Kansas Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial election, 2014

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Kansas Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
August 5, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Incumbents prior to election:
Gov. Sam Brownback Republican Party
Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer Republican Party
Gov. Sam Brownback
Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer
Kansas State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor/Lieutenant GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner

Current trifecta for Republicans
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State executive offices in Kansas
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The Kansas Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback and Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer were first elected on a joint ticket in 2010. They are seeking re-election together in 2014.

The winners of the election will serve 4-year terms in office.

Kansas is one of 12 states to use a strictly closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[1][2][3]

The Kansas Governor's race has been rated a "Toss-up" by The Cook Political Report and Governing, among numerous other political analysts and publications, current as of September 2014.[4][5][6][7][8][9][10]

The competitive gubernatorial contest is the only race on the November ballot that threatens to shift the partisan balance of power in Kansas. Both chambers of the Kansas State Legislature and the governor's office are currently held by the Republican Party, making Kansas a state government trifecta. The Kansas House of Representatives and Kansas State Senate are considered safe-Republican heading into the 2014 elections. With the governorship facing a potential switch to Democrat, Kansas could lose its trifecta status. (Learn more about the state's most competitive legislative races on the battleground chambers page.)

Candidates

Running mates listed together in order of "Governor/Lieutenant Governor"

General election

Lost in primary

Results

Primary election

Republican primary

Governor/Lieutenant Governor of Kansas, Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngSam Brownback/Jeff Colyer Incumbent 63.3% 164,319
Jennifer Winn/Robin Lais 36.7% 95,373
Total Votes 259,692
Election Results Via:Kansas Secretary of State. Vote totals above are unofficial and reflect 100% precincts reporting.

Democratic primary

  • Uncontested


Race background

First term Republican Governor Sam Brownback is seeking re-election in 2014; re-teaming with his 2010 running mate and current Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer for the campaign.

On June 2, the filing window for Republican and Democratic candidates pursuing a place on the 2014 Kansas gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial ballot came to a close. One set of Republicans - led by landscape contractor Jennifer Winn - filed to take on the incumbent duo in the August 5 primary election. Meanwhile, Paul Davis, the state House Minority Leader, along with his running mate Jill Docking, were the only Democratic pair to enter the race, earning a free pass to the general election. Also joining the November lineup in advance of the primary election were Libertarian candidates Keen and Josh Umbehr. The father and son ticket knocked out a single set of opponents for their party's nomination at the Kansas Libertarian Party convention, which took place April 26, 2014.[23][24]

This contest is considered to be highly competitive; match-up polls and race ratings dating back to the fall of 2013 have continually underscored the legitimacy of Davis' threat to Brownback's chances of winning a second term in the 2014 general election. One of the first to declare Brownback's vulnerability was The Washington Post, which named Kansas as one of its top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014, citing Brownback's poor approval ratings as "well shy of 50 percent."[25] Indeed, Brownback's approval ratings had been hovering around 35 percent since January 2012.[26]

By July 2014, one month before the primary, Brownback's troubles crested when over 100 influential Republicans defected to Davis' side. The self-styled "Republicans for Kansas Values," comprised of GOP retirees and current officeholders, explained the unorthodox endorsement of Brownback's Democratic challenger was motivated by the governor's push for various steep cuts to education funding as well as tax cuts—resulting in a shortfall of $340 million in tax revenue for the 2014 fiscal year—despite fervent admonitions from the party's centrist contingent.[27] Rather than make it a partisan matter, the race "must be about electing a moderate, commonsense Kansan as governor," stated ex-state Senate president Dick Bond on behalf of the group.[28] Furthermore, the month of July brought the number of registered Republicans who say they would vote for Davis up to 29 percent, a five point increase from the previous month, according to successive SurveyUSA/KSN News polls, which also showed Brownback trailing Davis by six and eight points, respectively. A YouGov poll conducted contemporaneously over the internet was released soon thereafter and offered a starkly contrasting view of the race, giving Brownback a ten point lead over Davis, his biggest yet this cycle. Polling experts and representatives of each campaign commented on how the polls' differing methodologies can yield seemingly irreconcilable results. In this case, such disparities may cause many who follow the race to regard polls more skeptically as the election season progresses.[29]

Kansas is one of nine gubernatorial seats to be flagged as a toss-up or vulnerable for partisan switch in the 2014 cycle, based on polling data and projections courtesy of The Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Governing, among others, current as of September 2014.[30][31][32]


Polls

Governor of Kansas
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)OtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
CBS/NYT/YouGov (Without leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
47%37%3%2%+/--1,274
CBS/NYT/YouGov (With leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
52%40%3%2%+/--1,274
Rasmussen
August 6-7, 2014
41%51%3%5%+/-4.0750
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R-Brownback)
August 17-30, 2014
43%42%0%0%+/-4.3500
CBS/NYT/YouGov
August 18-September 2, 2014
47%40%2%11%+/-5.0839
Public Policy Polling (Umbehr supporters reallocated
September 11-14, 2014
39%45%0%15%+/-2.71,328
AVERAGES 44.83% 42.5% 1.83% 5.83% +/-2.67 994.17
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)Keen Umbehr(L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
June 19-23, 2014
41%47%5%7%+/-3.11,068
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
July 23, 2014
40%48%5%7%+/-2.91,208
Public Policy Polling
August 14-17, 2014
37%39%9%15%+/-3.3903
SurveyUSA/KSN-TV
September 4-7, 2014
40%47%5%7%+/-4.2555
Public Policy Polling
September 11-14, 2014
38%42%7%14%+/-2.71,328
AVERAGES 39.2% 44.6% 6.2% 10% +/-3.24 1,012.4
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas
Poll Sam Brownback/Jeff Coyler (R) Paul Davis/Jill Docking (D)Third PartyUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA Poll
(October 23-24, 2013)
39%43%12%6%+/-4.4511
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

A KWCH poll commissioned in October 2013, a little more than a year before the election, showed Davis beating Brownback by four percentage points.[33] Furthermore, the poll found a third of Republicans defecting to Davis, who holds a 58%-28% advantage with moderates.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Sam
Brownback (R)
Paul
Davis (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 18-20, 2014 693 ± 3.7% 40% 42% - 18%
SurveyUSA October 23–24, 2013 511 ± 4.4% 39% 43% 12% 6%

Key deadlines

Deadline Event
June 2 Filing Deadline (Party Candidates)
August 4 Filing Deadline (Independents)
August 5 Primary Election
November 4 General Election
December 1 Deadline for State Board of Canvassers to meet
January 12, 2015 Inauguration day for state executive officials in general election

Recent news

This section displays the most recent stories in a Google news search for the term "Kansas + Governor + Brownback + Election"

All stories may not be relevant to this page due to the nature of the search engine.

Kansas Gubernatorial election, 2014 News Feed

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See also

External links

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References

  1. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  2. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  3. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  4. The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," September 15, 2014
  5. Governing, "2014 Governors Races," September 10, 2014
  6. University of Virginia Center for Politics, "2014 Governor," accessed July 30, 2014
  7. Governing, "2014 Governors Races: A Look at the Too-Close-to-Call Contests," March 6, 2014
  8. FiveThirtyEight, "Governors’ Races Are Close, But There’s More Upside For Democrats," July 17, 2014
  9. The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," September 15, 2014
  10. Governing, "2014 Governors Races," September 10, 2014
  11. Lawrence Journal-World, "Brownback running for re-election," June 21, 2013
  12. Lawrence Journal-World, "Brownback running for re-election," June 21, 2013
  13. The Topeka Capital-Journal, "Davis launches Democratic campaign for Kansas governor," September 17, 2013
  14. Wichita Eagle, "Paul Davis forms committee for governor's race," August 8, 2013
  15. Kentucky.com, "Davis teams with Docking in Kansas governor's race," October 22, 2013
  16. Keen A. Umbehr for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed October 8, 2013
  17. Kansas First News, Alma lawyer seeks Libertarian nod for governor, August 29, 2013
  18. The Wichita Eagle, "Physician campaigning as Libertarian dad’s running mate in Kansas governor’s race," May 22, 2014
  19. Jennifer Winn for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed February 18, 2014
  20. Kansas Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Candidates List," accessed June 18, 2014
  21. Tresa McAlhane for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  22. Grant Nelson for Lieutenant Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  23. The Wichita Eagle, "Physician campaigning as Libertarian dad’s running mate in Kansas governor’s race," May 22, 2014
  24. Keen For Kansas, "Home," accessed October 6, 2013
  25. The Washington Post, "The Fix's top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014," November 15, 2013
  26. Kansas City Star, "Surveys find a hint of election vulnerability in Gov. Sam Brownback," October 29, 2013
  27. The New York Times, "Kansas Democrats Turn to Data in Governor's Race," July 30, 2014
  28. The Washington Post, "More than 100 Republicans endorse Democrat against Kansas Gov. Brownback (R)," July 15, 2014
  29. The Wichita Eagle, "Polls on the Kansas governor's race vary widely," July 26, 2014
  30. University of Virginia Center for Politics, "2014 Governor," accessed July 30, 2014
  31. Governing, "2014 Governors Races: A Look at the Too-Close-to-Call Contests," March 6, 2014
  32. FiveThirtyEight, "Governors’ Races Are Close, But There’s More Upside For Democrats," July 17, 2014
  33. KWCH "FactFinder 12 Survey: Gov. Brownback in danger of being unseated," October 25, 2013