Support declines for Prop 25, holds steady for marijuana

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September 27, 2010

A new survey from Field Poll shows that support for Proposition 25 has declined by 21 points from July. The poll of 599 likely voters was taken from September 14-21. Proposition 25 would reduce the threshold vote required in the California State Legislature to pass the state budget from a 2/3rds supermajority vote to a simple majority.

The bad news for Proposition 25 came as two of the state's leading newspapers urged their readers to pull the "no" lever for the union-backed measure. The San Diego Union-Tribune said, "According to the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office, while 'the measure states that its intent is not to change the existing two-thirds vote requirement regarding state taxes,' it allows the Legislature to use simple majority votes to pass bills that lawmakers decree are 'related to the budget in the budget bill.' Opponents say this is an intentional loophole opening the door to massive tax hikes. Backers say this is a phony issue. The LAO is in the middle, which should make taxpayers nervous."[1] The Sacramento Bee said, "...there are omissions and provisions in Proposition 25 that make this initiative difficult to support. Other states with majority- vote budgets have two-year budget cycles, rainy day funds and provisions that allow a governor to reduce spending when revenue drops. If Proposition 25 had truly been the product of bipartisan negotiations among reform-minded Californians, it would stand a better chance of passage, and put to rest concerns about this being purely a power play by Democrats and their union supporters.[2]

The same September 14-21 Field Poll showed support steady for Proposition 19, the Marijuana Legalization Initiative, although still less than the threshold required for approval. The Los Angeles Times joined a chorus of newspapers editorially opposing Proposition 19, saying, "Proposition 19 is poorly thought out, badly crafted and replete with loopholes and contradictions."[3]

Proposition 19 polling

Legend

     Position is ahead and at or over 50%     Position is ahead or tied, but under 50%

Date of Poll Pollster In favor Opposed Undecided Number polled
April 20, 2010 SurveyUSA 56% 42% 3% 500
May 9-16, 2010 PPIC 49% 48% 3% 2,003
June 22-July 5, 2010 Field 44% 48% 8% 1,005
July 23-25, 2010 PPP 52% 36% 12% 614
July 8-11, 2010 SurveyUSA 50% 40% 11% 614
Aug 31-Sept 1, 2010 SurveyUSA 47% 43% 10% 569
September 14-21, 2010 Field 49% 42% 9% 599
September 19-21, 2010 SurveyUSA 47% 42% 11% 610
September 19-26, 2010 PPIC 52% 41% 7% 2,004
October 2-4, 2010 Reuters/lpsos 43% 53% 3% 448
October 10-17, 2010 PPIC 44% 49% 7% 2,002
October 13-20, 2010 GQR/AV for LAT/USC 39% 51% 10% 922
October 14-26, 2010 Field for the Sacramento Bee 42% 49% 9% 1,501

Proposition 25 polling

Date of Poll Pollster Support Oppose Undecided Number polled
June 22-July 5, 2010 Field 65% 20% 15% 1,005
September 14-21, 2010 Field 46% 30% 24% 599
September 19-26, 2010 PPIC 48% 35% 17% 2,004
October 2-4, 2010 Reuters/lpsos 58% 29% 13% 600
October 10-17, 2010 PPIC 49% 34% 17% 2,002
October 14-26, 2010 Field for the Sacramento Bee 48% 31% 21% 1,501

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References