Primary preview: Kansas state executive elections, 2014

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search

August 4, 2014

Kansas

By Maresa Strano

August 4, 2014 Election Preview
StateExecLogo.png

Jump to the section for:
*Kansas Governor and Lieutenant Governor
*Kansas Attorney General
*Kansas Secretary of State
*Kansas Treasurer
*Kansas Insurance Commissioner

TOPEKA, Kansas: Six state executive positions are up for election in 2014 in the state of Kansas: governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, state treasurer and insurance commissioner. Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run together on a single ticket.

Five of the six incumbents are seeking re-election, including Governor Sam Brownback (R), Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer (R), Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R), Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Treasurer Ron Estes.[1][2][3][4]

The sole exception is Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger (R), who has opted to retire from office next January upon completing her third term as head of the Kansas Department of Insurance, which regulates and reviews companies for financial solvency and regulatory compliance, educates consumers and helps license agents selling insurance products in the state.[5][6]

All six state executive positions in Kansas are currently held by Republicans.

On August 5, voters will nominate candidates from three total contested fields—the Republican primaries for governor/lieutenant governor, secretary of state and insurance commissioner—to send to the general election. The other nine potential fields failed to draw more than one candidate from each of the major parties. The unopposed nominees will automatically advance to the November 4 ballot.[7] Kansas is one of 12 states to use a strictly closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[8][9][10]

Below, Ballotpedia has put together a preview of those upcoming elections.

In Kansas, most polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Central Time, as Kansas mandates in its state laws that the polls must be open a minimum of 12 hours. Counties may open the polls earlier and close them later.[11]

Kansas is divided between Central and Mountain time zones.



Kansas Governor/Lt. Governor

See also: Kansas Gubernatorial election, 2014

Running mates listed together in order of "Governor/Lieutenant Governor"

General election

Republican Party Sam Brownback/Jeff Colyer- Incumbents Green check mark transparent.png[12][13]
Democratic Party Paul Davis/Jill Docking[14][15][16]
Libertarian Party Keen A. Umbehr/Josh Umbehr[17][18][19]

Lost in primary

Republican Party Jennifer Winn/Robin Lais[20][21]
Libertarian Party Tresa McAlhaney/Grant Nelson[22][23]

Race background

Candidate filing period

On June 2, the filing window for Republican and Democratic candidates pursuing a place on the 2014 Kansas gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial ballot came to a close. One set of Republicans - led by landscape contractor Jennifer Winn - filed to take on the incumbent duo in the August 5 primary election. Meanwhile, Paul Davis, the state House Minority Leader, along with his running mate Jill Docking, were the only Democratic pair to enter the race, earning a free pass to the general election. Also joining the November lineup in advance of the primary election were Libertarian candidates Keen and Josh Umbehr. The father and son ticket knocked out a single set of opponents for their party's nomination at the Kansas Libertarian Party convention, which took place April 26, 2014.[24][25]

Highly competitive race

This contest was considered to be highly competitive, with match-up polls and race ratings dating back to the fall of 2013 underscoring the legitimacy of Davis' threat. One of the first publications to declare Brownback's vulnerability was The Washington Post, which named Kansas as one of its top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014, citing Brownback's poor approval ratings, "well shy of 50 percent."[26] Indeed, Brownback's approval ratings had been hovering around 35 percent since January 2012.[27]

Kansas was one of nine gubernatorial seats to be flagged as a "toss-up" or vulnerable for partisan switch in the 2014 cycle, based on polling data and projections courtesy of The Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Governing, among others.[28][29][30]

Republican endorsements for Davis

By July 2014, Brownback's troubles crested when over 100 influential Republicans defected to the Davis campaign. The self-styled "Republicans for Kansas Values," comprised of GOP retirees and current officeholders, explained the unorthodox endorsement of Brownback's Democratic challenger as a response to steep cuts to education funding and tax cuts that contributed to a $340 million budget shortfall during the 2014 fiscal year.[31] Rather than make it a partisan matter, the race "must be about electing a moderate, commonsense Kansan as governor," stated ex-state Senate president Dick Bond on behalf of the group.[32] Polling in July also indicated that 29 percent of Republicans would vote for Davis, which marked a five-point increase from the previous month. These polls, conducted by Survey USA/KSN News, also showed Brownback losing by an average of seven points. In contrast, YouGov poll in July that showed a 10-point lead for Brownback. Polling experts and representatives of each campaign commented on how divergent polling methodologies can yield seemingly irreconcilable results. In this case, such disparities caused a rise in skepticism about the reliability of polling data in the final approach to the November general election, which Brownback ultimately won.[33]

Polls

Governor of Kansas - All candidates
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)Keen Umbehr(L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
June 19-23, 2014
41%47%5%7%+/-3.11,068
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
July 23, 2014
40%48%5%7%+/-2.91,208
Public Policy Polling
August 14-17, 2014
37%39%9%15%+/-3.3903
SurveyUSA/KSN-TV
September 4-7, 2014
40%47%5%7%+/-4.2555
Public Policy Polling
September 11-14, 2014
38%42%7%14%+/-2.71,328
Fort Hays State University
September 10-27, 2014
36.5%38.8%8.5%16%+/-3.8952
NBC News/Marist Poll
October 2014
43%44%4%8%+/-3.9636
SurveyUSA/KSN-TV
October 2-5, 2014
42%47%4%7%+/-4.3775
Public Policy Polling
October 9-12, 2014
42%42%6%10%+/-31,081
Rasmussen Reports
October 20-21, 2014
45%52%1%2%+/-3960
NBC News/Marist
October 24, 2014
44%45%5%7%+/-3.6757
KSN/SurveyUSA
October 28, 2014
43%46%5%7%+/-4623
AVERAGES 40.96% 44.82% 5.38% 8.92% +/-3.48 903.83
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates and undecided
Poll Sam Brownback * (R) Paul Davis (D)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
{September 20-October 1, 2014)
45%42%12%+/-32,013
Gravis Marketing
(September 30-October 1, 2014)
40%48%12%+/-3850
Monmouth University
(October 16-19, 2014)
45%50%5%+/-4.7429
Gravis Marketing
(October 20-21, 2014)
44%49%7%+/-31,124
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
{October 16-23, 2014)
43%40%17%+/-41,973
AVERAGES 43.4% 45.8% 10.6% +/-3.54 1,277.8
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates, other and undecided
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)OtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
CBS/NYT/YouGov (Without leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
47%37%3%2%+/--1,274
CBS/NYT/YouGov (With leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
52%40%3%2%+/--1,274
Rasmussen
August 6-7, 2014
41%51%3%5%+/-4.0750
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R-Brownback)
August 17-30, 2014
43%42%0%0%+/-4.3500
CBS/NYT/YouGov
August 18-September 2, 2014
47%40%2%11%+/-5.0839
Public Policy Polling (Umbehr supporters reallocated
September 11-14, 2014
39%45%0%15%+/-2.71,328
AVERAGES 44.83% 42.5% 1.83% 5.83% +/-2.67 994.17
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas - Major party candidates and "third party" category
Poll Sam Brownback/Jeff Coyler (R) Paul Davis/Jill Docking (D)Third PartyUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA Poll
(October 23-24, 2013)
39%43%12%6%+/-4.4511
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Kansas Attorney General

See also: Kansas attorney general election, 2014

General election

Republican Party Derek Schmidt - Incumbent Green check mark transparent.png
Democratic Party A.J. Kotich[34]


Kansas Secretary of State

See also: Kansas secretary of state election, 2014

General election

Republican Party Kris Kobach - Incumbent Green check mark transparent.png[35]
Democratic Party Jean Schodorf - Former Republican state Sen. representing District 25[36]

Lost in the primary

Republican Party Scott Morgan - Former Lawrence School Board President, businessman, attorney[37][38]


Kansas Treasurer

See also: Kansas down ballot state executive elections, 2014

General election

Republican Party Ron Estes - Incumbent Green check mark transparent.png
Democratic Party Carmen Alldritt[39]


Kansas Insurance Commissioner

See also: Kansas down ballot state executive elections, 2014

Republican incumbent Sandy Praeger is not running for re-election in 2014, leaving the seat open.

General election

Democratic Party Dennis Anderson - Family business owner[40]
Republican Party Ken Selzer Green check mark transparent.png- Accountant[41]

Retiring

Republican Party Sandy Praeger Incumbent[42]

Lost in the primary

Republican Party Beverly Gossage - Republican Party Activist, Businesswoman[43]
Republican Party David Powell - Insurance Agent[44]
Republican Party Clark Shultz - State Rep. and insurance auditor[41]
Republican Party John Toplikar - 6th District Johnson County Commissioner[45]


See also

Ballotpedia News

References

  1. Lawrence Journal-World, "Brownback running for re-election," June 21, 2013
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial races," March 4, 2013
  3. Kris Kobach for Secretary of State, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  4. Ron Estes for Treasurer 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  5. Kansas Insurance Commission, "About us," accessed December 17, 2012
  6. The Topeka Capitol-Journal, "Robust GOP primary likely for insurance commissioner," April 12, 2013
  7. Kansas Secretary of State, "Candidates for the 2014 Primary (official)," accessed August 4, 2014
  8. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  9. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  10. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  11. Vote Kansas, "A Guide to Voting in Kansas - 2014," accessed January 3, 2014
  12. Lawrence Journal-World, "Brownback running for re-election," June 21, 2013
  13. Lawrence Journal-World, "Brownback running for re-election," June 21, 2013
  14. The Topeka Capital-Journal, "Davis launches Democratic campaign for Kansas governor," September 17, 2013
  15. Wichita Eagle, "Paul Davis forms committee for governor's race," August 8, 2013 (dead link)
  16. Kentucky.com, "Davis teams with Docking in Kansas governor's race," October 22, 2013
  17. Keen A. Umbehr for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed October 8, 2013
  18. Kansas First News, Alma lawyer seeks Libertarian nod for governor, August 29, 2013
  19. The Wichita Eagle, "Physician campaigning as Libertarian dad’s running mate in Kansas governor’s race," May 22, 2014
  20. Jennifer Winn for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed February 18, 2014
  21. Kansas Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Candidates List," accessed June 18, 2014
  22. Tresa McAlhane for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013 (dead link)
  23. Grant Nelson for Lieutenant Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013 (dead link)
  24. The Wichita Eagle, "Physician campaigning as Libertarian dad’s running mate in Kansas governor’s race," May 22, 2014
  25. Keen For Kansas, "Home," accessed October 6, 2013
  26. The Washington Post, "The Fix's top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014," November 15, 2013
  27. Kansas City Star, "Surveys find a hint of election vulnerability in Gov. Sam Brownback," October 29, 2013
  28. University of Virginia Center for Politics, "2014 Governor," accessed July 30, 2014
  29. Governing, "2014 Governors Races: A Look at the Too-Close-to-Call Contests," March 6, 2014
  30. FiveThirtyEight, "Governors’ Races Are Close, But There’s More Upside For Democrats," July 17, 2014
  31. The New York Times, "Kansas Democrats Turn to Data in Governor's Race," July 30, 2014
  32. The Washington Post, "More than 100 Republicans endorse Democrat against Kansas Gov. Brownback (R)," July 15, 2014
  33. The Wichita Eagle, "Polls on the Kansas governor's race vary widely," July 26, 2014
  34. Kansas Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Candidates List," accessed June 18, 2014
  35. Kris Kobach for Secretary of State, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  36. Saline Journal, "Schodorf to run for secretary of state," September 25, 2013
  37. Scott Morgan for Secretary of State 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed June 9, 2014
  38. The Wichita Eagle, "GOP’s Scott Morgan to take on Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach," May 22, 2014
  39. Kansas Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Candidates List," accessed June 18, 2014
  40. Dennis Anderson for Insurance Commissioner 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed April 28, 2014
  41. 41.0 41.1 Kansas.com, "Former budget chief Anderson joins Selzer campaign for Insurance Commissioner," September 12, 2013
  42. The Topeka Capitol-Journal, "Robust GOP primary likely for insurance commissioner," April 12, 2013
  43. Beverly Gossage for Insurance Commissioner 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  44. David Powell for Insurance Commissioner 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  45. John Toplikar, Kansas, "Timeline," accessed April 28, 2014