Ohio's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2012

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Ohio's 2nd Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
March 6, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Brad Wenstrup Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Jean Schmidt Republican Party
Jean Schmidt.jpg

Ohio U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9District 10District 11District 12District 13District 14District 15District 16

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Ohio.png
The 2nd Congressional District of Ohio held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.

Republican Brad Wenstrupwon the election.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
December 7, 2011
March 6, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Ohio has a mostly closed primary system, in which voters must vote in the same party's primary as in the previous election, or register with the other party to switch.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 5. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 7.[2]

See also: Ohio elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent is Jean Schmidt (R), who has served since 2005. Schmidt was defeated by challenger Brad Wenstrup in the GOP primary.

This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. Ohio's 2nd Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes Hamilton, Clermont, Brown, Highland, Adams, Scioto, Pike and Ross counties.[3]

According to the Cook Political Report, the second congressional district was the 57th most Republican district in the country. In Ohio, only the 4th District and 8th District were considered to be more Republican.

This is the 2nd Congressional District prior to the 2010 redistricting.

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party William R. Smith
Republican Party Brad WenstrupGreen check mark transparent.png


March 6, 2012 primary results

Democratic Party Democratic primary

Republican Party Republican primary

Election results

General Election

U.S. House, Ohio District 2 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic William R. Smith 41.4% 137,077
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngBrad Wenstrup 58.6% 194,296
Total Votes 331,373
Source: Ohio Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Democratic Primary

U.S. House, Ohio's 2st Congressional District Democratic Primary Democratic Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngWilliam R. Smith 50.2% 10,175
David Krikorian 49.8% 10,114
Total Votes 20,289

Republican Primary

U.S. House, Ohio's 2nd Congressional District Republican Primary Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBrad Wenstrup 48.7% 42,482
Jean Schmidt Incumbent 42.9% 37,383
Fred Kundrata 3.4% 2,999
Tony Brush 4.9% 4,275
Joe Green 0% 29
Total Votes 87,168

Race background

The Washington Post listed the House of Representatives elections in Ohio in 2012 as one of the 10 states that could determine whether Democrats would retake the House or Republicans would hold their majority in 2013.[7] Ohio tied with Pennsylvania for 9th on the list.[7]

Impact of Redistricting

See also Redistricting in Ohio

Following the 2010 Census, Ohio was forced to eliminate two of its 18 congressional seats. Other than Ohio, only New York lost two seats. Although Ohio still saw positive net growth (only Michigan lost population in the past decade), urban areas in the state saw steep population declines. Of Ohio's five largest cities -- Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo and Akron -- only Columbus showed population growth (10.6% since 2000). Of the five, Cleveland suffered the sharpest decline, losing 17.1% its population.[8]

The 2nd District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[9][10]

 Changes to Ohio's Second Congressional District  

Registration statistics

As of October 29, 2012, District 2 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the Ohio Secretary of State:

Ohio Congressional District 2[11]
Congressional District District Total Democrats Republicans Other & Unaffiliated Advantage Party Advantage Change in Advantage from 2010
District 2 484,181 41,363 106,022 336,796 Republican 156.32% N/A
"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Ohio's 2nd District became less Republican because of redistricting.[12]

  • 2012: 41D / 59R
  • 2010: 37D / 63R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Ohio's 2nd Congressional District has a PVI of R+9, which is the 129th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 55-45 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 60-40 percent over John Kerry (D).[13]

Issues

Media

The following is a selection of audio and video for some of the District 2 candidates. Some were released by candidates, others by local media.

Jean Schmidt


Jean Schmidt, "House floor debate"[14]











Brad Wenstrup


Brad Wenstrup, "Campaign event"[15]











David Krikorian


David Krikorian "2010 Campaign event"[16]

Fred Kundrata, Tony Brush, and Joe Green


Little-Known Candidates Challenge Schmidt For Congress[17]

Campaign contributions

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.

Brad Wenstrup

Brad Wenstrup (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[18]March 31, 2012$107,906.86$111,115.00$(180,673.80)$38,348.06
July Quarterly[19]July 15$38,348.06$217,943.39$(34,485.86)$221,805.59
Running totals
$329,058.39$(215,159.66)

William R. Smith

As of October 4, 2012, Smith did not have any contribution reports on file with the Federal Election Commission

District History

2010

On November 2, 2010, Jean Schmidt (R) won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, defeating Surya Yalamanchili (D) and Libertarian candidate Marc Johnston .[20]

U.S. House, Ohio District 2 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJean Schmidt Incumbent 58.5% 139,027
     Democratic Surya Yalamanchili 34.7% 82,431
     Libertarian Marc Johnston 6.8% 16,259
Total Votes 237,717

2008

On November 4, 2008, Jean Schmidt (R) won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, defeating Victoria Wulsin (D) and Independent candidate David Krikorian .[21]

U.S. House, Ohio District 2 General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJean Schmidt Incumbent 44.8% 148,671
     Democratic Victoria Wulsin 37.5% 124,213
     Independent David Krikorian 17.7% 58,710
Total Votes 331,594

2006

On November 4, 2006, Jean Schmidt (R) won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, defeating Victoria Wulsin (D).[22]

2004

On November 2, 2004, Rob Portman (R) won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, defeating Charles Sander (D).[23]

2002

On November 5, 2002, Rob Portman (R) won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, defeating Charles Sanders (D).[24]

2000

On November 5, 2000, Rob Portman (R) won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, defeating Charles Sanders (D).[25]

1998

On November 3, 1998, Rob Portman (R) won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, defeating Charles Sanders (D).[26]

Targeted incumbents

The Super PAC, Campaign for Primary Accountability, had targeted Rep. Jean Schmidt as an "entrenched" incumbent, and one that needs to be "shaken up." The group pointed to a poll conducted in Schmidt's district that shows her support dropped after respondents learn about her record.[27]

See also

References

  1. Politico, "2012 Election Map, Ohio"
  2. Ohio Secretary of State, "FAQ," accessed June 29, 2012
  3. Ohio Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed August 9, 2012
  4. Cincinnati Enquirer "William R. Smith, the Invisible Candidate" accessed March 9, 2012
  5. National Journal "The mystery nominee in Ohio" accessed March 10, 2012
  6. Washington Post "Upset in Ohio: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) loses primary to Brad Wenstrup" accessed March 10, 2012
  7. 7.0 7.1 Washington Post, "The 10 states that will determine control of the House in 2012" accessed April 25, 2012
  8. Examiner.com, "4 of 5 big Ohio cities, counties lose people, Whites still dominate, Census says," March 10, 2011
  9. Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "Ohio's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
  10. Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
  11. Ohio Secretary of State, "Precinct-By-Precinct Data," March 6, 2012
  12. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Ohio," September 2012
  13. Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
  14. YouTube channel
  15. YouTube channel
  16. YouTube channel
  17. YouTube channel
  18. Federal Election Commission, "Brad Wenstrup April Quarterly," accessed July 13, 2012
  19. Federal Election Commission, "Brad Wenstrup July Quarterly," accessed October 4, 2012
  20. Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010
  21. Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008
  22. Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006
  23. Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004
  24. Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002
  25. Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000
  26. Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1998
  27. cincinnati.com, "Super-PAC targets 'out of step' Schmidt" accessed January 31, 2012