Robin Lais

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Robin Lais
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Lieutenant Governor of Kansas
Former Candidate
PartyRepublican
Elections and appointments
Last electionAugust 5, 2014
Term limitsN/A
Websites
Campaign website
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Robin Lais was a Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Kansas in the 2014 elections. Lais ran on a ticket with gubernatorial candidate Jennifer Winn.[1]

Elections

2014

See also: Kansas Lieutenant Gubernatorial election, 2014

Lais ran for election to the office of Lieutenant Governor of Kansas.[1][2] Lais and running mate Jennifer Winn lost in the August 5 Republican primary election to incumbents Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer. The general election takes place November 4, 2014.

Republican primary - August 5, 2014

Governor/Lieutenant Governor of Kansas, Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngSam Brownback/Jeff Colyer Incumbent 63.3% 164,319
Jennifer Winn/Robin Lais 36.7% 95,373
Total Votes 259,692
Election Results Via:Kansas Secretary of State. Vote totals above are unofficial and reflect 100% precincts reporting.

Race background

First term Republican Governor Sam Brownback is seeking re-election in 2014; re-teaming with his 2010 running mate and current Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer for the campaign.

On June 2, the filing window for Republican and Democratic candidates pursuing a place on the 2014 Kansas gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial ballot came to a close. One set of Republicans - led by landscape contractor Jennifer Winn - filed to take on the incumbent duo in the August 5 primary election. Meanwhile, Paul Davis, the state House Minority Leader, along with his running mate Jill Docking, were the only Democratic pair to enter the race, earning a free pass to the general election. Also joining the November lineup in advance of the primary election were Libertarian candidates Keen and Josh Umbehr. The father and son ticket knocked out a single set of opponents for their party's nomination at the Kansas Libertarian Party convention, which took place April 26, 2014.[3][4]

This contest is considered to be highly competitive; match-up polls and race ratings dating back to the fall of 2013 have continually underscored the legitimacy of Davis' threat to Brownback's chances of winning a second term in the 2014 general election. One of the first to declare Brownback's vulnerability was The Washington Post, which named Kansas as one of its top 15 gubernatorial races of 2014, citing Brownback's poor approval ratings as "well shy of 50%."[5] Indeed, Brownback's approval ratings had been hovering around 35% since January 2012.[6]

By July 2014, one month before the primary, Brownback's troubles crested when over 100 influential Republicans defected to Davis' side. The self-styled "Republicans for Kansas Values," comprised of GOP retirees and current officeholders, explained the unorthodox endorsement of Brownback's Democratic challenger was motivated by the governor's push for various steep cuts to education funding as well as tax cuts—resulting in a shortfall of $340 million in tax revenue for the 2014 fiscal year—despite fervent admonitions from the party's centrist contingent.[7] Rather than make it a partisan matter, the race "must be about electing a moderate, commonsense Kansan as governor," stated ex-state Senate president Dick Bond on behalf of the group.[8] Furthermore, the month of July brought the number of registered Republicans who say they would vote for Davis up to 29%, a five point increase from the previous month, according to successive SurveyUSA/KSN News polls, which also showed Brownback trailing Davis by six and eight points, respectively. A YouGov poll conducted contemporaneously over the internet was released soon thereafter and offered a starkly contrasting view of the race, giving Brownback a ten point lead over Davis, his biggest yet this cycle. Polling experts and representatives of each campaign commented on how the polls' differing methodologies can yield seemingly irreconcilable results. In this case, such disparities may cause many who follow the race to regard polls more skeptically as the election season progresses.[9]

Kansas is one of nine gubernatorial seats to be flagged as a toss-up or vulnerable for partisan switch in the 2014 cycle, based on polling data and projections courtesy of The Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Governing, among others, current as of September 2014.[10][11][12]


Polls

Governor of Kansas
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)OtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
CBS/NYT/YouGov (Without leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
47%37%3%2%+/--1,274
CBS/NYT/YouGov (With leaners)
July 5-24, 2014
52%40%3%2%+/--1,274
Rasmussen
August 6-7, 2014
41%51%3%5%+/-4.0750
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass (R-Brownback)
August 17-30, 2014
43%42%0%0%+/-4.3500
CBS/NYT/YouGov
August 18-September 2, 2014
47%40%2%11%+/-5.0839
Public Policy Polling (Umbehr supporters reallocated
September 11-14, 2014
39%45%0%15%+/-2.71,328
AVERAGES 44.83% 42.5% 1.83% 5.83% +/-2.67 994.17
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas
Poll Sam Brownback* (R) Paul Davis (D)Keen Umbehr(L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
June 19-23, 2014
41%47%5%7%+/-3.11,068
SurveyUSA/KSN News Poll
July 23, 2014
40%48%5%7%+/-2.91,208
Public Policy Polling
August 14-17, 2014
37%39%9%15%+/-3.3903
SurveyUSA/KSN-TV
September 4-7, 2014
40%47%5%7%+/-4.2555
Public Policy Polling
September 11-14, 2014
38%42%7%14%+/-2.71,328
AVERAGES 39.2% 44.6% 6.2% 10% +/-3.24 1,012.4
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Kansas
Poll Sam Brownback/Jeff Coyler (R) Paul Davis/Jill Docking (D)Third PartyUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA Poll
(October 23-24, 2013)
39%43%12%6%+/-4.4511
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

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References