United States Senate elections in Michigan, 2012

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2012 U.S. Senate Elections in Michigan

CandidatesPollsElection History

November 6 Election Winner:
Debbie Stabenow Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Debbie Stabenow Democratic Party
Debbie Stabenow.jpg

Cook Political Report Race Rating
     Likely D (Prior to election)

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2012 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Michigan.png
Voters in Michigan elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.

Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) won re-election on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
May 15, 2012
August 7, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Michigan has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can vote in any party's primary.

Voter registration: Voters were required to register to vote in the primary by July 9. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9.[2]

See also: Michigan elections, 2012

Incumbent: The election filled the Class 1 Senate seat held by Debbie Stabenow (D). First elected in 2000, Stabenow won re-election in 2012.

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Pete Hoekstra
Libertarian Party Scotty Boman
Green Party Harley Mikkelson
Independent Richard Matkin (UST)
Independent John Litle (NLP)


August 7, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Note: The following candidates withdrew prior to the primary:[4] Chad Dewey[5], Scott Boman[6], Chuck Marino[7], and Rick Wilson[7] Peter Konetchy initially appeared on the official candidate list, but was later disqualified.[8]

Election results

General election

U.S. Senate, Michigan General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDebbie Stabenow Incumbent 58.8% 2,735,826
     Republican Pete Hoekstra 38% 1,767,386
     Libertarian Scotty Boman 1.8% 84,480
     Green Harley Mikkelson 0.6% 27,890
     UST Richard Matkin 0.6% 26,038
     NLP John Litle 0.2% 11,229
Total Votes 4,652,849
Source: Michigan Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Race background

Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2010 and won re-election in 2012. She ran unopposed in her party's primary on August 7th and defeated five challengers in the general election on November 6th: Republican primary victor Pete Hoekstra, and four third party challengers.

On June 4, 2012, MLive.com reported that Republican primary candidate Peter Konetchy apparently did not file enough valid signatures to earn a spot on the ballot. U.S. Senate candidates need to file at least 15,000 valid voter signatures, but Konetchy submitted only 16,676 signatures, according to state election officials. Konetchy said that he would fight the results, and said he was "still in the race." He, along with other intended candidates Chuck Marino, Rick Wilson, Scott Boman and Chad Dewey, were ultimately disqualified from the race and did not appear on the primary ballot.[9] Boman, however, was able to re-enter the race post-primary as a third party candidate. He appeared on the Libertarian ticket in the general election.

Competitiveness

The Wall Street Journal reported in late May that Republicans were feeling less sanguine about their electoral prospects in Michigan than they had been in the afterglow of the 2010 elections, when the Governor's mansion, the attorney general's seat and both chambers in the state legislature flipped from blue to red.[10]

Jack Lesenberry, a political commentator and professor at Wayne State University, told the Wall Street Journal, “Michigan has quietly disappeared. Hoekstra has yet to win over voters and Durant hasn’t made much headway yet.”[10]

Stabenow had a substantial lead in fundraising with $10.2 million collected in contributions as of March 31. Hoekstra raised $2.7 million during the same time period, with Mr. Durant collecting $1.9 million.[10]

Also according to the Journal, "there are signs that Michigan will be a tough challenge for the GOP. A poll released this week found President Barack Obama ahead of GOP presumptive nominee Mitt Romney 53% to 39%. Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow garners a similar level of approval, beating former Republican congressman Pete Hoekstra in some recent polls by double-digit margins."[10]

According to an updated analysis of the 2012 Senate elections published by the New York Times, the race for Michigan's Class 1 Senate seat was rated as leaning Democratic. The rating was reinforced by Stabenow's persisting, commanding lead in fundraising over major party challenger Hoekstra (R).[11]

Polls

Debbie Stabenow vs. Pete Hoekstra
Poll Debbie Stabenow Pete HoekstraNeitherDon't knowMargin of ErrorSample Size
(September 20, 2012)
53%37%3%7%+/-4.5500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Race rating

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations:[12]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Michigan Senate
Month Rating
November 1, 2012[13]     
October 4, 2012[14]     
September 13, 2012[15]     
August 21, 2012[16]     
July 12, 2012[17]     
May 31, 2012[18]     
May 10, 2012[19]     
March 22, 2012[20]     
March 1, 2012[21]     
January 26, 2012[22]     
December 22, 2011[23]     
December 1, 2011[24]     

Campaign donors

Debbie Stabenow

Debbie Stabenow (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[25]March 31, 2012$5,854,686.62$1,545,238.73$(419,786.17)$6,980,139.18
July Quarterly[26]June 30, 2012$6,980,139.18$1,491,411.01$(3,938,420.48)$4,533,129.71
Running totals
$3,036,649.74$(4,358,206.65)

Clark Durant

Clark Durant (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[27]March 31, 2012$1,154,315.03$557,776.27$(260,960.84)$1,451,130.46
July Quarterly[28]June 30, 2012$1,451,130.46$272,844.30$(302,191.63)$1,411,633.13
Running totals
$830,620.57$(563,152.47)

Gary Glenn

Gary Glenn (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[29]March 31, 2012$21,215.28$46,693.83$(46,470.43)$21,438.68
July Quarterly[30]June 30, 2012$21,438.68$42,082.69$(52,555.62)$10,965.75
Running totals
$88,776.52$(99,026.05)

Randy Hekman

Randy Hekman (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[31]March 31, 2012$23,300.03$27,608.29$(44,051.20)$6,857.12
July Quarterly[32]June 30, 2012$6,857.12$38,991.65$(33,731.49)$12,117.28
Running totals
$66,599.94$(77,782.69)

Peter Hoekstra

Pete Hoekstra (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[33]March 31, 2012$1,518,861.52$702,724.59$(681,073.54)$1,540,512.57
July Quarterly[34]June 30, 2012$1,540,512.57$735,255.71$(600,921.17)$1,674,847.11
Running totals
$1,437,980.3$(1,281,994.71)

Election history

2008

On November 4, 2008, Carl Levin won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Jack Hoogendyk, Jr. (R), Scotty Boman (L), Harley G. Mikkelson (G), Michael N. Nikitin (U.S. Taxpayers Party) and Doug Dern (Natural Law) in the general election.[35]

U.S. Senate General Election, Michigan, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngCarl Levin Incumbent 62.7% 3,038,386
     Republican Jack Hoogendyk, Jr. 33.8% 1,641,070
     Libertarian Scotty Boman 1.6% 76,347
     Green Harley G. Mikkelson 0.9% 43,440
     U.S. Taxpayers Party Michael N. Nikitin 0.6% 30,827
     Natural Law Doug Dern 0.4% 18,550
Total Votes 4,848,620

2006

On November 7, 2006, Debbie Stabenow won re-election to the United States Senate. She defeated Michael Bouchard (R), Leonard Schwartz (L), David Sole (G), W. Dennis FitzSimons (U.S. Taxpayers Party) and Bret McAtee (Write-In) in the general election.[36]

U.S. Senate General Election, Michigan, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDebbie Stabenow Incumbent 56.9% 2,151,278
     Republican Michael Bouchard 41.3% 1,559,597
     Libertarian Leonard Schwartz 0.7% 27,012
     Green David Sole 0.6% 23,890
     U.S. Taxpayers W. Dennis FitzSimons 0.5% 18,341
     Write-In Bret McAtee 0% 24
Total Votes 3,780,142

See also

External links

References

  1. ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
  2. Michigan Secretary of State, "2012 Registration Deadlines and Election Dates," accessed June 29, 2012
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 The Grand Rapids Press, "U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow beats Republican Pete Hoekstra by 10 points, says Dem-sponsored poll," accessed January 5, 2012
  4. Michigan Department of State, "Primary Candidate List," accessed May 17, 2012
  5. Chad Dewey campaign website, "My endorsement for the Michigan U.S. Senate race – Scotty Boman," accessed January 5, 2012
  6. Scotty Boman campaign website Accessed January 5, 2012
  7. 7.0 7.1 Central Michigan life, "CMU to host Republican U.S. Senate debate on Jan. 14," accessed January 5, 2012
  8. Michigan Secretary of State, "Candidate List," accessed July 6, 2012
  9. MLive.com, "U.S. Senate candidate might not make Michigan ballot" June 4, 2012
  10. 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 Wall Street Journal, "Tough Challenge for GOP in Michigan" May 31, 2012
  11. The New York Times, "2012 Elections Senate Ratings," accessed September 17, 2012
  12. Cook Political Report, "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011
  13. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 1, 2012
  14. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 4, 2012
  15. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," September 13, 2012
  16. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 21, 2012
  17. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
  18. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
  19. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
  20. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
  21. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
  22. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
  23. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 27, 2011
  24. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
  25. Federal Election Commission, "Debbie Stabenow April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  26. Federal Election Commission, "Debbie Stabenow July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  27. Federal Election Commission, "Clark Durant April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  28. Federal Election Commission, "Clark Durant July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  29. Federal Election Commission, "Gary Glenn April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  30. Federal Election Commission, "Gary Glenn July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  31. Federal Election Commission, "Randy Hekman April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  32. Federal Election Commission, "Randy Hekman July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  33. Federal Election Commission, "Pete Hoekstra April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  34. Federal Election Commission, "Pete Hoekstra July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  35. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008"
  36. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006"