause
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Bob Olson (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University Poll
(December 10-15, 2013)
49%31%19%+/-2.41,617
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Iowa: Branstad vs. Olson
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Tyler Olson (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University Poll
(December 10-15, 2013)
50%32%18%+/-2.41,617
Selzer & Company/The Des Moines Register Poll
(December 8-11, 2013)
51%28%21%+/-3.8650
AVERAGES 50.5% 30% 19.5% +/-3.1 1,133.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Note: An asterisk (*) denotes incumbent status.

Campaign media

Ad spending

The Wesleyan Media Project published a report on September 30, 2014, highlighting spending on gubernatorial races from September 12-25. This report found that Democratic and Republican groups spent a total of $46.84 million on TV ads in 15 states with gubernatorial elections. The following chart details the group's findings, including spending amounts and number of ads:[20]

Note: A bolded number indicates the highest total for this category. A number in italics is the lowest total for this category.

Spending on TV ads, September 12-25, 2014
State Total # of ads  % Democratic-leaning ads  % GOP-leaning ads Total spending-Democratic leaning (in millions of $) Total spending-GOP leaning (in millions of $)
Colorado 2,460 83.1 16.9 1.35 0.39
Connecticut 2,312 61.7 38.3 1.48 0.89
Florida 20,111 38.5 61.5 4.07 6.64
Georgia 4,625 51.1 48.9 1.43 0.99
Illinois 7,793 63.5 36.5 4.17 3.5
Iowa 2,134 47.5 52.5 0.25 0.38
Kansas 5,024 45.7 54.3 0.85 1.17
Maine 3,281 42.3 57.7 0.46 0.32
Michigan 6,767 33.9 66.1 1.14 2.3
Minnesota 1,974 83.9 16.1 0.65 0.29
New York 4,926 61 39 2.18 0.88
Pennsylvania 3,263 50.9 49.1 1.58 1.23
South Carolina 2,883 39.1 60.9 0.33 0.38
Texas 10,330 33.4 66.6 2.24 2.93
Wisconsin 7,374 63.3 36.7 1.36 1.01
TOTALS 85,257 48.2 51.8 23.54 23.3

Past elections

2010

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Iowa, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTerry E. Branstad/Kim Reynolds 52.8% 592,494
     Democratic Chet Culver/Patty Judge Incumbent 43.2% 484,798
     Independent Jonathan Narcisse/Richard Marlar 1.9% 20,859
     Libertarian Eric Cooper/Nick Weltha 1.3% 14,398
     Independent Gregory James Hughes/Robin Prior-Calef 0.3% 3,884
     Independent Write-in votes 0.3% 2,823
     Socialist David Rosenfeld/Helen Meyers 0.2% 2,757
Total Votes 1,122,013

Voter turnout

Political scientist Michael McDonald's United States Elections Project studied voter turnout in the 2014 election by looking at the percentage of eligible voters who headed to the polls. McDonald used voting-eligible population (VEP), or the number of eligible voters independent of their current registration status, to calculate turnout rates in each state on November 4. He also incorporated ballots cast for the highest office in each state into his calculation. He estimated that 81,687,059 ballots were cast in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, representing 35.9 percent of the VEP.[21] By comparison, 61.6 percent of VEP voted in the 2008 presidential election and 58.2 percent of VEP voted in the 2012 presidential election.[22]

Quick facts

  • According to PBS Newshour, voter turnout in the 2014 midterms was the lowest since the 1942 midterms, which took place during the nation's involvement in World War II.[23]
  • Forty-three states and the District of Columbia failed to surpass 50 percent turnout in McDonald's analysis.
  • The three states with the lowest turnout according to McDonald's analysis were Texas (28.3 percent), Tennessee (28.6 percent) and Indiana (28.8 percent).
  • Maine (58.5 percent), Wisconsin (56.5 percent) and Colorado (54.5 percent) were the three states with the highest turnout.
  • There were only 12 states that increased voter turnout in 2014 compared to the 2010 midterm elections.[24]
Voter turnout rates, 2014
State Total votes counted  % voter eligible population Top statewide office up for election Size of lead (Raw votes) Size of lead (%)
Alabama 1,191,274 33.2 Governor 320,319 27.2
Alaska 285,431 54.4 Governor 4,004 1.6
Arizona 1,537,671 34.1 Governor 143,951 12.5
Arkansas 852,642 40.1 Governor 118,664 14
California 7,513,972 30.8 Governor 1,065,748 17.8
Colorado 2,080,071 54.5 Governor 50,395 2.4
Connecticut 1,096,509 42.5 Governor 26,603 2.5
Delaware 234,038 34.4 Attorney General 31,155 13.6
District of Columbia 177,176 35.8 Mayor 27,934 19
Florida 6,026,802 43.3 Governor 66,127 1.1
Georgia 2,596,947 38.5 Governor 202,685 8
Hawaii 369,554 36.5 Governor 45,323 12.4
Idaho 445,307 39.6 Governor 65,852 14.9
Illinois 3,680,417 40.9 Governor 171,900 4.9
Indiana 1,387,622 28.8 Secretary of State 234,978 17.8
Iowa 1,142,284 50.2 Governor 245,548 21.8
Kansas 887,023 43.4 Governor 33,052 3.9
Kentucky 1,435,868 44 U.S. Senate 222,096 15.5
Louisiana 1,472,039 43.8 U.S. Senate 16,401 1.1
Maine 616,996 58.5 Governor 29,820 4.9
Maryland 1,733,177 41.5 Governor 88,648 6.1
Massachusetts 2,186,789 44.6 Governor 40,361 1.9
Michigan 3,188,956 43.2 Governor 129,547 4.3
Minnesota 1,992,613 50.5 Governor 109,776 5.6
Mississippi 631,858 28.9 U.S. Senate 141,234 33
Missouri 1,426,303 31.8 Auditor 684,074 53.6
Montana 373,831 47.3 U.S. Senate 65,262 17.9
Nebraska 552,115 41.5 Governor 97,678 18.7
Nevada 547,349 29 Governor 255,793 46.7
New Hampshire 495,565 48.4 Governor 24,924 5.2
New Jersey 1,955,042 32.5 N/A N/A N/A
New Mexico 512,805 35.7 Governor 73,868 14.6
New York 3,930,310 29 Governor 476,252 13.4
North Carolina 2,939,767 41.2 U.S. Senate 48,511 1.7
North Dakota 255,128 45 U.S. House At-large seat 42,214 17.1
Ohio 3,149,876 36.2 Governor 933,235 30.9
Oklahoma 824,831 29.8 Governor 122,060 14.7
Oregon 1,541,782 53.5 Governor 59,029 4.5
Pennsylvania 3,495,866 36 Governor 339,261 9.8
Rhode Island 329,212 42.2 Governor 14,346 4.5
South Carolina 1,261,611 35.2 Governor 179,089 14.6
South Dakota 282,291 44.9 Governor 124,865 45.1
Tennessee 1,374,065 28.6 Governor 642,214 47.5
Texas 4,727,208 28.3 Governor 957,973 20.4
Utah 577,973 30.2 Attorney General 173,819 35.2
Vermont 193,087 38.8 Governor 2,095 1.1
Virginia 2,194,346 36.6 U.S. Senate 16,727 0.8
Washington 2,123,901 43.1 N/A N/A N/A
West Virginia 451,498 31.2 U.S. Senate 124,667 27.6
Wisconsin 2,410,314 56.5 Governor 137,607 5.7
Wyoming 168,390 39.3 Governor 52,703 33.6

Note: Information from the United States Elections Project was last updated on December 16, 2014.

Key deadlines

Deadline Event
March 14, 2014 Filing deadline (Major party candidates)
June 3, 2014 Primary election
August 15, 2014 Filing deadline (other candidates)
November 4, 2014 General election
December 1, 2014 State Canvass of general election votes deadline
January 1, 2015 Inauguration day for attorney general, secretary of state, auditor and treasurer
January 13, 2015 Inauguration day for governor and lieutenant governor

Recent news

This section displays the most recent stories in a Google news search for the term "Iowa + Governor + elections"

All stories may not be relevant to this page due to the nature of the search engine.

Iowa Gubernatorial Election News Feed

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See also

External links

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Suggest a link

References

  1. Iowa Secretary of State Website, "Voter Registration FAQ," accessed January 3, 2014
  2. Branstad and Reynolds 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed November 7, 2013
  3. Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate Listing by Office 2014 General Election," accessed July 24, 2014
  4. Jack Hatch for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 17, 2013
  5. The Daily Iowan, "Iowa senator announces campaign for governor," September 17, 2013
  6. SunHerald.com, "Democratic state senator launches run for governor," September 16, 2013
  7. Dr. Lee Hieb for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed March 17, 2014
  8. Official website of the Libertarian Party, "Libertarian Party Candidates 2014," accessed July 25, 2014
  9. Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate Listing by Office 2014 General Election," accessed August 6, 2014
  10. Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate Listing by Office November 4, 2014 General Election," accessed August 21, 2014
  11. Tom Hoefling for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 5, 2013
  12. The Des Moines-Register, "Iowa Poll: Iowans widely approve of state's direction, Branstad's performance," December 16, 2013
  13. Quinnipiac University, Iowa Voters Like Gov. Branstad, But Say It's Time To Go, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Possible 2014 Challengers Are Largely Unknown, July 19, 2013
  14. Quinnipiac University Poll, "December 17, 2013 - Iowa Gov's Approval, Re-election Prospects Improve, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Christie Tops Clinton By 5 Points In 2016 Race," December 17, 2013
  15. Des Moines Register, "Iowa Poll: Support for Branstad up; Hatch sees little progress," March 8, 2014
  16. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named withdrew
  17. Tyler Olson for Governor 2014, "Homepage," accessed July 11, 2013
  18. The Des Moines-Register, "Iowa Poll: Iowans widely approve of state's direction, Branstad's performance," December 16, 2013
  19. The Des Moines-Register, "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch," January 2, 2013
  20. Wesleyan Media Project, "GOP Groups Keeping Senate Contests Close," September 30, 2014
  21. United States Elections Project, "2014 November General Election Turnout Rates," November 7, 2014
  22. TIME, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low," November 10, 2014
  23. PBS, "2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years," November 10, 2014
  24. U.S. News & World Report, "Midterm Turnout Down in 2014," November 5, 2014