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Projected outcomes of 2011 state executive official elections

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2011 State Executive Elections

13 state executive seats and 13 down ballot seats were up for election in a total of four states. In the three months leading up to the general election, Ballotpedia produced a monthly report of projected outcomes for 2011's state executive elections. The summary of these reports, which focused only on the races for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state, is below.

This page is an overview of Ballotpedia's projected outcomes in 2011's state executive elections. For each of the state races, the expected outcome is displayed in 1 of 7 classifications. In some cases, the only two highly relevant pieces of information that are available to allow an assessment are (a) how the statewide electorate voted in the 2008 presidential election and (b) the most recent election outcome for the specific office. However, if available, other information is also taken into account. For example: campaign fundraising, polls for the office or key or surprising endorsements. Read more about Ballotpedia's methodology here.

The charts below reflect a month to month projection of outcomes of 2011 state executive elections by Ballotpedia.

(last updated November 2011)

2011 overview


Before election: 6

Projected after election: 6

Actual Results: 6


Before election: 7

Projected after election: 7

Actual Results: 7
6 Safe 7 Safe

(last updated November 2011)


Month Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
August 0 3 0 3 1 2 4
September 0 5 1 0 0 2 5
October 1* 4 1 0 0 2 5

*Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin won West Virginia's special gubernatorial election on October 4, 2011.


Gubernatorial elections, 2011

Three states, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi, had scheduled gubernatorial elections in the 2011 electoral cycle. A fourth state, West Virginia, held a special election on October 4, 2011 following a court order. In that election, acting governor, Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin, defeated 4 challengers and won the election to serve the remainder of Joe Manchin's unexpired term.

Incumbents in Kentucky (Democrat Steve Beshear) and Louisiana (Republican Bobby Jindal) retained their seats, while Mississippi's then-lieutenant governor, Phil Bryant, won election to succeed former governor Haley Barbour, who was prevented by term limits from seeking a third term in office.

Month Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
August - - - 2 - 2 -
September - 2 - - - 2 -
October 1* 1 - - - 2 -
Election results 2 - - - - - 2

*Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin won West Virginia's special gubernatorial election on October 4, 2011.

Lt. Governor

Lieutenant Governor elections, 2011

Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi held lieutenant gubernatorial elections in the 2011 electoral cycle.

Month Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
August - - - 1 - - 2
September - 1 - - - - 2
October - 1 - - - - 2
Election results 1 - - - - - 2

Attorney General

Attorney General elections, 2011

October saw a few major developments in the races for attorney general of Louisiana and Mississippi. In the former, Republican incumbent Buddy Caldwell cruised to an uncontested general election win after his only opponent, Joseph Cao, withdrew from the race. In the latter, Democrat Jim Hood and Republican Steve Simpson met in their first and potentially only debate-style event together, a joint press luncheon on October 3. Both candidates expressed support for a constitutional amendment outlawing abortion by defining "personhood" as beginning at conception. Simpson attempted to link his opponent, the only Democrat remaining in statewide office in Mississippi, to the policies of President Barack Obama. Simpson argued that Hood failed to oppose, and thus de facto supported, Obama's controversial health care reform bill. Hood refused Simpson's repeated requests for more formal debates but went on to win the general election.

In Kentucky, Democratic incumbent Jack Conway continued to fend off Republican Todd P'Pool, whose inability to improve on his 20-point deficit in the polls became increasingly dangerous as November approached. P'Pool, following the lead of Mississippi Republicans, attempted to link Conway to President Obama, but Conway's strong name recognition and his links with popular Democratic Governor Steve Beshear kept him ahead in the polls and on election day, when he won re-election.

Month Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
August - 2 - - - 1 -
September - 2 - - - - 1
October - 2 - - - - 1
Election results 2 - - - - - 1

Secretary of State

Secretary of State elections, 2011

There were few developments in the race for Kentucky Secretary of State toward the end of the election. Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes and Republican Bill Johnson met in a September 19 debate where they disagreed sharply over photo ID requirements for voter registration and voting rights for felons. Although one late August poll put Johnson as close as 3 points behind Grimes, she ended up defeating Johnson, keeping the seat in Democratic control.

The race for Louisiana Secretary of State was a two-man affair, with two Republicans - Tom Schedler, the incumbent, and state Senate President Jim Tucker - battling it out in the October 22 open primary. An October 2 poll found the two candidates in a virtual dead heat, with Tucker garnering 20% of the vote to Schedler's 19%, though a whopping 61% were still undecided. In the end, Schedler was able to fend off his challenger and hold onto his seat for another term.

In the Mississippi Secretary of State race, Republican incumbent Delbert Hosemann easily retained his seat against a lone challenger - Reform Party candidate John Luke Pannell.

Month Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
August - 1 - - - 1 1
September - - 1 - - - 2
October - - 1 - - - 2
Election results 1 - - - - - 2

See also