Kentucky's 4th Congressional District elections, 2012

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Kentucky's 4th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
May 22, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Thomas Massie Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Geoff Davis Republican Party
Geoff Davis.jpg

Kentucky U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Kentucky.png
The 4th Congressional District of Kentucky held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
This is the 4th Congressional District prior to the 2010 redistricting.

Thomas Massie was elected on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
February 7, 2012
May 22, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Kentucky has a closed primary system, meaning the selection of a party's candidates in a primary election is limited to registered members of that party.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by April 23. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9.[2]

See also: Kentucky elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent is Geoff Davis (R), who was first elected in 2004. Davis announced he will retire, rather than seek re-election in 2012.[3]

This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. Kentucky's 4th Congressional District is located in northern Kentucky. It is a long district that follows the Ohio River. Spencer, Shelby, Oldham, Henry, Trimble, Carroll, Gallatin, Owen, Grant, Harrison, Pendleton, Campbell, Boone, Bracken, Mason, Lewis and Greenup counties are included in the district.[4]

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Bill Adkins
Republican Party Thomas Massie Green check mark transparent.png
Independent David Lewis


May 22, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Independent Independent Party

Election results

U.S. House, Kentucky District 4 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngThomas Massie 62.1% 186,036
     Democratic Bill Adkins 35% 104,734
     Independent David Lewis 2.9% 8,674
Total Votes 299,444
Source: Kentucky Board of Elections "2012 General Election Official Vote Totals"
U.S. House, Kentucky District 4 Democratic Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBill Adkins 68.6% 17,209
Greg Frank 31.4% 7,869
Total Votes 25,078

Republican Primary

U.S. House, Kentucky District 4 Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngThomas Massie 44.8% 19,689
Alecia Webb-Edgington 28.6% 12,557
Gary Moore 14.8% 6,521
Brian Oerther 0.6% 257
Tom Wurtz 1.4% 598
Marc Carey 1.8% 783
Walter Christian Schumm 8% 3,514
Total Votes 43,919

Race background

Republican candidate Alecia Webb-Edgington was endorsed by The Kentucky Professional Firefighters Association in the 4th Congressional District elections.[10]

Democratic candidate Bill Adkins was endorsed by Northern Kentucky AFL-CIO Central Labor Council in the Democratic primary.[11]

Republican candidate Thomas Massie received the endorsement of the Louisville Tea Party in his race for the 4th Congressional District in 2012.[12] He has also picked up endorsements from Tea Party Gubernatorial candidate Phil Moffett,[13] Campbell County Commissioner Brian Painter,[14] Boone County PVA Cindy Arlinghaus,[15] and Alexandria Councilwoman Barb Weber.[16]

On April 20, 2012, Presidential candidate Ron Paul endorsed Massie.[17] May 1, 2012 the Club for Growth endorsed Massie in the 4th District race.[18]

Republican Gary Moore was endorsed by The Northern Kentucky AFL-CIO Central Labor Council in the Republican primary.[19]

Geoff Davis Resigns: Special Election

See also: Kentucky's 4th Congressional District special election, 2012

U.S. Representative Geoff Davis announced his resignation on July 31. Kentucky held special election to fill Davis' seat, which he initially planned to leave at the end of this term.[20][21][22]

Davis said a health issue came up in his family, and he chose to resign early in order to focus on his family.[22] He did not specify the health problem.[20]

As required by the U.S. Constitution, Kentucky scheduled a special election to fill the remainder of Davis' term, which ends in January 2013.[20] The election was set for the same time as the general election on November 6.[23] Thomas Massie (R) and Bill Adkins (D) are already set to vie for the next full term in the general election.[20]

Republican nominee Thomas Massie received the endorsement of the The Fourth District GOP Committee on August 1, 2012 after holding a conference call on the subject. Fourth District GOP Chair Kevin Sell said Davis called in Wednesday night urging support for Massie. Sell said Davis told the Republicans in the conference call he would consider it “a disloyal and damaging act by anyone who rises and nominates any person other than Thomas Massie.”[24]

Both general election candidates, Thomas Massie (R) and Bill Adkins (D), received their party's nomination for the special election.[25]

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in Kentucky

In redistricting, the 4th District was made more favorable to Republicans.[26]

According to some political analysts[26], this could be the most solidly Republican district in the state as a result of the new map.[26] It picks up Shelby and part of Spencer County, as well as the Republican-leaning precincts in eastern Jefferson County while shedding Democratic counties of Fleming, Nicholas, Bath, Elliott Carter and parts of Boyd and Harrison.[26]

Registration statistics

As of October 24, 2012, District 4 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the Kentucky State Board of Elections:

Kentucky Congressional District 4[27]
Congressional District District Total Democrats Republicans Other & Unaffiliated Advantage Party Advantage Change in Advantage from 2010
District 4 511,925 241,667 219,512 50,746 Democratic 10.09% -18.03%
"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Kentucky's 4th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[28]

  • 2012: 34D / 66R
  • 2010: 35D / 65R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Kentucky's 4th Congressional District has a PVI of R+15, which is the 46th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 62-38 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 66-34 percent over John Kerry (D).[29]

Campaign donors

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are Adkin's reports.

Bill Adkins[30] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[31]3/31/2012$0.00$7,280.00$(6,163.83)$1,116.17
Pre-Primary[32]May 11, 2012$1,116.17$11,726.00$(8,796.15)$4,046.02
July Quarterly[33]7/1/2012$4,046.02$21,783.81$(13,846.05)$11,983.78
October Quarterly[34]October 15, 2012$11,983.78$40,959.54$(31,683.28)$21,260.04
Pre-General[35]October 23, 2012$21,260.04$14,705.00$(8,867.85)$27,097.19
Running totals
$96,454.35$(69,357.16)

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are Massie's reports.

Thomas Massie[36] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[37]3/31/2012$0.00$232,529.58$(75,441.54)$157,088.04
Pre-Primary[38]May 8, 2012$157,088.08$75,211.89$(95,815.28)$136,484.65
July Quarterly[39]7/13/2012$136,484.65$276,060.1$(316,201.89)$96,342.86
October Quarterly[40]October 15, 2012$96,342.86$253,818.32$(154,853.33)$195,307.85
Pre-General[41]October 25, 2012$195,307.85$111,297.2$(31,031.86)$275,573.19
Running totals
$948,917.09$(673,343.9)

District history

Candidate ballot accecss
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2010

On November 2, 2010, Geoff Davis won re-election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated John Waltz (D) in the general election.[42]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 4 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGeoff Davis Incumbent 69.5% 151,813
     Democratic John Waltz 30.5% 66,694
Total Votes 218,507

See also

External links

References

  1. ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
  2. Kentucky State Board of Elections, "Voter Information Guide," accessed June 29, 2012
  3. Roll Call, "Rep. Geoff Davis Announces Retirement" accessed December 18, 2011
  4. Kentucky Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed July 24, 2012
  5. 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 Kentucky State Board of Elections "Candidate Filings" accessed January 23, 2012
  6. WLKY "Election Results" accessed May 22, 2012
  7. nky.com "It’s official: Webb-Edgington to run for Congress" accessed December 18, 2011
  8. WLKY "Election Results" accessed May 22, 2012
  9. Kentucky Secretary of State Candidate List accessed September 5, 2012
  10. Cincinnati.com, "Congressional candidates pick up endorsements" accessed April 13, 2012
  11. NYK.com, "Political Notes:The Northern Kentucky AFL-CIO Central Labor Council announces endorsements" accessed March 15, 2012
  12. Cincinnati.com, "Congressional candidates pick up endorsements" accessed April 13, 2012
  13. Thomas Massie for Congress, "Thomas Massie Endorsed By Phil Moffett" accessed April 13, 2012
  14. Thomas Massie for Congress, "Thomas Massie Endorsed by Campbell County Commissioner Brian Painter" accessed April 13, 2012
  15. Thomas Massie for Congress, "Thomas Massie Endorsed By Boone County PVA Cindy Arlinghaus" accessed April 13, 2012
  16. Thomas Massie for Congress, "Thomas Massie Endorsed By Alexandria Councilwoman Barb Weber" accessed April 13, 2012
  17. Thomas Massie for Congress, "Ron Paul Endorses Thomas Massie" accessed May 1, 2012
  18. Roll Call, "Club for Growth Announces Three Congressional Endorsements" accessed May 1, 2012
  19. NYK.com, "Political Notes:The Northern Kentucky AFL-CIO Central Labor Council announces endorsements" accessed March 15, 2012
  20. 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 Courier Journal, "Geoff Davis resigns from Congress, cites family health issue," July 31, 2012
  21. Washington Post, "Republican Rep. Geoff Davis of Kentucky resigns, cites a family health issue," July 31, 2012
  22. 22.0 22.1 Politico, "Rep. Geoff Davis resigns from Congress," July 31, 2012
  23. Roll Call, "Breaking: Geoff Davis Resigns From Congress," July 31, 2012
  24. Kentucky Politics, "Fourth District GOP endorses Massie for special election" accessed August 2, 2012
  25. nky.com, "Adkins and Massie receive special election nominations," September 10, 2012
  26. 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 Channel 2 Pure Politics, "Analysis: New congressional map only slightly moves the political needle in the 6 districts" accessed February 29, 2012
  27. Kentucky State Board of Elections, "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," June 11, 2012
  28. , "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Kentucky," September 2012
  29. Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
  30. Federal Elections Commission, "Bill Adkins Summary Report," accessed 9/27/2012
  31. Federal Elections Commission, "April Quarterly," accessed 9/27/2012
  32. Federal Elections Commission, "Pre-Primary," accessed November 1, 2012
  33. Federal Elections Commission, "July Quarterly," accessed 9/27/2012
  34. Federal Election Commission, "October Quarterly," accessed November 1, 2012
  35. Federal Election Commission, "Pre-General," accessed November 1, 2012
  36. Federal Elections Commission, "Thomas Massie Summary Report," accessed 9/27/2012
  37. Federal Elections Commission, "April Quarterly," accessed 9/27/2012
  38. Federal Elections Commission, "Pre-Primary," accessed November 1, 2012
  39. Federal Elections Commission, "July Quarterly," accessed 9/27/2012
  40. Federal Elections Commission, "October Quarterly," accessed November 1, 2012
  41. Federal Elections Commission, "Pre-General," accessed November 1, 2012
  42. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013 accessed November 12, 2011