United States Senate elections in Missouri, 2012

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2012 U.S. Senate Elections in Missouri

CandidatesPollsElection History

November 6 Election Winner:
Claire McCaskill Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Claire McCaskill Democratic Party
Claire McCaskill.jpg

Cook Political Report Race Rating
     Likely D (Prior to election)

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2012 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Missouri.png
Voters in Missouri elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.

Incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) won re-election on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 27, 2012
August 7, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Missouri has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can vote in any party's primary.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by July 11. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 10.[2]

See also: Missouri elections, 2012

Incumbent: The election will fill the Class 1 Senate seat, which is currently held by Claire McCaskill (D). First elected in 2006, McCaskill is running for re-election in 2012.

Candidates

Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.

General election candidates

Democratic Party Claire McCaskill Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Todd Akin
Libertarian Party Jonathan Dine


Democratic Party Democratic Candidate

Republican Party Republican Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian Candidate

Election results

U.S. Senate, Missouri, General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngClaire McCaskill Incumbent 54.8% 1,494,125
     Republican Todd Akin 39.1% 1,066,159
     Libertarian Jonathan Dine 6.1% 165,468
     Write-in Ted Kimzey 0% 15
     Write-in Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. 0% 9
     Write-in William Dean 0% 6
     Write-in Bernie Mowinksi 0% 5
     Write-in Charlie L. Bailey 0% 4
     Write-in Arnie C. "AC" Dienoff 0% 2
Total Votes 2,725,793
Source: Missouri Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Primary Results

Republican Primary

The primary took place on August 7, 2012.[10]

US Senate - Missouri Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Akin 36% 217,468
John G. Brunner 30% 180,821
Sarah Steelman 29.2% 176,189
Jerry Beck 1.6% 9,791
Hector Maldonado 1.2% 7,412
Robert (Bob) Poole 1% 6,097
Mark Memoly 0.5% 3,200
Mark Patrick Lodes 0.4% 2,282
Total Votes 603,260

Race rating

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations:[11]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Missouri Senate
Month Rating
November 1, 2012[12]     
October 4, 2012[13]     
September 13, 2012[14]     
August 21, 2012[15]     
July 12, 2012[16]     
May 31, 2012[17]     
May 10, 2012[18]     
March 22, 2012[19]     
March 1, 2012[20]     
January 26, 2012[21]     
December 22, 2011[22]     
December 1, 2011[23]     

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The University of Virginia's Center for Politics published an article called Sabato's Crystal Ball on March 22, 2012, detailing the eight races in the Senate in 2012 that will decide the political fate of which party will end up with control in 2013.[24] The seat rated a toss-up that the Sabato's Crystal Ball believes is 3rd most likely to end up Republican is the Senate seat in Missouri. The article notes incumbent freshman senator Claire McCaskill (D) is vulnerable in the Republican leaning state.[24] While it still remains a toss up as to who McCaskill's competitor will end up being in the general election, challengers U.S. Representative Todd Akin, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and businessman John Brunner all present a significant challenge to the vulnerable incumbent.

Race Background

On Sunday, August 19, Todd Akin made the following statement on a KTVI-TV, a local St. Louis station, "It seems to be, first of all, from what I understand from doctors, it’s really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down."

According to the New York Times, "Amid an uproar over provocative comments on rape and abortion that Mr. Akin made in an interview broadcast on Sunday, the National Republican Senatorial Committee declared that it would withdraw financial and organizational support for Mr. Akin, including $5 million in advertising already reserved for the fall. [...] At the same time, Republican candidates like Mitt Romney and Senator Scott P. Brown of Massachusetts either called for Mr. Akin to step aside or strongly indicated that he should. In a radio interview, the conservative host Sean Hannity pleaded with Mr. Akin to drop out. “Sometimes an election is bigger than one person,” he said. But Mr. Akin said on Monday that he would not drop out. “I’m not a quitter,” he said on Mike Huckabee’s radio program. “My belief is we’re going to take this thing forward, and by the grace of God, we’re going to win this race.”"[25]

Since then, many Republicans are looking for an alternative to Akin in the race. According to the Rasmussen poll, 13% of Republicans favor "some other candidate" while 7% are undecided. Libertarian candidate Jonathan Dine looks to these voters to potentially support him.[26]

Influence of PAC Spending

While independent conservative groups have already spent more than $3 million on television and radio ads in Missouri to unseat Claire McCaskill, the Washington Post reported in late April that McCaskill's response was unique, "McCaskill’s response has been an unconventional and risky strategy: She’s targeting the super PACs right back." The story elaborates, "Standard practice suggests that voters are rarely interested in arguments over campaign finances, particularly in the face of a tough economy and a political system awash in money on both sides. But McCaskill is betting she can turn the millions spent against her into an advantage, a sign of her political independence. She devoted her first campaign ad for re-election to the argument that out-of-state special interests are trying to knock her out of the Senate in November. “You make one company mad by casting a principled vote, and they say, ‘Okay, we’ll just gin up $10 million of our corporate money and take her out anonymously,’ ” she said. “I think if people figure out that’s what’s going on, they’re going to be very turned off by it.”"[27]

Polls

2012

Todd Akin vs. Claire McCaskill
Poll Todd Akin Claire McCaskillMargin of ErrorSample Size
Rasmussen Reports
(August 23, 2012)
38%48%+/-4.5500
Survey USA
(August 9-August 12, 2012)
51%40%+/-4.1585
Rasmussen Reports
(July 30, 2012)
47%44%+/-4.5500
Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon
(July 23-July 25, 2012)
49%44%+/-5625
Public Policy Polling
(May 24-May 27, 2012)
45%44%+/-4602
Post-Dispatch/News4/Kansas City Star poll
(October 23-25, 2012)
43%45%+/-4625
Kiley & Company
(October 26, 2012)
39%53%+/-3.5600
AVERAGES 44.57% 45.43% +/-4.23 576.71
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

In a SurveyUSA poll conducted during the second week of August, Todd Akin was leading incumbent Claire McCaskill by 11 percentage points.[28] In another poll published by Rasmussen Reports in late July, Akin led McCaskill by 3 percentage points at 47% to 44%.[29]

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Roy Blunt was elected to the United States Senate. He defeated Robin Carnahan (D), Jonathan Dine (Libertarian), and Jerry Beck (Constitution).[30]

United States Senate, Missouri General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRoy Blunt 54.2% 1,054,160
     Democratic Robin Carnahan 40.6% 789,736
     Libertarian Jonathan Dine 3% 58,663
     Constitution Jerry Beck 2.1% 41,309
Total Votes 1,943,868

2006

On November 7, 2006, Claire McCaskill was elected to the United States Senate. She defeated the incumbent James M. Talent (R), Frank Gilmour (Libertarian), Lydia Lewis (Progressive), and the write-in candidates.[31]

United States Senate Missouri General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngClaire McCaskill 49.6% 1,055,255
     Republican James M. Talent 47.3% 1,006,941
     Libertarian Frank Gilmour 2.2% 47,792
     Progressive Lydia Lewis 0.9% 18,383
     Write-in 0% 88
Total Votes 2,128,459

Campaign donors

Claire McCaskill

Claire McCaskill(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[32]March 31, 2012$4,802,500.74$2,298,462.60$(1,017,863.50)$6,083,099.84
Running totals
$2,298,462.6$(1,017,863.5)

Todd Akin

Todd Akin(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[33]March 31, 2012$1,158,197.04$416,580.75$(174,137.84)$1,400,639.95
Running totals
$416,580.75$(174,137.84)

John Brunner

John Brunner(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[34]March 31, 2012$209,248.51$1,375,066.12$(1,359,141.06)$225,173.57
Running totals
$1,375,066.12$(1,359,141.06)

Sarah Steelman

Sarah Steelman(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[35]March 31, 2012$572,986.90$178,707.26$(152,850.74)$598,843.42
Running totals
$178,707.26$(152,850.74)

Jerry Beck

Jerry Beck(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[36]March 31, 2012$0.00$250,000.00$(0.00)$250,000.00
Running totals
$250,000$(0)

Mark Memoly

Mark Memoly(2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[37]March 31, 2012$20.00$385.77$(380.77)$25.00
Running totals
$385.77$(380.77)

See also

References

  1. ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
  2. Missouri Secretary of State, "2012 Elections Calendar," accessed July 25, 2012
  3. Riverfront Times, "It's Already 2012 for Claire McCaskill: Attack ads circulating online and on the radio," accessed January 6, 2012
  4. The Hill, "Rep. Akin sets up a Republican primary fight in Missouri's Senate race," accessed January 6, 2012
  5. AP Results, "Missouri U.S. Senate Results" accessed August 7, 2012
  6. Roll Call, "Brunner Enters Missouri Senate Race," accessed January 6, 2012
  7. Huffington Post, "Sarah Steelman to Challenge Claire McCaskill for 2012 Senate Race," accessed January 6, 2012
  8. Mark Lodes campaign website Accessed January 6, 2012
  9. 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 Missouri Secretary of State, "Candidate Filing List" March 29, 2012
  10. Missouri Secretary of State, "Election Night Reporting" accessed October 11, 2012
  11. Cook Political Report, "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011
  12. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 1, 2012
  13. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 4, 2012
  14. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," September 13, 2012
  15. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 21, 2012
  16. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
  17. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
  18. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
  19. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
  20. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
  21. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
  22. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 27, 2011
  23. Cook Political Report, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
  24. 24.0 24.1 Center for Politics, "Tilting the Toss Ups – the Eight Races That Will Decide the Senate" accessed April 9, 2012
  25. New York Times, "Republicans decry Akin's rape remarks" August 22, 2012
  26. The New Republic, " Meet Jonathan Dine, the Libertarian Who Could Swing the McCaskill-Akin Race," September 10, 2012
  27. Washington Post, "Sen. Claire McCaskill takes fight to super PACs as Missouri swings farther right" April 24, 2012
  28. SurveyUSA " Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19479" accessed August 20, 2012
  29. Real Clear Politics, "Election 2012" August 15, 2012
  30. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"
  31. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006"
  32. Federal Election Commission, "Claire McCaskill April Quarterly," accessed July 2, 2012
  33. Federal Election Commission, "Todd Akin April Quarterly," accessed July 2, 2012
  34. Federal Election Commission, "John Brunner April Quarterly," accessed July 2, 2012
  35. Federal Election Commission, "Sarah Steelman April Quarterly," accessed July 17, 2012
  36. Federal Election Commission, "Jerry Beck April Quarterly," accessed July 17, 2012
  37. Federal Election Commission, "Mark Memoly April Quarterly," accessed July 17, 2012