U.S. House battleground districts, 2014

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By Sarah Rosier and the Congress team

Voters remembered the government shutdown, the trouble surrounding the Healthcare.gov website and other issues as they headed to the polls during 2014’s midterm election cycle. From the beginning, tight races were shaping up. Some were truly competitive; others were incorrectly labeled as such. Why? “Battleground Districts” is a title that helps media pull in viewers and readers. It also boosts candidates’ fundraising efforts.

Every campaign cycle, Ballotpedia sifts through the noise and helps readers filter the hype. Leading up to election day, our list of Battleground Districts was based on real numbers and trends. And one trend in particular stood out: Incumbency is king and gerrymandering has left only a few handfuls of districts truly competitive.

In the first edition of Ballotpedia's battleground study, we sought to provides an unfiltered look at the races with the lowest likely margins of victory, as well as those moneymaking districts that raised lots of cash because they were mislabeled Battleground Districts.

See The 26 "Most Competitive Districts in 2014"
The purple districts on the Census district map were those found to be competitive in Ballotpedia's study.

Key terms

Margin of victory (MOV) Moneymaker districts
Margin of victory (MOV) is the measure of the winner's percentage of the vote won in an election (in this case, a House race) minus the runner-up candidate’s percentage of the vote. A district that is labeled as competitive prior to the election, but post-election analysis showed they were not competitive (MOV of 10 percentage points and higher). These districts, often because of the competitive label, raise more money for the campaigns than other districts.

Existing coverage

BallotpediaExclusives.png

In 2012, $3,664,141,430 was spent on congressional races, close to $1 billion more than on the presidential race. The average amount the winner of a House of Representatives election spent was $1,567,293. The average loser in a general election spent $688,632. This means that the average House race in 2012 cost general election candidates $2,128,629. However, these numbers skyrocket when a campaign is labeled competitive.[1]

The Cook Political Report, edited and published by Charlie Cook, is one of the most respected race rankings, and one we use as a data point for Ballotpedia. Cook classified 85 districts as competitive, or as having the possibility to become competitive, in their last projections before the election. Despite the high number of races that fell under these labels, only 30 races had a margin of victory (MOV) of less than five percent in 2012.[2]

Although Cook is used here as a barometer for outside battleground ratings, we could have easily applied this example to Sabato's Crystal Ball, FairVote Monopoly Politics or the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as seen in the final section of this report where we compare 2014 coverage.

Considering the amount of money spent and focus given to House elections, Ballotpedia desires to provide readers with an aggregation of third party rankings, previous election data and other relevant factors that will provide a more targeted and specific set of districts to watch for during the lead up to the 2014 election.

Below, a comparison is made to both the most expensive House races, the resulting MOV and also the final Cook projection compared to the MOVs.

Political spending versus results


Sarah Rosier interview with Grassroots TV about congressional competitiveness, published in May 2014.

Below are the most expensive House general elections in 2012, according to an OpenSecrets.org study:[3]

Most expensive races vs. margin of victory
Race Amount raised Amount spent 2012 MOV
Florida's 18th Congressional District $24,111,384 $22,951,644 0.6%
Ohio's 8th Congressional District** $22,024,288 $21,197,801 98.4%
Minnesota's 6th Congressional District $17,305,918 $14,225,615 0.8%
California's 33rd Congressional District $9,879,844 $10,645,394 8%
Virginia's 7th Congressional District** $8,448,263 $8,278,564 17%
California's 30th Congressional District $7,886,785 $11,944,794 20.6%
Colorado's 7th Congressional District $7,814,798 $7,820,465 13.5%
Illinois' 10th Congressional District $7,612,934 $7,572,654 1.2%
Illinois' 8th Congressional District $7,320,575 $7,203,706 9.4%
Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District** $7,260,389 $8,901,322 11.5%

**Two of these races were re-election bids by House Republican leadership, John Boehner and Eric Cantor, and one was former vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan's campaign for re-election.


This means that only three of the most expensive House races in 2012 were decided by a MOV of five percent or less.

Projections versus results

On November 5, 2012, the day before the 2012 general election, Cook released their final list of 85 competitive districts. The competitive districts were sorted by six categories: "Likely," "Lean" and "Toss Up" predictions for both Democratic and Republican gains.[4]

Of these competitive districts, 56 had an MOV of five percentage points or above. Of those 56, 29 districts would not have made a competitive MOV cut for Ballotpedia's study, with the winner having led the closest competitor by 10 or more percentage points in 2012. This means 34% of Cook's competitive districts were not actually competitive.

2012 moneymaker districts

What is a "moneymaker district?"

As previously stated, the average House general election cost candidates $2,128,629 in 2012.

What happens when a district that truly is not competitive is classified by the media as competitive?

The cost skyrockets. As outlined below, the 29 least competitive races in Cook's competitive ratings cost $101,370,857, which is a total of $39,640,616 more than 29 districts spending the average 2012 election price ($2,128,629) would have cost. In other words, each moneymaker race cost an average of $3,495,546, which is $1,366,917 more than the average 2012 race.

Why?

Media attention. When pundits, political organizations or analysts classify a district as competitive, other outlets begin adding that to the coverage of the race.

An example of this was seen in Maryland's 6th District.

The 6th District was heavily redistricted making a win for Rep. Roscoe Bartlett almost statistically impossible. The redistricting process changed the registered partisan breakdown by 59.69%. It left a 29.44% advantage for Democrats in party registration over Republicans.

Despite this, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), Cook and others still considered the election between Bartlett and Rep. John Delaney to be competitive as of April 2012. After April 2012, the district was still highlighted under their "Competitive Races" headline, but as a "Likely D" race. This attention led to an expensive campaign. Between Barlett and Delaney, the 6th District candidates spent $5,786,640. This was $3,658,011 more than an average 2012 House campaign.

In the end, Delaney won by an extremely comfortable, and non-competitive, MOV of 20.9 percentage points.

The true cost of moneymakers

  • Moneymaker districts: The 29 districts listed in this chart were considered competitive by Cook, but post-election analysis showed they were not competitive (MOV of 10 percentage points and higher).
Cost differential between the moneymaker districts and the average cost of a 2012 House campaign
Districts Party prior to elec. Cook PVI MOV Cost of 2012 election Difference from avg. cost
CA-47 Democratic Party D+5 D+13.2 $2,589,871 +$461,242
FL-09 Republican Party D+4 D+25 $4,782,973 +$2,654,344
IA-01 Democratic Party D+5 D+15.3 $3,738,165 +$1,609,536
IA-02 Democratic Party D+4 D+13.1 $2,512,269 +$383,640
MD-06 Republican Party D+2 D+20.9 $5,786,640 +$3,658,011
NY-25 Republican Party D+5 D+14.4 $3,917,121 +$1,788,492
CA-24 Republican Party D+3 D+10.2 $5,191,080 +$3,062,451
CA-41 Republican Party D+3 D+18 $2,788,415 +$659,786
CO-07 Democratic Party D+3 D+12.7 $7,820,466 +$5,691,837
FL-26 New district R+4 D+10.6 $1,778,880 -$349,749
CA-09 Democratic Party D+2 D+11.2 $5,691,934 +$3,563,305
RI-01 Democratic Party D+14 D+12.2 $3,893,267 +$1,764,638
IL-11 Republican Party D+5 D+17.2 $6,767,995 +$4,639,366
TN-04 Republican Party R+13 R+11.6 $1,967,129 -$161,500
CO-03 Republican Party R+4 R+12 $4,178,209 +$2,049,580
IN-08 Republican Party R+8 R+10.3 $2,368,687 +$240,058
PA-08 Republican Party D+1 R+13.2 $4,029,335 +$1,900,706
WI-07 Republican Party EVEN R+12.3 $3,881,665 +$1,753,036
AR-04 Democratic Party R+9 R+22.8 $2,192,907 +$64,278
CA-21 Republican Party R+3 R+15.6 $1,280,867 -$847,762
MT-AL Republican Party R+7 R+10.6 $3,012,612 +$883,983
NC-11 Democratic Party R+12 R+14.8 $1,818,838 -$309,791
NC-13 Democratic Party R+9 R+13.6 $1,691,856 -$436,773
ND-AL Republican Party R+10 R+13.2 $2,310,930 +$182,301
OH-07 Republican Party R+5 R+12.8 $2,253,069 +$124,440
OK-02 Democratic Party R+14 R+19 $2,882,044 +$753,415
PA-06 Republican Party R+1 R+14.2 $3,439,974 +$1,311,345
SD-AL Republican Party R+9 R+14.8 $3,667,781 +$1,539,152
WI-08 Republican Party R+2 R+11.9 $3,135,878 +$1,007,249
Total cost $101,370,857
Total difference between money maker district costs and 2012 average district cost $39,640,616

$39,640,616 better spent

Although many will argue that political spending in general is unnecessary, even just factoring in the excess cost of moneymaker districts is staggering. As shown above, the difference in cost between moneymaker districts and the average cost of a House elections in 2012 tops $39 million. Here's what $39 million could have bought!

*3,223 families of four could have been fed for a year.[5]
Glass of milk on tablecloth.jpg
*1,554 wells in Africa could have been built to service schools and medical clinics.[6]
Flickr - usaid.africa - Water pump provided by USAID (7).jpg

*A Boys & Girls Club in Whatcom County, WA, could have been funded for full-time operation for 66 years.[7]
Boysgirlsclub.jpg


*Educational costs for 1,350 DC Public Schools students would have been covered for a year.
Testtakingstudent.jpg


*Five of Robert Pattinson's Los Angeles homes could have been purchased, with enough left over to buy 43,600 copies of Twilight on DVD.[8]
Robert Pattinson May 2011.jpg

*Kayne West could have purchased 31 rings similar to Kim Kardashian's new bling.[9]
Diamond (PSF).png

Ballotpedia's five criteria for “most competitive”

A district must have met one or more of the following criteria:

1. If a district had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential, and incumbent years in office) and four were of the most competitive nature, purple, they automatically made the cut.

Nineteen districts fit in this category.

2. The district was considered competitive if it had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential and incumbent years in office) with three of the highlighted factors being most competitive (purple) and two being intermediate competitive (orange). The district must also have had a “special factor” (high outside spending, redistricting) to be added to the most competitive list.

Two districts fit into this category.

3. Anomalies: This included Republicans or Democrats in a district that otherwise trended heavily toward the other party. The district must also have had some other qualifying factor, such as an MOV of ten percent or less, an incumbent who had served less than ten years or a competitive 2014 candidate. Both Utah's 4th Congressional District and North Carolina's 7th Congressional District were examples of this before Reps. Jim Matheson and Mike McIntyre announced their retirements.

One district fits into this category.

4. Presidential differences: A district that may not have had all the categories highlighted, but voted for the other party in the most recent presidential election and the numbers were tight for the incumbent (redistricting was also factored in here).

One district was considered “Most Competitive” based only on this factor.

5. Recent effects of redistricting: This was relevant to three districts (IL-12, IL-13 and MN-08). Redistricting in the past three years caused these districts to be extremely tight and had the opportunity for a very close midterm election (the first midterm cycle these new districts will be going through).

Three districts were pushed into the most competitive list because of this, just missing meeting the other criteria listed above.


The 26 "Most Competitive Districts in 2014"

Color Key
Color Cook Partisan Voting Index Fairvote (Projected D%) Margin of Victory (MOV) 2012 Presidential MOV % % 2008 Presidential MOV % Incumbent years in office
Purple- most competitive Even; R or D 0-4 45.1% - 54.9% 0-4.9 0-4.9 0-4.9 0 - 4
Orange- very competitive R or D 5-7 42.1% - 45.0%; 55% - 57.9% 5.0-7.9 5.0-7.9 5.0-7.9 5 - 7
Green- competitive R or D 8-10 40.0% - 42.0%; 58% - 60% 8.0-10.00 8.0-10.00 8.0-10.00 8 - 10
House winners labeled this color indicate the party of the House winner being different from the party of the presidential winner of the district in 2012
Districts labeled this color indicate the districts that were pushed into most competitive based on heavily redrawn congressional districts
Most competitive districts for 2014 elections
Congressional district Battleground label Cook PVI Fairvote (Projected D%) Margin of Victory (MOV) in 2012 2012 Presidential MOV % 2008 Presidential MOV % Incumbent years in office 2012 House winner Campaign contributions difference Cost per vote for winner in 2012
Arizona's 1st Battleground D R+4 48% 3.6 -2.5 -3.2 0 Democratic 61.38% $19.13
Arizona's 2nd Battleground D R+3 50.9% 0.8 -1.5 -0.9 0 Democratic 65.57% $18.85
Arizona's 9th Battleground D R+1 51% 4.1 ✓4.5 ✓3.9 0 Democratic 64.44% $17.78
California's 7th Battleground D EVEN 51.4% 3.4 ✓4 ✓5 0 Democratic 57.34% $25.72
California's 21st Battleground R D+2 50.9% 15.5 ✓11.1 ✓6 0 Republican 91.39% $19.59
California's 36th Battleground D R+1 51.2% 5.9 ✓3.2 ✓3 0 Democratic 46.67% $17.94
California's 52nd Battleground D D+2 52.3% 2.4 ✓6.4 ✓12 0 Democratic 62.23% $28.93
Colorado's 6th Battleground R D+1 45.1% 2 ✓5.1 ✓8.7 4 Republican 66.81% $20.99
Florida's 18th Battleground D R+3 47.7% 0.6 -4.1 ✓3.1 0 Democratic 19.70% $28.58
Florida's 26th Battleground D R+1 53.1% 10.6 ✓6.7 -0.4 0 Democratic 69.59% $10.28
Illinois' 12th Battleground D EVEN 50.1% 8.9 ✓1.5 ✓11.1 0 Democratic 46.64% $7.52
Illinois' 13th Battleground R EVEN 47.2% 0.3 -0.3 ✓11 0 Republican 51.38% $10.22
Michigan's 1st Battleground R R+5 45.1% 0.5 -8.3 ✓1.3 2 Republican 59.74% $13.30
Minnesota's 8th Battleground D D+1 52.4% 8.9 ✓5.5 ✓8.6 0 Democratic 34.52% $6.52
Nevada's 3rd Battleground R EVEN 44.2% 7.5 ✓0.8 ✓8.9 2 Republican 61.24% $17.66
New Hampshire's 1st Battleground D R+1 50.4% 3.8 ✓1.6 ✓6.4 0 Democratic 47.47% $10.02
New Jersey's 2nd Battleground R D+1 40.2% 17.4 ✓8.1 ✓7.7 18 Republican 96.60% $9.40
New Jersey's 3rd Battleground R R+1 44.8% 8.9 ✓4.6 ✓3.4 2 Republican 66.17% $11.94
New York's 1st Battleground D R+2 51.3% 4.6 ✓0.5 ✓3 10 Democratic 54.54% $18.81
New York's 11th Battleground R R+2 46.1% 5 ✓4.3 -3 2 Republican 70.91% $21.96
New York's 18th Battleground D EVEN 51.5% 3.7 ✓4.3 ✓5 0 Democratic 40.94% $15.69
New York's 21st Battleground D EVEN 51.5% 1.9 ✓6.1 ✓5 4 Democratic 50.05% $15.54
New York's 23rd Battleground R R+3 45.6% 3.6 -1.2 ✓1 3 Republican 71.76% $15.31
Texas' 23rd Battleground D R+3 48.7% 4.8 -2.6 ✓1 0 Democratic 39.93% $18.65
Virginia's 2nd Battleground R R+2 43.4% 7.7 ✓1.5 ✓1.7 2 Republican 54.38% $14.42
West Virginia's 3rd Battleground D R+14 50.4% 7.1 -32.2 -13.4 20 Democratic 69.55% $13.26
  • Cook's PVI is Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index.[10]
  • FairVote's %D is FairVote.org's 2014 congressional election projections.[11]
According to our study, only 16 states had one or more competitive districts in 2014.
  • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

Will the battlegrounds change?

Ballotpedia's team carefully monitored all districts to see if a factor, such as an incumbent retiring, caused the district to become competitive. Barring large factors such as a retirement or death, our competitive list remained static. The changes were recorded below.

October 2013

Florida's 13th Congressional District

This district was not on our most competitive list until late October 2013. The late Rep. Bill Young consistently received high MOVs (15.1% points in 2012) and enjoyed a 42 year incumbency. However, with the announcement of his retirement and, subsequently, his passing, the race became competitive due to the recent presidential election results and the gradual change in make-up of the district.

June 2014 Removal

Although the special election that took place in early 2014 garnered national attention and only a slim margin of victory for current-Rep. David Jolly, when it came time for the candidacy filing deadline for the midterm elections, only Jolly and two third-party candidates filed. Without the possible rematch of Jolly versus Alex Sink (D), or another candidate with major-party backing, Ballotpedia no longer considered this a battleground race.

December 2013

Utah's 4th Congressional District

Utah's 4th District was considered by nearly all pundits and political enthusiasts as one of the most competitive races for the 2014 elections. However, when Rep. Jim Matheson announced his retirement on December 17, 2013, the district swung into safe Republican territory. Matheson, first elected to the House in 2000, won a razor thing re-election in 2012 (he won by 768 votes) and was facing a more and more Republican constituency (Mitt Romney won the district by an MOV of 37 percentage points).

Competitive-percent.jpg

January 2014

North Carolina's 7th Congressional District

Similar to Utah's 4th Congressional District, North Carolina's 7th District was considered one of the most competitive districts in the country. Rep. Mike McIntyre narrowly won re-election in 2012. Only 654 votes separated McIntyre from David Rouzer (R). McIntyre was facing a possible re-match against Rouzer in 2014 in a district that has become more conservative each year. His retirement at the end of this term all but guaranteed a Republican pick-up of the seat.

July 2014

California's 10th Congressional District and California's 52nd Congressional District

California's 10th Congressional District was removed from the battleground list, while California's 52nd District was added to take its place. Race ratings and FEC reports showed that the 10th District was not as competitive as it was originally predicted to be. It was instead likely to be won by Republican incumbent Jeff Denham.

On the other hand, the 52nd District was shaping up to be very competitive in 2014. The district appeared to have a very slight Democratic lean, but Republican candidates secured nearly 58 percent of the primary vote. This pointed to incumbent Scott Peters (D) facing a difficult re-election bid against challenger Carl DeMaio (R) in November.

How will this shape our coverage?

With a targeted focus of these 26 districts heading into 2014, the Ballotpedia team strived provide readers with comprehensive information on these elections, above and beyond our normal election coverage.

Beginning in January, Ballotpedia released one in-depth look at each competitive district every week.

However, for the 406 districts that did not receive a competitive label, the readers still saw the same coverage they expected from Ballotpedia.

Battleground badges

To quickly alert readers to the hot races of 2014, the Congress Project developed "battleground badges" that signified the races to pay attention to.

BattlegroundRace.jpg

If you saw this badge on a district page, it meant that you were on one of the 26 House races, or a particularly close Senate race, that Ballotpedia would be monitoring.

SimmeringRace.jpg
When you spotted this badge added by the Congress Project, it indicated that the race would be close, but the statistics illustrated that it would not be as close as a battleground race.

Our goals for this study

  • Ballotpedia hoped this study allowed you, as a reader and voter, to focus your resources (whether it be your time or your money) on the truly competitive districts.
  • We hoped that our readers would look past the hype and be able to quickly and effectively determine what districts were deserving of attention.

2014 results

State Before After
Incumbent Party Winner Winner Party District Party Change?
Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party No
Arizona's 2nd District Ron Barber Democratic Party Martha McSally Republican Party Yes
Arizona's 9th District Kyrsten Sinema Democratic Party Kyrsten Sinema Democratic Party No
California's 7th District Ami Bera Democratic Party Ami Bera Democratic Party No
California's 21st District David Valadao Republican Party David Valadao Republican Party No
California's 36th District Raul Ruiz Democratic Party Raul Ruiz Democratic Party No
California's 52nd District Scott Peters Democratic Party Scott Peters Democratic Party No
Colorado's 6th District Mike Coffman Republican Party Mike Coffman Republican Party No
Florida's 18th District Patrick Murphy Democratic Party Patrick Murphy Democratic Party No
Florida's 26th District Joe Garcia Democratic Party Carlos Curbelo Republican Party Yes
Illinois' 12th District William Enyart Democratic Party Mike Bost Republican Party Yes
Illinois' 13th District Rodney Davis Republican Party Rodney Davis Republican Party No
Michigan's 1st District Dan Benishek Republican Party Dan Benishek Republican Party No
Minnesota's 8th District Rick Nolan Democratic Party Rick Nolan Democratic Party No
Nevada's 3rd District Joe Heck Republican Party Joe Heck Republican Party No
New Hampshire's 1st District Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party Frank Guinta Republican Party Yes
New Jersey's 2nd District Frank LoBiondo Republican Party Frank LoBiondo Republican Party No
New Jersey's 3rd District Jon Runyan* Republican Party Tom MacArthur Republican Party No
New York's 1st District Tim Bishop Democratic Party Lee Zeldin Republican Party Yes
New York's 11th District Michael Grimm Republican Party Michael Grimm Republican Party No
New York's 18th District Sean Maloney Democratic Party Sean Maloney Democratic Party No
New York's 21st District Bill Owens* Democratic Party Elise Stefanik Republican Party Yes
New York's 23rd District Tom Reed Republican Party Tom Reed Republican Party No
Texas' 23rd District Pete Gallego Democratic Party Will Hurd Republican Party Yes
Virginia's 2nd District Scott Rigell Republican Party Scott Rigell Republican Party No
West Virginia's 3rd District Nick Rahall Democratic Party Evan Jenkins Republican Party Yes

"*" indicates that the incumbent retired in 2014.

Upsets

Non-battleground district upsets included:

District Before After
Incumbent Party Winner Winner Party
California's 31st District Gary Miller (Retired) Republican Party Pete Aguilar Democratic Party
Florida's 2nd District Steve Southerland Republican Party Gwen Graham Democratic Party
Georgia's 12th District John Barrow Democratic Party Rick Allen Republican Party
Illinois' 10th District Brad Schneider Democratic Party Robert J. Dold Republican Party
Iowa's 1st District Bruce Braley (Ran for Senate) Democratic Party Rod Blum Republican Party
Maine's 2nd District Mike Michaud (Ran for governor) Democratic Party Bruce Poliquin Republican Party
Nebraska's 2nd District Lee Terry Republican Party Brad Ashford Democratic Party
Nevada's 4th District Steven Horsford Democratic Party Cresent Hardy Republican Party
New York's 24th District Dan Maffei Democratic Party John Katko Republican Party

Expected seat changes

These are districts where a change in party was expected due to a very vulnerable incumbent. These races were not rated as battlegrounds because they were likely to flip control.

District Before After
Incumbent Party Winner Winner Party
North Carolina's 7th District Mike McIntyre (Retiring) Democratic Party David Rouzer Republican Party
Utah's 4th District Jim Matheson (Retiring) Democratic Party Mia Love Republican Party
West Virginia's 3rd District Nick Rahall Democratic Party Evan Jenkins Republican Party

Other initial 2014 predictions and targets

Cook Political Report

Cook Political Report had 76 districts labeled as competitive.

     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     D Tossup

     R Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- 2014 U.S. House Competitive Districts
Month Likely D Lean D D Tossup R Tossup Lean R Likely R Total D Total R Total Competitive races
August 8, 2013[12] 14 16 8 1 11 17 28 29 57
September 5, 2013[13] 14 15 9 1 11 17 38 29 67
October 21, 2013[14] 14 15 9 1 11 17 36 34 70
October 30, 2013[15] 12 15 10 2 16 16 37 34 71
December 18, 2013[16] 14 14 10 4 15 15 38 34 72
January 7, 2014[17] 14 15 10 4 16 16 39 36 75
January 15, 2014[18] 14 14 11 4 16 18 39 38 77
February 13, 2014[19] 14 13 11 4 16 18 38 38 76
March 13, 2014[20] 15 13 11 3 16 18 39 37 76
April 4, 2014[21] 15 13 11 3 17 19 39 39 78
June 26, 2014[22] 16 14 11 2 16 18 41 36 77
August 8, 2014[23] 15 13 13 3 9 17 41 29 70
September 19, 2014[24] 14 13 11 4 8 18 38 30 68
October 22, 2014[25] 11 14 13 5 6 15 38 26 64

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball projections labeled 66 races as competitive.

     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic
     D Tossup

     R Tossup
     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican

Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. House
Month Likely D Lean D D Tossup R Tossup Lean R Likely R Total D Total R Total Competitive races
October 23, 2013[26] 7 20 5 3 15 12 32 30 62
December 17, 2013[27] 8 19 5 6 14 14 32 34 66
January 7, 2014[28] 8 19 5 7 14 14 32 35 67
March 12, 2014[29] 10 15 7 5 14 15 32 34 66
March 31, 2014[30] 10 15 7 5 15 16 32 36 68
August 6, 2014[31] 9 13 10 3 11 16 32 30 62


FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2014

According to the 2014 national house election projections, there were:[32]

  • 201 Safe Republican districts
  • 18 Likely Republican districts
  • 21 Tossup districts
  • 15 Likely Democratic districts
  • 151 Safe Democratic districts

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

Between their Frontline Program, designed to help vulnerable incumbents win re-elections, and their Jumpstart Program, which provides early support to candidates in competitive districts, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted 42 races with their resources.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Frontline Program
District Incumbent
Arizona's 2nd District Ron Barber
Georgia's 12th District John Barrow
California's 7th District Ami Bera
New York's 1st District Tim Bishop
California's 26th District Julia Brownley
Illinois' 17th District Cheri Bustos
California's 24th District Lois Capps
Washington's 1st District Suzan DelBene
Illinois' 12th District Bill Enyart
Connecticut's 5th District Elizabeth Esty
Texas' 23rd District Pete Gallego
Florida's 26th District Joe Garcia
Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick
New Hampshire's 2nd District Ann McLane Kuster
New York's 18th District Sean Patrick Maloney
New York's 24th District Dan Maffei
Utah's 4th District Jim Matheson
North Carolina's 7th District Mike McIntyre
Florida's 18th District Patrick Murphy
New York's 21st District Bill Owens
California's 52nd District Scott Peters
California's 36th District Raul Ruiz
Illinois' 10th District Brad Schneider
New Hampshire's 1st District Carol Shea-Porter
Arizona's 9th District Kyrsten Sinema
Massachusetts' 6th District John Tierney
West Virginia's 3rd District Nick Rahall
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Jumpstart Program
District Challenger Incumbent
California's 10th District Michael Eggman Jeff Denham
California's 31st District Pete Aguilar Gary Miller
Colorado's 6th District Andrew Romanoff Mike Coffman
Florida's 2nd District Gwen Graham Steve Southerland
Illinois' 13th District Ann Callis Rodney Davis
Iowa's 3rd District Staci Appel Tom Latham
Michigan's 1st District Jerry Cannon Dan Benishek
Michigan's 7th District Pam Byrnes Tim Walberg
Montana's at-large District John Lewis Max Baucus
Nevada's 3rd District Erin Bilbray-Kohn Joe Heck
New Mexico's 2nd District Roxanne Lara Steve Pearce
New York's 11th District Domenic Recchia Michael Grimm
New York's 23rd District Martha Robertson Tom Reed
Ohio's 6th District Jennifer Garrison Bill Johnson
Pennsylvania's 8th District Kevin Strouse Michael Fitzpatrick
Virginia's 2nd District Suzanne Patrick Scott Rigell

National Republican Congressional Committee

The National Republican Congressional Committee's (NRCC) Patriot Program was the counterpart of the DCCC's Frontline Program and was designed to assist vulnerable incumbents in their re-election bids. The following table lists the members of the Patriot Program in 2014.

National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program
District Incumbent
Michigan's 1st District Dan Benishek
Colorado's 6th District Mike Coffman
Illinois' 13th District Rodney Davis
California's 10th District Jeff Denham
Pennsylvania's 8th District Michael G. Fitzpatrick
New York's 19th District Chris Gibson
New York's 11th District Mike Grimm
Nevada's 3rd District Joe Heck
Ohio's 6th District Bill Johnson
Florida's 13th District David Jolly
Ohio's 14th District David Joyce
New York's 23rd District Tom Reed
Virginia's 2nd District Scott Rigell
Florida's 2nd District Steve Southerland II
California's 21st District David G. Valadao
Michigan's 7th District Tim Walberg
Indiana's 2nd District Jackie Walorski
NRCC targets

The following Democratic incumbents were targeted by the NRCC in 2014.

National Republican Congressional Committee, Targeted incumbents
District Targeted incumbent November 4 Results
Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick Ann Kirkpatrick
Arizona's 2nd District Ron Barber Pending
Georgia's 12th District John Barrow Rick Allen
Minnesota's 7th District Collin Peterson Collin Peterson
North Carolina's 7th District Mike McIntyre David Rouzer
Utah's 4th District Jim Matheson Mia Love
West Virginia's 3rd District Nick Rahall Evan Jenkins

See also

References

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