Primary preview: Kansas state executive elections, 2014

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search

August 4, 2014

Kansas

By Maresa Strano

August 4, 2014 Election Preview
StateExecLogo.png

Jump to the section for:
*Kansas Governor and Lieutenant Governor
*Kansas Attorney General
*Kansas Secretary of State
*Kansas Treasurer
*Kansas Insurance Commissioner

TOPEKA, Kansas: Six state executive positions are up for election in 2014 in the state of Kansas: governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, state treasurer and insurance commissioner. Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run together on a single ticket.

Five of the six incumbents are seeking re-election, including Governor Sam Brownback (R), Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer (R), Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R), Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Treasurer Ron Estes.[1][2][3][4]

The sole exception is Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger (R), who has opted to retire from office next January upon completing her third term as head of the Kansas Department of Insurance, which regulates and reviews companies for financial solvency and regulatory compliance, educates consumers and helps license agents selling insurance products in the state.[5][6]

All six state executive positions in Kansas are currently held by Republicans.

On August 5, voters will nominate candidates from three total contested fields—the Republican primaries for governor/lieutenant governor, secretary of state and insurance commissioner—to send to the general election. The other nine potential fields failed to draw more than one candidate from each of the major parties. The unopposed nominees will automatically advance to the November 4 ballot.[7] Kansas is one of 12 states to use a strictly closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[8][9][10]

Below, Ballotpedia has put together a preview of those upcoming elections.

In Kansas, most polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Central Time, as Kansas mandates in its state laws that the polls must be open a minimum of 12 hours. Counties may open the polls earlier and close them later.[11]

Kansas is divided between Central and Mountain time zones.



Kansas Governor/Lt. Governor

See also: Kansas Gubernatorial election, 2014

Running mates listed together in order of "Governor/Lieutenant Governor"

General election candidates

Lost in Primary

Race background

First term Republican Governor Sam Brownback is seeking re-election in 2014; re-teaming with his 2010 running mate and current Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer for the campaign.

On June 2, the filing window for Republican and Democratic candidates pursuing a place on the 2014 Kansas gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial ballot came to a close. One set of Republicans - led by landscape contractor Jennifer Winn - filed to take on the incumbent duo in the August 5 primary election. Meanwhile, Paul Davis, the state House Minority Leader, along with his running mate Jill Docking, were the only Democratic pair to enter the race, earning a free pass to the general election. Also joining the November lineup in advance of the primary election were Libertarian candidates Keen and Josh Umbehr. The father and son ticket knocked out a single set of opponents for their party's nomination at the Kansas Libertarian Party convention, which took place April 26, 2014.[24][25]

This contest is considered to be highly competitive; match-up polls and race ratings dating back to the fall of 2013 have continually underscored the legitimacy of Davis' threat to Brownback's chances of winning a second term in the 2014 general election. One of the first to declare Brownback's vulnerability was The Washington Post, which named Kansas as one of its top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014, citing Brownback's poor approval ratings as "well shy of 50%."[26] Indeed, Brownback's approval ratings had been hovering around 35% since January 2012.[27]

By July 2014, one month before the primary, Brownback's troubles crested when over 100 influential Republicans defected to Davis' side. The self-styled "Republicans for Kansas Values," comprised of GOP retirees and current officeholders, explained the unorthodox endorsement of Brownback's Democratic challenger was motivated by the governor's push for various steep cuts to education funding as well as tax cuts—resulting in a shortfall of $340 million in tax revenue for the 2014 fiscal year—despite fervent admonitions from the party's centrist contingent.[28] Rather than make it a partisan matter, the race "must be about electing a moderate, commonsense Kansan as governor," stated ex-state Senate president Dick Bond on behalf of the group.[29] Furthermore, the month of July brought the number of registered Republicans who say they would vote for Davis up to 29%, a five point increase from the previous month, according to successive SurveyUSA/KSN News polls, which also showed Brownback trailing Davis by six and eight points, respectively. A YouGov poll conducted contemporaneously over the internet was released soon thereafter and offered a starkly contrasting view of the race, giving Brownback a ten point lead over Davis, his biggest yet this cycle. Polling experts and representatives of each campaign commented on how the polls' differing methodologies can yield seemingly irreconcilable results. In this case, such disparities may cause many who follow the race to regard polls more skeptically as the election season progresses.[30]

Kansas is one of nine gubernatorial seats to be flagged as a toss-up or vulnerable for partisan switch in the 2014 cycle, based on polling data and projections courtesy of The Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Governing, among others, current as of September 2014.[31][32][33]


Polls

Governor of Kansas
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)OtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
CBS/NYT/YouGov (Without leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
47%37%3%2%+/--1,274
CBS/NYT/YouGov (With leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
52%40%3%2%+/--1,274
Rasmussen
August 6-7, 2014
41%51%3%5%+/-4.0750
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R-Brownback)
August 17-30, 2014
43%42%0%0%+/-4.3500
CBS/NYT/YouGov
August 18-September 2, 2014
47%40%2%11%+/-5.0839
Public Policy Polling (Umbehr supporters reallocated
September 11-14, 2014
39%45%0%15%+/-2.71,328
AVERAGES 44.83% 42.5% 1.83% 5.83% +/-2.67 994.17
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)Keen Umbehr(L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
June 19-23, 2014
41%47%5%7%+/-3.11,068
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
July 23, 2014
40%48%5%7%+/-2.91,208
Public Policy Polling
August 14-17, 2014
37%39%9%15%+/-3.3903
SurveyUSA/KSN-TV
September 4-7, 2014
40%47%5%7%+/-4.2555
Public Policy Polling
September 11-14, 2014
38%42%7%14%+/-2.71,328
AVERAGES 39.2% 44.6% 6.2% 10% +/-3.24 1,012.4
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas
Poll Sam Brownback/Jeff Coyler (R) Paul Davis/Jill Docking (D)Third PartyUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA Poll
(October 23-24, 2013)
39%43%12%6%+/-4.4511
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Kansas Attorney General

See also: Kansas attorney general election, 2014

General election candidates


Kansas Secretary of State

See also: Kansas secretary of state election, 2014

General election candidates

Lost in the primary


Kansas Treasurer

See also: Kansas down ballot state executive elections, 2014

General election candidates



Kansas Insurance Commissioner

See also: Kansas down ballot state executive elections, 2014

Republican incumbent Sandy Praeger is not running for re-election in 2014, leaving the seat open.

General election candidates

Lost in the primary



See also

Ballotpedia News

References

  1. Lawrence Journal-World, "Brownback running for re-election," June 21, 2013
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2013-2014 Gubernatorial races," March 4, 2013
  3. Kris Kobach for Secretary of State, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  4. Ron Estes for Treasurer 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  5. Kansas Insurance Commission, "About us," accessed December 17, 2012
  6. The Topeka Capitol-Journal, "Robust GOP primary likely for insurance commissioner," April 12, 2013
  7. Kansas Secretary of State, "Candidates for the 2014 Primary (official)," accessed August 4, 2014
  8. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  9. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  10. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  11. Vote Kansas, "A Guide to Voting in Kansas - 2014," accessed January 3, 2014
  12. Lawrence Journal-World, "Brownback running for re-election," June 21, 2013
  13. Lawrence Journal-World, "Brownback running for re-election," June 21, 2013
  14. The Topeka Capital-Journal, "Davis launches Democratic campaign for Kansas governor," September 17, 2013
  15. Wichita Eagle, "Paul Davis forms committee for governor's race," August 8, 2013
  16. Kentucky.com, "Davis teams with Docking in Kansas governor's race," October 22, 2013
  17. Keen A. Umbehr for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed October 8, 2013
  18. Kansas First News, Alma lawyer seeks Libertarian nod for governor, August 29, 2013
  19. The Wichita Eagle, "Physician campaigning as Libertarian dad’s running mate in Kansas governor’s race," May 22, 2014
  20. Jennifer Winn for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed February 18, 2014
  21. Kansas Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Candidates List," accessed June 18, 2014
  22. Tresa McAlhane for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  23. Grant Nelson for Lieutenant Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  24. The Wichita Eagle, "Physician campaigning as Libertarian dad’s running mate in Kansas governor’s race," May 22, 2014
  25. Keen For Kansas, "Home," accessed October 6, 2013
  26. The Washington Post, "The Fix's top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014," November 15, 2013
  27. Kansas City Star, "Surveys find a hint of election vulnerability in Gov. Sam Brownback," October 29, 2013
  28. The New York Times, "Kansas Democrats Turn to Data in Governor's Race," July 30, 2014
  29. The Washington Post, "More than 100 Republicans endorse Democrat against Kansas Gov. Brownback (R)," July 15, 2014
  30. The Wichita Eagle, "Polls on the Kansas governor's race vary widely," July 26, 2014
  31. University of Virginia Center for Politics, "2014 Governor," accessed July 30, 2014
  32. Governing, "2014 Governors Races: A Look at the Too-Close-to-Call Contests," March 6, 2014
  33. FiveThirtyEight, "Governors’ Races Are Close, But There’s More Upside For Democrats," July 17, 2014
  34. Kansas Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Candidates List," accessed June 18, 2014
  35. Kris Kobach for Secretary of State, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  36. Saline Journal, "Schodorf to run for secretary of state," September 25, 2013
  37. Scott Morgan for Secretary of State 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed June 9, 2014
  38. The Wichita Eagle, "GOP’s Scott Morgan to take on Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach," May 22, 2014
  39. Kansas Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Candidates List," accessed June 18, 2014
  40. Dennis Anderson for Insurance Commissioner 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed April 28, 2014
  41. 41.0 41.1 Kansas.com, "Former budget chief Anderson joins Selzer campaign for Insurance Commissioner," September 12, 2013
  42. Beverly Gossage for Insurance Commissioner 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  43. David Powell for Insurance Commissioner 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 23, 2013
  44. John Toplikar, Kansas, "Timeline," accessed April 28, 2014