Oklahoma gubernatorial election, 2010

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Breaking news

In the Oklahoma gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, Republican Mary Fallin defeated Democrat Jari Askins . The incumbent, Democratic Governor Brad Henry was term-limited. Fallin's election makes her the first woman to serve as Oklahoma's governor.

In the July 27, 2010 primary elections, Jari Askins, who served as Governor Henry's Lieutenant Governor, narrowly defeated Oklahoma's Attorney General, Drew Edmondson. Mary Fallins had a more comfortable victory over her major opponent, State Senator Randy Brogdon.

November 2, 2010 general election results

All precincts have reported and results are certified.[1]

2010 Oklahoma gubernatorial general election
Party Candidate Vote Percentage
     Democratic Party Jari Askins 39.55%
     Republican Party Approveda Mary Fallin 60.45%
Total Votes 1,034,767

Inauguration and transition

Inaugural date

Governor-elect Mary Fallin took office as Oklahoma's 27th chief executive on January 10, 2011.

Transition team

The Fallin transition was online at Transition Central.

The transition's physical office was at:

Office of Governor-elect Mary Fallin
Oklahoma State Capitol
2300 N. Lincoln Blvd. Suite 104
Oklahoma City, OK 73105
phone: (405) 521-4317
fax: (405) 521-4285

In a November 8, 2010 press conference, Governor-elect Fallin named Devon Energy executive Larry Nichols and outgoing Senate President Glenn Coffee as co-chairs of her transition.[2] Nichols will spearhead getting the private sector involved in the transition and in the Fallin administration, a stated goal of the incoming Governor. Coffee, meanwhile, was in charge of liaison work with Oklahoma's legislature.

Sen. Coffee left office due to term limits but his being named to the transition raised eyebrows, largely due to his own troubles while in office.[3] While serving as Senate President Pro Tempore, Coffee failed to pay nearly $30,000 in federal taxes in 2009 and was called out for lavish spending and pay raises for staff.

Appointments in the Fallin Administration

The picture of what the Fallin Administration would look like shaped up quickly. According the Governor-elect's transition site, the following people were set to join her office:

  • Chief of Staff -- Denise Northrup
  • Policy Director -- Katie Altshuler
  • Chief Counsel -- Judy Copeland
  • Communications Director -- Alex Weintz
  • Special Advisor to the Governor on Economic Development -- Robert Sullivan, Jr.
  • Members of the Governor's Taskforce on Economic Development (partial list)
  • David Rainbolt, Chairman of the Oklahoma State Chamber and BancFirst CEO
  • Former State Representative Gary Sherrer, Board of Director for Rural Enterprises, Inc.
  • Small Business Advocate -- Lieutenant Governor-elect Todd Lamb
  • Secretary of Agriculture -- Jim Reese, former State Executive Director for the Oklahoma Farm Service Agency
  • Secretary of Veterans Affairs -- retired Major General Rita Aragon

In addition to the announced appointments, Secretary of Human Resources and Administration Oscar Jackson was retained in his current office.[4]

July 27, 2010 primary

As expected, Mary Fallin became the Republican nominee. However, Jari Askins engineered an upset to win a narrow victory over Drew Edmondson. The results mean that, whoever wins in November, Oklahoma would have its first-ever female governor.[5] Polling at the moment indicates the race is Fallin's to lose.[6]

2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary[7]
Candidates Percentage
Green check mark.jpg Jari Askins (D) 50.28%
Drew Edmondson (D) 49.72%
Total votes 263, 649


2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary[8]
Candidates Percentage
Randy Brogdon (R) 39.42%
Green check mark.jpg Mary Fallin (R) 54.79%
Robert Hubbard(R) 3.26%
Roger L. Jackson (R) 2.53%
Total votes 249,031

Race ratings

See also: Gubernatorial elections 2010, Race tracking

2010 Race Rankings Oklahoma
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[9] Lean Republican
Congressional Quarterly Politics[10] Leans Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Likely Republican
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[12] Solid GOP
The Rothenberg Political Report[13] Currently Safe Republican
Overall Call Republican

Polling

Successive polls taken after the primary show Republican Mary Fallins with a commanding 15% lead. And she is above the 50% threshold - for now. Her support as fallen slightly as Democrat Janet Askins picks up a few points. However, the race is still favoring the GOP.

Comparing post-primary numbers to available surveys taken early in the year show that even when a Fallins v. Askins race was only a hypothetical, Fallins held a strikingly similar lead.

General election polling

2010 Race for Oklahoma Governor - Rasmussen Reports[14]
Date Reported Fallin Askins Other Don't Know
September 23, 2010[15] 60% 34% 1% 5%
August 26, 2010[16] 52% 37% 4% 7%
July 28, 2010[17] 57% 36% 2% 3%
June 30, 2010[18] 55% 32% 7% 7%
February 24, 2010[19] 51% 37% 6% 6%

Primary election polling

2010 Race for Oklahoma Governor - Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported Fallin Askins Other Don't Know
July 7, 2010[20] 55% 32% 7% 7%
March 3, 2010[21] 51% 37% 6% 6%
Date Reported Brogden Askins Other Don't Know
July 7, 2010[22] 47% 38% 6% 9%
March 3, 2010[23] 39% 42% 8% 11%
Date Reported Hubbard Askins Other Don't Know
July 7, 2010[24] 43% 38% 8% 11%
Date Reported Jackson Askins Other Don't Know
July 7, 2010[25] 42% 40% 8% 11%
Date Reported Fallin Edmondson Other Don't Know
July 7, 2010[26] 48% 39% 3% 10%
March 3, 2010[27] 51% 36% 5% 8%
Date Reported Brogdon Edmondson Other Don't Know
July 7, 2010[28] 35% 46% 5% 14%
March 3, 2010[29] 42% 41% 5% 12%
Date Reported Hubbard Edmondson Other Don't Know
July 7, 2010[30] 31% 44% 8% 18%
Date Reported Jackson Edmondson Other Don't Know
July 7, 2010[31] 29% 45% 8% 18%
(Sample)[32] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05
2010 Race for Oklahoma Governor - Public Policy Polling[33]
Date Reported Fallin Askins Other Don't Know
May 20, 2009[34] 50% 34% -% 16%
Date Reported Fallin Edmondson Other Don't Know
May 20, 2009[35] 48% 38% -% 14%

Candidates

The November Ballot – Who Made It? Oklahoma Governor[36]
Nominee Affiliation
Jari Askins Democrat
Mary Fallin Republican
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who were officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

Oklahoma's Secretary of State maintains a list of certified candidates.[37]

Democratic

  • Attorney Jari Askins, the current Lt. Governor, became the first announced announced candidate in January of 2009.
  • Navy veteran and four term Attorney General Drew Edmondson

Republican

  • Randy Brogdon, a state Senator and advocate of states' rights
  • Mary Fallin, currently representing Oklahoma's 5th District in Congress, has previously been a state Representative and Oklahoma's Lt. Governor
  • Businessman and rancher Robert Hubbard
  • Salesman Roger L. Jackson

Race background

The Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010 and Cook Political Report ranked the race as "Leans Republican" as of June 2010.[38][39]

As of early July, Mary Fallin had emerged as the strongest GOP candidate while Drew Edmondson led among Democratic contenders. In a hypothetical match-up of the two, Fallin beat Edmondson 48% to 39%.[40] Earlier in the year, Fallin held an even larger lead, polling at 51% to Edmondson's 36%.[41]

Final polls heading into the July primary indicated that a November matchup between Republican Mary Fallin and Democrat Drew Edmondson was still the most likely scenario. As of July 25, 2010, each had a very comfortable lead over their closest intra-party rivals.[42] Congresswoman Fallin led Randy Brogdon by 38 points. Attorney General Edmondson had grown his lead to 49% among likely voters, giving him a double digit edge over Lt. Governor Jari Askins' 33%. For the Democratic primary, that was a continuation of a primary season long trend since January, when Askins and Edmondson were only 10 points apart.

On the GOP ticket, Fallin's lead had actually fallen 12 points overall January from July. However, this didn't helped Brogdon's beleaguered campaign. He only picked up two points, finishing with 18%. Voters who reported being undecided among Republican candidates grew 6 points, meaning one in five, or 22%, were unsure of their vote with one day left before the primary.

That mirrored findings in a Sooner Survey, which found Fallin leading in the Republican primary 50% to Brogdon's 22%.[43] Robert Hubbard and Roger L. Jackson, the other candidates in the GOP field, both took 1%. Projecting this forward, a Fallin victory with over 60% of the primary vote was not out of the question. She led Brogon 56% to 23% on Oklahoma city, reflecting an impressive saturation in urban areas; she also bet him 53% - 18% in the state's expansive rural areas.

The same survey found Edmondson up 11 points over Askins, certainly a more fluid race than the Republicans, but enough of a margin that Edmondson was expected to win comfortably.

Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results[44]
Candidates Percentage
Frank Keating (R) 57.86%
Laura Boyd (D) 40.93%
Hoppy Heidelberg (REF) 1.21%
Total votes 873,585
2002 Gubernatorial Results[45]
Candidates Percentage
Brad Henry (D) 43.28%
Steve Largent (R) 42.61%
Gary Richardson (I) 14.12%
Total votes 1,035,620
2006 Gubernatorial Results[46]
Candidates Percentage
Brad Henry (D) 66.50%
Ernest Istook (R) 33.50%
Total votes 926,462

Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 60.31%
Al Gore (D) 38.48%
2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 65.57%
John Kerry (D) 34.43%
2008 Presidential Results[47]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 65.65%
Barack Obama (D) 34.35%
1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 42.65%
Bill Clinton (D) 34.02%
1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 48.26%
Bill Clinton (D) 40.45%

External links

Candidate pages

See also

References

  1. Oklahoma State Board of Elections, "Summary Results, General Election - November 2, 2010," accessed November 12, 2010 and November 30, 2010
  2. NewsOK, "Fallin chooses transition team leaders ," November 9, 2010
  3. Oklahoma Watchdog, "Troubled Coffee to be part of Fallin transition team ," November 8, 2010
  4. Transition Central, "Governor-elect Fallin Will Retain Oscar Jackson as Secretary of Human Resources and Administration and OPM Administrator," November 22, 2010
  5. The Washington Post, "Fallin, Askins to face off in battle to become Oklahoma's first woman governor," July 28, 2010
  6. The Tulsa World, "Fallin, Edmondson have leads in poll," July 25, 2010
  7. Oklahoma State Board of Elections, "Unofficial Results," July 27, 2010
  8. Oklahoma State Board of Elections, "Unofficial Results," July 27, 2010
  9. The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  10. CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  11. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2010 Governor Ratings”
  12. Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  13. Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  14. Rasmussen Reports, "Topline: Oklahoma Governor 2010," accessed July 31, 2010
  15. Rasmussen Reports, "Oklahoma Governor: Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) Earns Highest Support Yet," September 24, 2010
  16. Rasmussen Reports, "Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 52%, Askins (D) 37%," August 27, 2010
  17. Rasmussen Reports, "Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 57%, Askins (D) 36%," July 29, 2010
  18. Rasmussen Reports, "Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 48%, Edmonson (D) 39%," July 7, 2010
  19. Rasmussen Reports, "Oklahoma Governor: GOP’s Fallin Is Early Front-Runner," March 3, 2010
  20. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 48%, Edmonson (D) 39%," July 7, 2010
  21. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: GOP's Fallin is Early Front-Runner," March 3, 2010
  22. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 48%, Edmonson (D) 39%," July 7, 2010
  23. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: GOP's Fallin is Early Front-Runner," March 3, 2010
  24. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 48%, Edmonson (D) 39%," July 7, 2010
  25. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 48%, Edmonson (D) 39%," July 7, 2010
  26. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 48%, Edmonson (D) 39%," July 7, 2010
  27. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: GOP's Fallin is Early Front-Runner," March 3, 2010
  28. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 48%, Edmonson (D) 39%," July 7, 2010
  29. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: GOP's Fallin is Early Front-Runner," March 3, 2010
  30. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 48%, Edmonson (D) 39%," July 7, 2010
  31. Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 48%, Edmonson (D) 39%," July 7, 2010
  32. [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  33. [Full crosstabs and methodology are available free of charge with the press release accompanying each poll]
  34. Public Policy Polling, "Republicans Favored in Governor's Race," May 20, 2009
  35. Public Policy Polling, "Republicans Favored in Governor's Race," May 20, 2009
  36. Oklahoma State Election Board, “SUMMARY RESULTS: Primary Election — July 27, 2010”,
  37. Oklahoma State Elections Board, "CANDIDATES FOR STATE ELECTIVE OFFICE: 2010," June 9, 2010
  38. CQ Politics, "Race Ratings Chart 2010: Governor"
  39. Cook Political Report, "Gubernatorial races 2010
  40. Rasmussen reports, "Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 48%, Edmondson (D) 39%," July 7, 2010
  41. Rasmussen Reports, "Oklahoma Governor: GOP’s Fallin Is Early Front-Runner," March 3, 2010
  42. Tulsa World, "Fallin, Edmondson have leads in poll," July 25, 2010
  43. Sooner Survey, "Edmondson and Fallin Headed for Showdown," July 26, 2010
  44. US Election Atlas, “1998 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Oklahoma”
  45. US Election Atlas, “2002 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Oklahoma”
  46. Oklahoma State Election Board, “2006 General Election Results“
  47. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010