Josh Umbehr

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Josh A. Umbehr
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Former candidate for
Lieutenant Governor of Kansas
PartyLibertarian
Elections and appointments
Last electionNovember 4, 2014
Term limitsN/A
Education
Bachelor'sKansas State University
Personal
ProfessionPhysician-owner of Atlas MD
Websites
Personal website
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Josh Umbehr was a Libertarian candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Kansas in the 2014 elections.[1] He shared the ticket with his father and 2014 Libertarian gubernatorial nominee Keen Umbehr in the general election. They faced the Republican ticket of incumbents Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer and the Democratic ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking in the general election.[2] Josh Umbehr lost the general election on November 4, 2014.

Biography

Umbehr is a physician and the owner of Kansas direct care practice Atlas MD. He founded the practice in 2010 after completing his residency.[3]

In 1999, Umbehr began his undergraduate degree at Kansas State University alongside his father. Fifteen years later, the Umbehrs were nominated together by the Kansas Libertarian Party to share the 2014 gubernatorial/lieutenant gubernatorial ticket in the general election.[3]

Elections

2014

See also: Kansas Lieutenant Gubernatorial election, 2014

Umbehr ran for election as Lieutenant Governor of Kansas. He secured the Libertarian nomination at the state party convention on April 26, 2014, along with running mate and father, Keen Umbehr. The father-and-son ticket faced the Republican ticket of incumbents Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer and the Democratic ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking in the general election. The general election took place November 4, 2014.

Results

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Kansas, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSam Brownback/Jeff Colyer Incumbent 49.8% 433,196
     Democratic Paul Davis/Jill Docking 46.1% 401,100
     Libertarian Keen Umbehr/Josh Umbehr 4% 35,206
Total Votes 869,502
Election Results via Kansas Secretary of State.

Race background

Candidate filing period

On June 2, the filing window for Republican and Democratic candidates pursuing a place on the 2014 Kansas gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial ballot came to a close. One set of Republicans - led by landscape contractor Jennifer Winn - filed to take on the incumbent duo in the August 5 primary election. Meanwhile, Paul Davis, the state House Minority Leader, along with his running mate Jill Docking, were the only Democratic pair to enter the race, earning a free pass to the general election. Also joining the November lineup in advance of the primary election were Libertarian candidates Keen and Josh Umbehr. The father and son ticket knocked out a single set of opponents for their party's nomination at the Kansas Libertarian Party convention, which took place April 26, 2014.[4][5]

Highly competitive race

This contest was considered to be highly competitive, with match-up polls and race ratings dating back to the fall of 2013 underscoring the legitimacy of Davis' threat. One of the first publications to declare Brownback's vulnerability was The Washington Post, which named Kansas as one of its top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014, citing Brownback's poor approval ratings, "well shy of 50 percent."[6] Indeed, Brownback's approval ratings had been hovering around 35 percent since January 2012.[7]

Kansas was one of nine gubernatorial seats to be flagged as a "toss-up" or vulnerable for partisan switch in the 2014 cycle, based on polling data and projections courtesy of The Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Governing, among others.[8][9][10]

Republican endorsements for Davis

By July 2014, Brownback's troubles crested when over 100 influential Republicans defected to the Davis campaign. The self-styled "Republicans for Kansas Values," comprised of GOP retirees and current officeholders, explained the unorthodox endorsement of Brownback's Democratic challenger as a response to steep cuts to education funding and tax cuts that contributed to a $340 million budget shortfall during the 2014 fiscal year.[11] Rather than make it a partisan matter, the race "must be about electing a moderate, commonsense Kansan as governor," stated ex-state Senate president Dick Bond on behalf of the group.[12] Polling in July also indicated that 29 percent of Republicans would vote for Davis, which marked a five-point increase from the previous month. These polls, conducted by Survey USA/KSN News, also showed Brownback losing by an average of seven points. In contrast, YouGov poll in July that showed a 10-point lead for Brownback. Polling experts and representatives of each campaign commented on how divergent polling methodologies can yield seemingly irreconcilable results. In this case, such disparities caused a rise in skepticism about the reliability of polling data in the final approach to the November general election, which Brownback ultimately won.[13]

Polls

Governor of Kansas - All candidates
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)Keen Umbehr(L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
June 19-23, 2014
41%47%5%7%+/-3.11,068
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
July 23, 2014
40%48%5%7%+/-2.91,208
Public Policy Polling
August 14-17, 2014
37%39%9%15%+/-3.3903
SurveyUSA/KSN-TV
September 4-7, 2014
40%47%5%7%+/-4.2555
Public Policy Polling
September 11-14, 2014
38%42%7%14%+/-2.71,328
Fort Hays State University
September 10-27, 2014
36.5%38.8%8.5%16%+/-3.8952
NBC News/Marist Poll
October 2014
43%44%4%8%+/-3.9636
SurveyUSA/KSN-TV
October 2-5, 2014
42%47%4%7%+/-4.3775
Public Policy Polling
October 9-12, 2014
42%42%6%10%+/-31,081
Rasmussen Reports
October 20-21, 2014
45%52%1%2%+/-3960
NBC News/Marist
October 24, 2014
44%45%5%7%+/-3.6757
KSN/SurveyUSA
October 28, 2014
43%46%5%7%+/-4623
AVERAGES 40.96% 44.82% 5.38% 8.92% +/-3.48 903.83
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates and undecided
Poll Sam Brownback * (R) Paul Davis (D)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
{September 20-October 1, 2014)
45%42%12%+/-32,013
Gravis Marketing
(September 30-October 1, 2014)
40%48%12%+/-3850
Monmouth University
(October 16-19, 2014)
45%50%5%+/-4.7429
Gravis Marketing
(October 20-21, 2014)
44%49%7%+/-31,124
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
{October 16-23, 2014)
43%40%17%+/-41,973
AVERAGES 43.4% 45.8% 10.6% +/-3.54 1,277.8
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates, other and undecided
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)OtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
CBS/NYT/YouGov (Without leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
47%37%3%2%+/--1,274
CBS/NYT/YouGov (With leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
52%40%3%2%+/--1,274
Rasmussen
August 6-7, 2014
41%51%3%5%+/-4.0750
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R-Brownback)
August 17-30, 2014
43%42%0%0%+/-4.3500
CBS/NYT/YouGov
August 18-September 2, 2014
47%40%2%11%+/-5.0839
Public Policy Polling (Umbehr supporters reallocated
September 11-14, 2014
39%45%0%15%+/-2.71,328
AVERAGES 44.83% 42.5% 1.83% 5.83% +/-2.67 994.17
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates and "third party" category
Poll Sam Brownback/Jeff Coyler (R) Paul Davis/Jill Docking (D)Third PartyUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA Poll
(October 23-24, 2013)
39%43%12%6%+/-4.4511
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

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External links

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References