Primary change: August ends with 100th Republican incumbent losing in a primary in 2012
By Geoff Pallay
MADISON, Wisconsin: A busy month of primaries came to a close yesterday with three voters going to the polls in Alaska, Arizona and Vermont. At least two incumbents fell in primaries -- both in Alaska -- bringing this year's total of incumbents defeated to 157.
On July 26, 2012, Ballotpedia released an analysis of the rate at which incumbents are being defeated by challengers in state legislative primaries. That study was conducted roughly halfway through the primary season, and found that 76 incumbents had been defeated through the first 48 percent of primaries. After each primary, we will update those figures. This update focuses on Alaska, Arizona and Vermont.
Of the 157 incumbents that have lost a primary in 2012, 57 are Democratic incumbents and 100 are Republican incumbents. Thus far, 17.16 percent of incumbents facing a primary opponent have been defeated.
A total of 53 Alaska legislative incumbents filed for re-election. Seventeen incumbents faced a primary, and opponents were victorious in two of those races. Thus, 11.76 percent of opposed incumbents were defeated by their primary challenger.
The two total incumbents who lost last night is higher than the 0 total incumbents who lost a 2010 primary in Alaska. There are still two races that are too close to call involving incumbents.
A total of 59 Arizona legislative incumbents filed for re-election. Twenty-seven incumbents faced a primary, and opponents were victorious in none of those races.
The 0 total incumbents who lost last night is much lower than the four who lost in 2010. There are still three races that are too close to call involving incumbents.
A total of 155 Vermont legislative incumbents filed for re-election. Thirteen incumbents faced a primary, and opponents were victorious in none of those races.
The 0 total incumbents who lost last night is the same as in 2010.
The next state legislative primaries takes place Thursday, September 6 in Massachusetts.
Cumulative table of results
|Individual State Results||Nationwide Cumulative Results|
|State||Primary date||Total Incumbents Running||Total Incumbents Facing Primary||Total Incumbents Defeated||% Incumbents Defeated***||Total Incumbents Defeated||Total Incumbents Facing primary||% Incumbents Defeated***|
|***Note: The percent is calculated by dividing the total number of incumbents who lost by the number of incumbents who actually faced a primary. It is not using the total number of incumbents who ran for re-election.
+++A 12th incumbent lost in the Georgia August 21, 2012 runoff. Eleven incumbents lost in the July 31 primary.
&&& As of August 29, there are still three races involving incumbents that are too close to call.
^^^ As of August 29, there are still two races involving incumbents that are too close to call.
- Incumbents defeated in 2012's state legislative elections
- State legislative elections, 2012
- 2012 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
- Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Analysis for 2012
- Major party candidates with no major party challengers in the November 2012 state legislative elections
- Open seats in the 2012 state legislative elections
- Incumbents with a primary challenger in the 2012 state legislative elections