New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

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U.S. House, New Hampshire District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent 48.1% 116,769
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngFrank Guinta 51.7% 125,508
     N/A Scatter 0.2% 459
Total Votes 242,736
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State


2016
2012

CongressLogo.png

New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
September 9, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Frank Guinta Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party
Carol Shea Porter.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss Up[1]

FairVote's Monopoly Politics: Toss Up[2]
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up[3]


New Hampshire U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2

2014 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of New Hampshire.png
The 1st Congressional District of New Hampshire held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Former Rep. Frank Guinta (R) defeated incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in the general election.
BattlegroundRace.jpg

In the third rematch between Guinta and Shea-Porter, Guinta narrowly defeated his opponent, winning back the seat by 3.5 percent of the vote. The two rivals had been battling for the seat since the 2010 election, when Shea-Porter, who had held the seat since 2007, lost her re-election bid to Guinta. In 2012, Shea-Porter defeated Guinta and regained her seat by a 3.8 percent margin of victory, only to lose the seat again in 2014. Once again, the swing district witnessed a defeated incumbent and a shift in partisan control.

Interestingly, both of Guinta's victories occurred during midterm elections, in which voter turnout tends to be lower. Shea-Porter won the district in both 2008 and 2012, when President Barack Obama (D) was up for election. Obama won the district in both years.

Due to the district's frequent changing of hands, Ballotpedia named New Hampshire's 1st as a U.S. House battleground district in 2014. Political analysts such as those from The Cook Political Report, FairVote's Monopoly Politics and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated the race as a toss-up.[4][5][6] General election polls did not reveal a clear winner.

Shea-Porter's campaign held the advantage for campaign contributions throughout the election. During the 2014 election cycle, Shea-Porter raised a total of $1,491,760.97, while Guinta raised only $1,007,750.91.[7]

This small advantage, though, was dwarfed by the amount of outside spending that poured in to help each of the candidates. In all, outside groups spent $10,221,895 on the election, putting New Hampshire's 1st District at fifth on the list of highest outside spending for a U.S. House race in 2014.[8] The highest donors were the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) at $3,916,738 and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) at $2,349,642.[9]

In such a close race, Guinta's edge may have been strengthened by a national trend in favor of Republicans during the 2014 elections. Republicans across the nation experienced what some called a "GOP wave," increasing their majority in the U.S. House and gaining the majority in the Senate.[10] Many believed that this trend arose due to midterm dissatisfaction and overall low approval ratings of President Barack Obama (D).[11]

Guinta attributed his win to a strong grassroots campaign, touring the district to appear at various events and meeting as many constituents as possible. He explained, "Think about the importance of going into a community and meeting with people over and over and over again."[12]


Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
June 13, 2014
September 9, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: New Hampshire is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary, but in order to do so, they have to choose a party before voting. This changes their status from unaffiliated to affiliated with that party, unless they fill out a card to return to undeclared status.[13]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters could register by either August 30, 2014, if registering with a town clerk, or on election day. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 25, 2014 (10 days before election).[14]

See also: New Hampshire elections, 2014

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Carol Shea-Porter (D), who was first elected in 2006. She lost her re-election bid in 2010 to Frank Guinta (R), but won the seat back in 2012.

New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state.[15]

Candidates

General election candidates


September 9, 2014, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Failed to file


Election results

General election

U.S. House, New Hampshire District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent 48.1% 116,769
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngFrank Guinta 51.7% 125,508
     N/A Scatter 0.2% 459
Total Votes 242,736
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

Primary election

U.S. House, New Hampshire District 1 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngFrank Guinta 49.1% 29,246
Dan Innis 40.9% 24,342
Brendan Kelly 8.4% 4,999
Everett Jabour 1.7% 996
Total Votes 59,583
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State - Official Election Results

Race background

Incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D) was a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline Program. The program was designed to help protect vulnerable Democratic incumbents during the 2014 election cycle.[20]

Primary election background

Throughout the primary election campaign, Guinta had an advantage over Republican primary challenger Dan Innis in polls and fundraising. Guinta also had the advantage of name recognition, as he was the district's representative from 2011 to 2013. Nonetheless, Innis proved to be a competitive opponent. He earned a high-profile endorsement from the Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund and gained media attention for being one of three openly gay Republicans who ran for Congress in 2014.[21] Guinta defeated Innis and two other Republican candidates in the Republican primary on September 9, 2014.[22]

Endorsements

Carol Shea-Porter

Carol Shea-Porter received the following endorsements:

Frank Guinta

Frank Guinta received the following endorsements:

Dan Innis

Dan Innis received the following endorsements:

Issues

See also: Energy and the 2014 election: the ballots and beyond

Campaign themes

Carol Shea-Porter

Carol Shea-Porter listed the following issues on her campaign website:[48]

  • Veterans: Our veterans have served our country, and we must show our gratitude by honoring our commitments to them. It is not enough to merely talk about supporting our troops. We must show the brave men and women who have served our nation that we appreciate their service by honoring our commitments to them. We must also show that appreciation by ensuring that they have access to the quality health care, education, and other benefits that we promised to them.
  • Jobs and the Economy: Hard work should pay off. I worked my way through UNH at minimum wage jobs and on a factory floor. I’m fighting to build an economy where hard work leads to good jobs, fair pay, and a shot at the American dream.
  • Medicare and Social Security: Beware, anyone who is old or disabled or might ever get old or disabled. If Frank Guinta gets back to Congress, he will once again vote to weaken Medicare and reduce benefits.
  • Health Care: I voted for the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which has brought coverage to millions of Americans and raised the number of insured to the highest on record. More than 40,000 people in New Hampshire gained coverage this year through the state Marketplace, and 50,000 more will get healthcare when Medicaid expands this July.
  • Education: It is time to talk to our families, our communities, and our legislators about the value and necessity of education. It is time to defend investments in education because they are investments in our children's future, our business' future, and our nation's future. It is time to save our schools.
  • Energy and Environment: There are still too many climate change deniers in Congress, and this is preventing the United States from moving forward, even as time is running out to slow down climate change. If Americans want to fix this climate change problem, they will first need to fix Congress in November.
  • Campaign Finance Reform: The Citizens United decision is outrageous, and I hope that the Court does review and overturn its decision. But unless and until the United States Supreme Court acts, there are steps citizens and politicians can take.

[49]

—Carol Shea-Porter, Campaign website (archive)

Frank Guinta

Frank Guinta listed the following issues, among others, on his campaign website:[50]

  • Energy: "I strongly support an 'all of the above' approach for increasing domestic energy production, which would lower gas prices, reduce our nation’s dependence on hostile foreign countries and create American middle-class jobs. That means everything from safe development of oil (offshore and onshore), natural gas, clean coal and other fossil fuels to alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, hydropower, nuclear, geothermal, and biomass."
  • Education: "We must have an education system that prepares our children for the jobs of the future. To do that, we have to reduce the federal government’s role in education and return power to states, local officials, educators and most importantly, to parents."
  • Protecting Seniors: "I will continue working hard to ensure there will be no changes to Medicare or Social Security for those in or near retirement. But the nonpartisan trustees of Medicare say it is going to be broke in the next 10 years. We must make structural changes so future generations can receive the same safety net that currently protects their grandparents. Our seniors are part of the “Greatest Generation,” and I'm committed to preserving what they've earned."
  • Tax Code: "It’s time for an overhaul. I've fought for --and will continue fighting for-- a simpler, fairer and more competitive tax system. By lowering and consolidating rates (both individual and corporate), closing special-interest loopholes and broadening the base, we can get our economy moving in the right direction."
  • Veterans: "New Hampshire has one of the nation's highest per capita military veterans population. Ensuring they receive the benefits they have earned is a top priority. I have fought for a full service VA medical facility. I will continue that fight until we finally make sure Granite Staters who wore the uniform receive the highest medical care right here in New Hampshire."

[49]

—Frank Guinta, Campaign website (archive)

Polls

General election polls

Frank Guinta vs. Carol Shea-Porter
Poll Frank Guinta Carol Shea-PorterOtherDon’t know/undecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
University of New Hampshire Survey Center (October 22-26, 2014)
40%44%1%15%+/-6.1261
New England College (October 24, 2014)
49%42.9%4.1%4%+/-4.16556
New England College (October 16, 2014)
47%46%0%0%+/-4.6461
New England College (October 9, 2014)
46.3%43.5%5.7%4.6%+/-4.23536
New England College (October 3, 2014)
44.2%46.7%5.1%4.0%+/-3.92626
New England College (September 19-20, 2014)
45.2%45.2%6.0%3.6%+/-3.66715
Normington, Petts and Associates (September 3-7, 2014)
43%45%0%0%+/-3.5800
New England College (September 10-11, 2014)
41.6%46.0%6.5%5.9%+/-3.98630
University of New Hampshire Survey Center (June 19-July 1, 2014)
46%43%2%10%+/-6.0263
University of New Hampshire Survey Center (April 1-9, 2014)
35%44%0%21%+/-6.1199
AVERAGES 43.73% 44.63% 3.04% 6.81% +/-4.63 504.7
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Note: A response of "0%" may indicate that a given answer choice did not appear as an option for that poll.


Dan Innis vs. Carol Shea-Porter
Poll Dan Innis Carol Shea-PorterOtherDon’t know/undecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
University of New Hampshire Survey Center (June 19-July 1, 2014)
38%45%1%16%+/-6.0263
University of New Hampshire Survey Center (April 1-9, 2014)
29%45%0%25%+/-6.1199
AVERAGES 33.5% 45% 0.5% 20.5% +/-6.05 231
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign contributions

Carol Shea-Porter

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Shea-Porter's reports.[51]

Frank Guinta

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Guinta's reports.[61]

**As of the 2013 Year-End Report, Guinta's committee owed $289,575.00 in outstanding loans to Frank Guinta.


Dan Innis

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Innis' reports.[71]

Dan Innis (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[72]January 31, 2014$0.00$106,394.93$(75,353.39)$31,041.54
April Quarterly[73]April 15, 2014$31,041.54$61,442.00$(35,813.73)$56,669.81
Running totals
$167,836.93$(111,167.12)

Media

Carol Shea-Porter

Carol Shea-Porter released her first campaign ad of the election season in September 2014.[74]


Shea-Porter 2014 campaign ad

Dan Innis


Innis campaign video announcing his candidacy[75]

Frank Guinta

  • Frank Guinta released a campaign ad in September 2013, discussing how he would work with both Republicans and Democrats in Congress toward a common goal.[76]
  • The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released an ad attacking Guinta for a near-scandal from 2010.[77] Guinta had loaned $245,000 to his campaign, and in the same financial disclosure forms, he had included an account containing between $250,000 and $500,000 that had not appeared on any previous forms. Guinta referred to the situation as an "inadvertent oversight."[78]

Frank Guinta campaign ad

DCCC ad attacking Guinta for "forgotten" bank account

District history

Candidate ballot access
Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg

Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington D.C.

2012

On November 6, 2012, Carol Shea-Porter (D) won election to the United States House. She defeated Frank Guinta (R) and Brendan Kelly (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, New Hampshire District 1 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Frank Guinta Incumbent 46% 158,659
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngCarol Shea-Porter 49.8% 171,650
     Libertarian Brandan Kelly 4.2% 14,521
Total Votes 344,830
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Frank Guinta won election to the United States House. He defeated Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Philip Hodson (L) in the general election.[79]

U.S. House, New Hampshire District 1 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngFrank C. Guinta 54% 121,655
     Democratic Carol Shea-Porter incumbent 42.4% 95,503
     Libertarian Philip Hodson 3.5% 7,966
Total Votes 225,124

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for August 8, 2014," accessed August 25, 2014
  2. FairVote's Monopoly Politics, "2014 House Projections," accessed August 25, 2014
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed August 25, 2014
  4. Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for JULY 26, 2014," accessed July 31, 2014
  5. FairVote's Monopoly Politics, "2014 House Projections," accessed November 19, 2014
  6. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed July 31, 2014
  7. OpenSecrets, "New Hampshire District 01 Race, Summary Data," accessed November 25, 2014
  8. OpenSecrets, "2014 Outside Spending, by Race," accessed November 25, 2014
  9. OpenSecrets, "New Hampshire District 01 Race, Outside Spending," accessed November 25, 2014
  10. The Washington Post, "Yes, this was a GOP wave election," accessed November 20, 2014
  11. New York Daily News, "Republicans ride wave of anger against Obama to recapture Senate," accessed November 20, 2014
  12. Fosters, "Guinta only top GOP victor in N.H.," accessed November 25, 2014
  13. New Hampshire Secretary of State Website, "How to Register to Vote in New Hampshire," accessed January 3, 2014
  14. New Hampshire Secretary of State Website, "How to Register to Vote in New Hampshire," accessed January 3, 2014
  15. New Hampshire Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  16. 16.0 16.1 16.2 New Hampshire Secretary of State, "2014 Filing Period," accessed June 23, 2014
  17. Portsmouth Patch, "Frank Guinta Announces Congressional Run on YouTube," accessed March 20, 2014
  18. Seacoast Online, "UNH dean may make bid for Congress," accessed July 25, 2013
  19. WMUR.com, "State Rep. Pam Tucker is considering a run for Congress against Shea-Porter," accessed September 6, 2013
  20. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "DCCC Chairman Steve Israel Announces 2013-2014 Frontline Members," accessed March 5, 2013
  21. Newsmax, "Gay Republicans Competing in Three Congressional Races," accessed May 28, 2014
  22. Associated Press, "New Hampshire - 2014 Primary Results," accessed September 9, 2014
  23. SNAP PAC, "SNAP PAC Endorses Representative Carol Shea-Porter and Lee Rogers," accessed May 27, 2014
  24. EMILY's List, "Carol Shea-Porter," accessed May 27, 2014
  25. Frank Guinta for Congress, "New Hampshire Union Leader Endorses Frank Guinta for Congress," accessed May 27, 2014
  26. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Eagle Tribune endorses Guinta for Congress in NH-01," accessed May 27, 2014
  27. 27.0 27.1 WMUR, "Paul Ryan to visit N.H. for Guinta," accessed May 27, 2014
  28. The Hill, "Scott Brown headlining fundraiser for Guinta in New Hampshire," accessed May 27, 2014
  29. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Guinta Begins March of Endorsements," accessed May 27, 2014
  30. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Guinta Continues March of Endorsements," accessed May 27, 2014
  31. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Granite Staters Flocking to Guinta's Candidacy," accessed May 27, 2014
  32. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Granite Staters Continue to Coalesce Around Team Guinta," accessed May 27, 2014
  33. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Grassroot Support Continues to Grow for Team Guinta," accessed May 27, 2014
  34. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Team Guinta Marches into April," accessed May 27, 2014
  35. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Team Guinta Locks Down More Grassroots Support," accessed May 27, 2014
  36. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Granite Staters Continue to Unite Behind Team Guinta!," accessed May 27, 2014
  37. Frank Guinta for Congress, "April Ends Where March Began," accessed May 27, 2014
  38. Frank Guinta for Congress, "10 Straight Weeks and Counting!," accessed May 27, 2014
  39. Frank Guinta for Congress, "11th Straight Week of Endorsements for Team Guinta!," accessed May 27, 2014
  40. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Milestone Reached for Team Guinta," accessed May 27, 2014
  41. 41.0 41.1 Portsmouth Patch, "Doug and Stella Scamman Endorse Dan Innis," accessed May 27, 2014
  42. The Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund, "Dan Innis," accessed May 27, 2014 (dead link)
  43. The Washington Post, "LGBT group to back two gay Republicans for Congress," accessed May 27, 2014
  44. Portsmouth Patch, "Jim Waddell Endorses Dan Innis," accessed May 27, 2014
  45. Portsmouth Patch, "Senator John Reagan Endorses Dan Innis," accessed May 27, 2014
  46. Portsmouth Patch, "Ruth Griffin Endorses Dan Innis," accessed May 27, 2014
  47. Portsmouth Patch, "Dan Innis Releases List of 21 Endorsements," accessed May 27, 2014
  48. Carol Shea-Porter for US Congress, "Issues," accessed October 2, 2014
  49. 49.0 49.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributed to the original source.
  50. Frank Guinta for Congress, "Issues," accessed March 27, 2014
  51. Federal Election Commission, "Shea-Porter 2014 Summary reports," accessed July 22, 2013
  52. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed July 22, 2013
  53. FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed July 22, 2013
  54. FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 25, 2013
  55. FEC, "Year-End Quarterly," accessed November 25, 2014
  56. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed May 16, 2014
  57. FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2014
  58. FEC, "Pre-Primary," accessed October 23, 2014
  59. FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 23, 2014
  60. FEC, "Pre-General," accessed November 25, 2014
  61. Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta Summary Report," accessed April 30, 2014
  62. Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta April Quarterly," accessed March 20, 2014
  63. Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta July Quarterly," accessed March 20, 2014
  64. Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta October Quarterly," accessed March 20, 2014
  65. Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta Year-End," accessed March 20, 2014
  66. Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
  67. Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta July Quarterly," accessed November 4, 2014
  68. Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta Pre-Primary," accessed November 4, 2014
  69. Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta October Quarterly," accessed November 4, 2014
  70. Federal Election Commission, "Frank Guinta Pre-General," accessed November 4, 2014
  71. Federal Election Commission, "Dan Innis Summary Report," accessed April 30, 2014
  72. Federal Election Commission, "Dan Innis Year-End," accessed March 20, 2014
  73. Federal Election Commission, "Dan Innis April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
  74. YouTube, "Dream," accessed September 12, 2014
  75. YouTube, "Dan Innis Announcement," accessed May 28, 2014
  76. YouTube, "By Working Together We Can Solve Our Problems," accessed October 6, 2014
  77. YouTube, "Bank," accessed October 6, 2014
  78. Politico, "Bradley: Guinta should drop out," accessed October 6, 2014
  79. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013