Oregon's 5th Congressional District elections, 2012

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Oregon's 5th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
May 15, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Kurt Schrader Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Kurt Schrader Democratic Party
Kurt Schrader.jpg

Oregon U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Oregon.png
The 5th Congressional District of Oregon held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.

Incumbent Kurt Schrader (D) was re-elected on November 6, 2012, having defeated Fred Thompson (R), Christina Jean Lugo (Pacific Green) and Raymond Baldwin (Constitution) in the general election.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 6, 2012
May 15, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Oregon has a closed primary system, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary April 24. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 16.[2]

See also: Oregon elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Kurt Schrader, (D), who has served since 2009 and won re-election on November 6, 2012.

This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. Oregon's 5th Congressional District is located in the northwestern portion of the state and includes Clackamas, Marion, Polk and Lincoln counties.[3]

This is the 5th Congressional District prior to the 2010 redistricting.

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Kurt Schrader Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Fred Thompson
Green Party Christina Jean Lugo
Constitution Party Raymond Baldwin


May 15, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Green Party Pacific Green Party

Election results

U.S. House, Oregon District 5 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKurt Schrader Incumbent 54% 177,229
     Republican Fred Thompson 42.4% 139,223
     Green Christina Jean Lugo 2.3% 7,516
     Constitution Raymond Baldwin 1.1% 3,600
     Write-In N/A 0.1% 402
Total Votes 327,970
Source: Oregon Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"
U.S. House, Oregon District 5 Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngFred Thompson 67.4% 33,448
Karen Bowerman 32.6% 16,174
Total Votes 49,622

Race background

Competitiveness

Oregon's 5th was considered to be Leaning Democratic according to the New York Times race ratings. Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader was challenged by Fred Thompson (R) in a district which was made more competitive by redistricting.[7]

In August, 2012, Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Report rated the district as safe Democratic.[8][9]

Schrader defeated Thompson in the general election by a margin of over ten percentage points.[10]

Impact of Redistricting

See also Redistricting in Oregon

The 5th District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[11][12]

Registration statistics

As of October 30, 2012, District 5 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the Oregon Secretary of State:

Oregon Congressional District 5[13]
Congressional District District Total Democrats Republicans Other & Unaffiliated Advantage Party Advantage Change in Advantage from 2010
District 5 398,500 151,681 142,740 104,079 Democratic 6.26% -6.08%
"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Oregon's 5th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[14]

  • 2012: 51D / 49R
  • 2010: 52D / 48R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Oregon's 5th Congressional District has a PVI of "even," and is ranked the 186th most Democratic district in the county. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 55-45 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-349 percent over John Kerry (D).[15]

Campaign media

Campaign sites

Kurt Schrader

Fred Thompson

Raymond Baldwin

Campaign Advertisements

Kurt Schrader


Kurt Schrader TV spot:"The Woods"

Kurt Schrader TV spot:"Put Oregon First, Always"

Raymond Baldwin


"Raymond Lee Baldwin for congress" Sept. 11, 2012

Campaign finance

Fred Thompson (2012)[16] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April QuarterlyApril 13, 2012$0$4,970$(4)$4,965
Pre-PrimaryMay 3, 2012$4,965$665$(2,458)$3,171
July QuarterlyJuly 13, 2012$3,171$2,373$(5,008)$536
October Quarterly[17]October 15, 2012$536.63$12,628.24$(9,551.97)$3,612.90
Running totals
$20,636.24$(17,021.97)
Kurt Schrader (2012)[18] Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April QuarterlyApril 3, 2012$657,296$189,686$(56,974)$790,008
Pre-PrimaryMay 3, 2012$790,008$14,796$(73,575)$731,229
July Quarterly[19]July 13, 2013$731,229.49$239,903.46$(76,743.23)$894,389.72
October Quarterly[20]October 15, 2012$894,389.72$315,695.00$(183,630.39)$1,026,454.33
Running totals
$760,080.46$(390,922.62)

District History

2010

On November 2, 2010, Schrader won re-election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated Scott Bruun and Chris Lugo in the general election.[21]

U.S. House, Oregon District 5 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKurt Schrader Incumbent 51.3% 145,319
     Republican Scott Bruun 46% 130,313
     Pacific Green Chris Lugo 2.7% 7,557
Total Votes 283,189

See also

References

  1. CNN "Oregon Districts Race - 2012 Election Center"
  2. OregonVotes, "Important Election Dates," accessed July 26, 2012
  3. Oregon Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed August 9, 2012
  4. OregonCity News Thompson announces another run for 5th Congressional District seat December 9, 2011
  5. Lake Oswego Review "LO resident announces run for Congress" accessed March 8, 2012
  6. Orestar Candidate Filing
  7. New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 10, 2012
  8. Center for Politics, "Sabato's Crystal Ball," August 28, 2012
  9. The Cook Report, "Race ratings," August 15, 2012
  10. Oregon Secretary of State, "General election results," accessed November 13, 2012
  11. Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "Oregon's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
  12. Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
  13. Oregon Secretary of State, "Voter Registration Reports, 2012," May, 2012
  14. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Oregon," September 2012
  15. Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
  16. Federal Election Commission, "Fred Thompson 2012 Candidate Detail," accessed October 1, 2012
  17. Federal Election Commission, "Fred Thompson October Quarterly Report," October 15, 2012
  18. Federal Election Commission, "Kurt Schrader 2012 Candidate Detail," accessed October 1, 2012
  19. Federal Election Commission, "Kurt Schrader July Quarterly Report," July 15, 2012
  20. Federal Election Commission, "Kurt Schrader October Quarterly Report," October 15, 2012
  21. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"