Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive Connecticut elections in 2014

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search

July 16, 2014

Seal of Connecticut.png
2014 Connecticut Legislative Lowdown

Table of Contents
Majority control
Margin of victory
Competitiveness

Other 2014 Election coverage
Ballot measuresState executive officialsSchool boards
State legislaturesU.S. HouseU.S. Senate

By Ballotpedia's State legislative team

Connecticut uses a unique system of "challenge primaries," leading to fewer primaries overall than many other states. Across both chambers there are only 11 contest primaries: four in the senate and seven in the house. In the challenge primary system, state and district parties hold conventions two months before the scheduled primary date. Each convention selects a party-endorsed candidate to run in the election. If another candidate receives more than 15 percent of the vote at the convention, that candidate faces the party-nominated candidate in the primary election. If no other candidate reaches the 15 percent threshold, the party-endorsed candidate is considered nominated and a primary election for that office and political party is not held.[1]

June 10 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for Connecticut State Senate and Connecticut House of Representatives. Elections in 20 Senate districts and 120 House districts will consist of a primary election on August 12, 2014, and a general election on November 4, 2014.

See also: 2014's state legislative elections, Connecticut State Senate elections and Connecticut House of Representatives elections

Majority control

Heading into the November 4 election, the Democratic Party holds a majority in both state legislative chambers. Connecticut's office of Governor is held by Dan Malloy (D), making the state one of 13 with a Democratic state government trifecta.

The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate is eight seats, or 22.2 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are five districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.[2]

Connecticut State Senate
Party As of November 3, 2014 After November 4, 2014
     Democratic Party 22 21
     Republican Party 14 15
Total 36 36

The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the House is 43 seats, or 28.5 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are 20 districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.[3]

Connecticut House of Representatives
Party As of November 3, 2014 After November 4, 2014
     Democratic Party 97 87
     Republican Party 54 64
Total 151 151
2015
2013
2014 badge.jpg
2014 State Legislative Elections

States
AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Other 2014 Election coverage
Ballot access for major and minor party candidatesStatewide elections, 2014State Senate electionsState House electionsState executive official elections, 20142014 ballot measures

Competitiveness

Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:

  • Is the incumbent running for re-election?
  • If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
  • Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?

In Connecticut's 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:[4]

  • There are 27 open seats (14.4%) in the two chambers.
  • A total of four incumbents (2.5%) face a primary challenger.
  • 134 districts (71.7%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.

The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances.

Comparing Connecticut Competitiveness over the Years
Year  % Incs retiring  % incs rank  % Incs facing primary  % Incs primary rank  % seats with 2 MPC  % seats with 2 MPC rank Overall Index Overall Index Rank
2010 10.2% 33 2.4% 44 77.5% 14 30.0 36
2012 13.4% 34 3.7% 44 81.1% 9 32.7 26
2014 14.4% Pending 2.5% Pending 71.7% Pending 29.5 Pending

Senate

The following table details competitiveness in the Connecticut State Senate.

Connecticut Senate Competitiveness
 % Incs retiring  % Incs facing primary  % seats with 2 MPC Overall Index
16.7% 8.3% 72.2% 32.4

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 10 of the 36 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. Five Democrats and five Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 26 of the 36 districts up for election. Four of those seats held competitive elections in 2012 with a margin of victory ranging from 0 to 5 percent. Two other elections were mildly competitive, with a margin of victory of 5 to 10 percent. Three districts that held competitive elections in 2012 feature only one major party in 2014. Those districts are:

Competitive

  • District 7: Incumbent John A. Kissell (R) will face John Foxx (D) in the general election. Kissell won by a margin of victory of 1 percent in 2012.
  • District 13: Incumbent Dante Bartolomeo (D) will face Len Suzio (R) in the general election. Bartolomeo won by a margin of victory of 0.7 percent in 2012.
  • District 19: Incumbent Catherine A. Osten (D) will face Steven Everett (R) in the general election. Osten won by a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2012.
  • District 33: Incumbent Art Linares (R) will face Emily Bjornberg (D) in the general election. Linares won by a margin of victory of 5 percent in 2012.

Mildly Competitive

Previously Competitive, Now Unopposed

  • District 16: Incumbent Joe Markley (R) is unopposed in both the Republican primary and the general election. Markley won by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012.
  • District 24: Incumbent Michael A. McLachlan (R) is unopposed in both the Republican primary and the general election. McLachlan won by a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2012.
  • District 31: Henri Martin (R) is unopposed in both the Republican primary and the general election for the seat being vacated by Jason Welch (R). Welch won by a margin of victory of 2 percent in 2012.

Primary challenges

A total of three incumbents will face primary competition on August 12. Six incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 27 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The state senators facing primary competition are:

Retiring incumbents

Six incumbent senators, four Democrats and two Republicans, is not running for re-election, while 30 (83.3%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbent are:

Name Party Current Office
Gary LeBeau Electiondot.png Democratic Senate District 3
Edward Meyer Electiondot.png Democratic Senate District 12
Andrea Stillman Electiondot.png Democratic Senate District 20
John McKinney Ends.png Republican Senate District 28
Donald Williams, Jr. Electiondot.png Democratic Senate District 29
Jason Welch Ends.png Republican Senate District 31

House

The following table details competitiveness in the Connecticut House of Representatives.

Connecticut House Competitiveness
 % Incs retiring  % Incs facing primary  % seats with 2 MPC Overall Index
13.9% 0.7% 71.5% 28.7

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 43 of the 151 seats up for election, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 27 Democrats and 16 Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 108 of the 151 districts up for election. Nine of those seats held competitive elections in 2012 with a margin of victory ranging from 0 to 5 percent. Eleven other elections were mildly competitive, with a margin of victory of 5 to 10 percent. Those districts are:

Competitive

  • District 2: Incumbent Dan Carter (R) will face Candace Fay (D) in the general election. Carter won by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012.
  • District 21: Incumbent Mike Demicco (D) will face Patty Stoddard (R) in the general election. Demicco won by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012.
  • District 42: Incumbent Timothy Russell Bowles (D) will face Mike France (R) in the general election. Bowles won by a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2012.
  • District 61: Incumbent Tami Zawistowski (R) Joe Doering (D) in the general election. Former incumbent Elaine O'Brien (D) won by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012. Zawistowski won a 2014 special election by a margin of victory of 16 percent.
  • District 89: Incumbent Lezlye Zupkus (R) will face Vickie Orsini Nardello (D) in the general election. Zupkus won as a Democrat by a margin of victory of 2 percent in 2012.
  • District 105: Incumbent Theresa W. Conroy (D) will face Len Green, Jr. (R) in the general election. Conroy won by a margin of victory of 0.8 percent in 2012.
  • District 106: Incumbent Mitch Bolinsky (R) will face Matt Cole (D) in the general election. Bolinsky won by a margin of victory of 0.4 percent in 2012.
  • District 119: Incumbent James Maroney (D) will face Pam Staneski (R) in the general election. Maroney won by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012.
  • District 144: Incumbent Michael L. Molgano (R) will face Caroline Simmons (D) in the general election. Molgano won by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012.

Mildly competitive

  • District 13: Incumbent Joe Diminico (D) will face Walt Bochnik (R) in the general election. Diminico won by a margin of victory of 9 percent in 2012.
  • District 16: Incumbent John Hampton (D) will face Cheryl B. Cook (R) in the general election. Hampton won by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.
  • District 32: Incumbent Christie Carpino (R) will face the winner of the Democratic primary in the general election. Carpino won by a margin of victory of 8 percent in 2012.
  • District 34: Incumbent Melissa Ziobron (R) will face Mimi Perrotti (D) in the general election. Ziobron won by a margin of victory of 10 percent in 2012.
  • District 35: Incumbent Tom Vicino (D) will face Jesse MacLachlan (R) in the general election. Vicino won by a margin of victory of 10 percent in 2012.
  • District 40: Incumbent Edward Moukawsher (D) will face John F. Scott (R) in the general election. Moukawsher won by a margin of victory of 10 percent in 2012.
  • District 41: Incumbent Elissa T. Wright (D) will face Aundre Bumgardner (R) in the general election. Wright won by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.
  • District 57: Incumbent Christopher Davis (R) will face Noele Kidney (D) in the general election. Davis won by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.
  • District 81: Incumbent David Zoni (D) will face Al Natelli (R) in the general election. Zoni won by a margin of victory of 7 percent in 2012.
  • District 123: Incumbent David J. Rutigliano (R) will face Douglas Sutherland (D) in the general election. Rutigliano won by a margin of victory of 8 percent in 2012.
  • District 132: Incumbent Brenda L. Kupchick (R) will face Kevin Coyner (D) in the general election. Kupchick won by a margin of victory of 9 percent in 2012.

Primary challenges

One incumbent will face primary competition on August 12. Twenty-one incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 129 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. The state representative facing primary competition is:

Retiring incumbents

Twenty-one incumbent representatives, twelve Democrats and nine Republicans, is not running for re-election, while 130 (86.1%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbent are:

Name Party Current Office
Timothy Larson Electiondot.png Democratic House District 11
Geoff Luxenberg Electiondot.png Democratic House District 12
Marilyn Giuliano Ends.png Republican House District 23
Sandy Nafis Electiondot.png Democratic House District 27
Elizabeth Ritter Electiondot.png Democratic House District 38
Mae Flexer Electiondot.png Democratic House District 44
Steve Mikutel Electiondot.png Democratic House District 45
Penny Bacchiochi Ends.png Republican House District 52
Pamela Sawyer Ends.png Republican House District 55
Sean Williams Ends.png Republican House District 68
Patricia Widlitz Electiondot.png Democratic House District 98
DebraLee Hovey Ends.png Republican House District 112
Lawrence Miller Ends.png Republican House District 122
Charles Clemons Electiondot.png Democratic House District 124
Christina M. Ayala Electiondot.png Democratic House District 128
Kim Fawcett Electiondot.png Democratic House District 133
Tony Hwang Ends.png Republican House District 134
Chris Perone Electiondot.png Democratic House District 137
Lawrence Cafero Ends.png Republican House District 142
Gerald Fox Electiondot.png Democratic House District 146
Stephen G. Walko Ends.png Republican House District 150

See also

External links

References