United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2014

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2012

CongressLogo.png

Montana's At-Large Congressional District

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
June 3, 2014

District historyCandidates

Incumbent prior to election:
Steve Daines Republican Party
Steve Daines.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely R[1]

FairVote's Monopoly Politics: Safe R[2]
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely R[3]


Montana U.S. House Elections
At-Large district

2014 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Montana.png
The 2014 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Montana will take place on November 4, 2014. Voters will elect one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's At-Large Congressional District.

With incumbent Steve Daines (R) vying for a U.S. Senate seat instead of running for re-election to the House, Montana's At-Large District is left as an open seat in 2014. Open seats often lead to highly competitive races, but Montana has not had a Democratic U.S. Representative since 1997, and this election is expected to follow suit. The Cook Political Report rates Montana's U.S. House seat as "Likely Republican," meaning that it has only a small chance of becoming competitive.[4]

The November general election will be a race between Ryan Zinke (R), John Lewis (D) and Mike Fellows (L). Zinke reported $423,774.43 in cash on hand as of the April Quarterly Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports, whereas Lewis and Fellows had not reported any contributions at all. One early general election poll from November 2013 showed Zinke leading Lewis by only five percent, but 30 percent of voters were still undecided. In a debate between all three general election candidates on June 14, 2014, Lewis said that he wanted to raise the minimum wage, improve the Affordable Care Act and encourage development on renewable energy. Fellows focused primarily on smaller government, emphasizing a substantial decrease in spending. Meanwhile, Zinke characterized himself as a moderate Republican, saying, "If you’re on the far left, I’m just way too conservative for you. If you’re on the far right, I’m probably not conservative enough. But for Montana, I guess I’m just about right."[5]

In the June 3, 2014, primary election, Lewis easily defeated John Driscoll for the Democratic nomination. In contrast, Zinke faced a more competitive race against four other candidates. Corey Stapleton and Matt Rosendale each ended up with close to 30 percent of the vote.[6]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 10, 2014
June 3, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: Montana is one of 14 states that uses an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[7][8][9]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters had to register by May 6, 2014. However, if the deadline was missed, late registration was available at county election offices up until close of polls on election day. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 5, 2014 (30 days before election day).[10]

See also: Montana elections, 2014

Incumbent: The current representative, Steve Daines (R), who was first elected in 2012, is instead seeking election to the Senate in 2014.

Montana has a single at-large congressional district, which makes up the entire state.

Race background

In the 2012 election, Steve Daines secured election by a 10.5% margin of victory. In 2012, the incumbent, Denny Rehberg, chose not to run for re-election so that he could compete for the U.S. Senate seat up for election. As a result, Steve Daines and Kim Gillan ran against each other for the open seat. The district was listed in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[11] Steven Daines was able to outspend his opponent, spending $2,021,596, more than twice the $991,016 that Gillan spent.[12]

Zinke's military records

The Montana Democratic Party asked that Ryan Zinke release all of his military records from his service as a Navy SEAL. The records, some of which can be found here, highlighted Zinke's extensive awards, praise from superior officers and medical evaluations after injury.[13] The Democratic Party blamed Zinke for redacting key information, and asked specifically for Zinke to release any letters of reprimand that he had received. Zinke explained that at one point in his military career, he had used $211 of Navy money to buy a plane ticket in order to "scout out potential SEAL training sites in Montana," and he was later asked to pay the money back. However, Zinke said that the Navy never issued a letter of reprimand over the money, and he paid it back.[14]

Partisan breakdown

Heading into the November 4 election, the Republican Party holds the one congressional seat from Montana.

Members of the U.S. House from Montana -- Partisan Breakdown
Party As of October 2014 After the 2014 Election
     Democratic Party 0 Pending
     Republican Party 1 Pending
Total 1 1

Candidates

Candidate ballot accecss
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General election candidates


June 3, 2014, primary results

Republican Party Republican Primary

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian Primary

Declined to run


Primary results

U.S. House, Montana's At-Large District Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRyan Zinke 33.3% 43,766
Corey Stapleton 29.3% 38,591
Matt Rosendale 28.8% 37,965
Elsie Arntzen 6.8% 9,011
Drew Turiano 1.7% 2,290
Total Votes 131,623
Source: Montana Secretary of State - Official Primary Results
U.S. House, Montana's At-Large District Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Lewis 59.8% 42,588
John Driscoll 40.2% 28,580
Total Votes 71,168
Source: Montana Secretary of State - Official Primary Results

Polls

General election polls

General election candidates
Poll Ryan Zinke (R) John Lewis (D)Mike Fellows (L)UnsureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Montana State University-Billings[18]
(October 2014)
39.8%32.9%2.2%25%+/-5410
Human Events and Gravis Marketing
(July 20-22, 2014)
47%35%6%11%+/-4741
AVERAGES 43.4% 33.95% 4.1% 18% +/-4.5 575.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


John Lewis vs. Ryan Zinke
Poll John Lewis (D) Ryan Zinke (R)Not sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Vox Populi Polling
(August 3-4, 2014)
37%44%19%+/-3.5798
Public Policy Polling
(Nov. 15-17, 2014)
32%37%30%+/-3.2952
AVERAGES 34.5% 40.5% 24.5% +/-3.35 875
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Key votes

Government affairs

HR 676

See also: Boehner's lawsuit against the Obama administration

Yea3.png On July 30, 2014, the U.S. House approved a resolution 225 to 201 to sue President Barack Obama for exceeding his constitutional authority. Five Republicans--Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Paul Broun of Georgia, Scott Garrett of New Jersey, Walter Jones of North Carolina and Steve Stockman of Texas-- voted with Democrats against the lawsuit.[19] Daines joined the other 224 Republicans in favor of the lawsuit. All Democrats voted against the resolution.[20][21]

Campaign contributions

Steve Daines

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Daines' reports.[22]

Steve Daines (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[23]April 12, 2013$15,407.18$252,869.34$(77,952.52)$190,324.00
July Quarterly[24]July 15, 2013$190,324.00$430,922.42$(60,392.38)$560,854.04
October Quarterly[25]October 15, 2013$560,854.04$642,537.15$(64,600.10)$1,138,791.09
Year-End Quarterly[26]December 31, 2013$1,138,791$827,134$(271,846)$1,897,935
April Quarterly[27]April 15, 2014$1,897,935.17$1,215,460.20$(901,798.02)$2,211,597.35
Pre-Primary[28]May 19, 2014$2,211,597.35$512,327.71$(842,191.50)$1,881,733.56
July Quarterly[29]July 15, 2014$1,881,733.56$911,538.12$(1,065,472.52)$1,727,797.16
Running totals
$4,792,788.94$(3,284,253.04)

Matt Rosendale

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Rosendale's reports.[30]

Matt Rosendale (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
October Quarterly[31]November 1, 2013$0.00$320,899.95$(40,572.92)$280,327.03
Year-End[32]January 31, 2014$280,327.03$286,437.00$(133,820.65)$432,943.38
April Quarterly[33]April 15, 2014$432,943.38$34,504.00$(245,496.59)$221,950.79
Running totals
$641,840.95$(419,890.16)

Corey Stapleton

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Stapleton's reports.[34]

Corey Stapleton (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[35]April 12, 2013$0.00$140,151.27$(53,454.46)$86,696.81
July Quarterly[36]July 11, 2013$86,696.81$91,881.23$(101,409.98)$77,168.06
October Quarterly[37]November 4, 2013$77,168.06$67,751.27$(70,153.79)$74,765.54
Year-End[38]January 31, 2014$74,765.54$30,796.14$(48,125.47)$57,436.21
April Quarterly[39]April 15, 2014$57,436.21$43,231.38$(45,215.64)$55,451.95
Running totals
$373,811.29$(318,359.34)

Drew Turiano

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Turiano's reports.[40]

Drew Turiano (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[41]January 17, 2014$0.00$2,540.00$(1,717.40)$822.60
April Quarterly[42]April 7, 2014$822.60$4,300.00$(4,401.73)$720.87
Running totals
$6,840$(6,119.13)

Ryan Zinke

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Zinke's reports.[43]

Ryan Zinke (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[44]January 31, 2014$0.00$447,610.40$(102,714.91)$344,895.49
April Quarterly[45]April 15, 2014$344,895.49$460,260.12$(381,381.18)$423,774.43
Running totals
$907,870.52$(484,096.09)

District history

2012

On November 6, 2012, Steve Daines (R) won election to the United States House. He defeated Kim Gillan (D) and David Kaiser (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Montana, At-Large District General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Kim Gillan 42.7% 204,939
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSteve Daines 53.3% 255,468
     Libertarian David Kaiser 4% 19,333
Total Votes 479,740
Source: Montana Secretary of State "2012 Election Center"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Denny Rehberg won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Dennis McDonald (D) and Mike Fellows (Libertarian) in the general election.[46]

U.S. House, Montana At-Large District General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDenny Rehberg incumbent 60.4% 217,696
     Democratic Dennis McDonald 33.8% 121,954
     Libertarian Mike Fellows 5.7% 20,691
Total Votes 360,341

Media

Ryan Zinke


Ryan Zinke campaign ad[47]

See also

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for August 8, 2014," accessed August 25, 2014
  2. FairVote's Monopoly Politics, "2014 House Projections," accessed August 25, 2014
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed August 25, 2014
  4. The Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for June 26, 2014," accessed July 1, 2014
  5. Helena Independent Record, "Debate: Zinke, Lewis stake out talking points — but few shots at each other," accessed July 2, 2014
  6. Associated Press, "Montana - Summary Vote Results," accessed July 2, 2014
  7. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  8. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  9. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  10. Montana Secretary of State Website, "Montana Voter Information," accessed January 3, 2014
  11. DCCC "Red to Blue 2012," accessed May 17, 2013
  12. Open Secrets, "2012 Race: Montana District 01," accessed May 17, 2013
  13. The Billings Gazette, "Ryan Zinke documents," accessed August 12, 2014
  14. The Billings Gazette, "Zinke releases some Navy records on SEAL career; Dems seek more," accessed August 12, 2014
  15. Washington Post, "Former Baucus state director files paperwork for House race," accessed August 26, 2013
  16. USA Today, "EMILY's List president not running for Senate," accessed July 31, 2013
  17. The Hill, "Rehberg eyes bid for former House seat," accessed January 3, 2014
  18. Billings KTVQ, "MSUB poll shows Daines, Zinke leading races," accessed October 20, 2014
  19. U.S. House, "House Resolution 676," accessed July 30, 2014
  20. Yahoo News, "Suing Obama: GOP-led House gives the go-ahead," accessed July 30, 2014
  21. Washington Post, "House clears way for lawsuit against Obama," accessed July 30, 2014
  22. Federal Election Commission, "Daines 2014 Summary reports," accessed July 18, 2014
  23. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed July 18, 2013
  24. FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed July 18, 2013
  25. FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 24, 2013
  26. FEC, "Year-End Quarterly," accessed February 12, 2014
  27. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed May 16, 2014
  28. FEC, "Pre-Primary," accessed October 22, 2014
  29. FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed October 22, 2014
  30. Federal Election Commission, "Matt Rosendale Summary Report," accessed April 29, 2014
  31. Federal Election Commission, "Matt Rosendale October Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  32. Federal Election Commission, "Matt Rosendale Year-End," accessed April 29, 2014
  33. Federal Election Commission, "Matt Rosendale April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  34. Federal Election Commission, "Corey Stapleton Summary Report," accessed April 29, 2014
  35. Federal Election Commission, "Corey Stapleton April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  36. Federal Election Commission, "Corey Stapleton July Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  37. Federal Election Commission, "Corey Stapleton October Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  38. Federal Election Commission, "Corey Stapleton Year-End," accessed April 29, 2014
  39. Federal Election Commission, "Corey Stapleton April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  40. Federal Election Commission, "Drew Turiano Summary Report," accessed April 29, 2014
  41. Federal Election Commission, "Drew Turiano Year-End," accessed April 29, 2014
  42. Federal Election Commission, "Drew Turiano April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  43. Federal Election Commission, "Ryan Zinke Summary Report," accessed April 29, 2014
  44. Federal Election Commission, "Ryan Zinke Year-End," accessed April 29, 2014
  45. Federal Election Commission, "Ryan Zinke April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  46. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  47. YouTube, "The Right Conservative for Montana," accessed April 29, 2014