United States Senate elections in New Hampshire, 2014

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2014 U.S. Senate Elections in New Hampshire

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
September 9, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Pending
Incumbent prior to election:
Jeanne Shaheen Democratic Party
Jeanne Shaheen.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean D[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely D[2]


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2014 U.S. House Elections

Flag of New Hampshire.png
Voters in New Hampshire will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 4, 2014.

New Hampshire's 2014 U.S. Senate election has been a competitive race between Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen and Republican nominee Scott Brown, although Shaheen has maintained a steady lead throughout the campaign.

Shaheen ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, and Brown won the Republican nomination by a wide margin of victory. There were 10 total candidates running in the Republican primary, but experts including Dante Scala, a political scientist from the University of New Hampshire, did not believe that any of the others had a serious chance of defeating Brown.[3]

Brown disappointed many of the more conservative voters when he said that he supported an assault weapons ban.[4] Nonetheless, he maintains the favor of many moderate Republican voters, and began emphasizing many conservative issues during the 2014 campaign season. For instance, he reversed his position on gun-free zones, and emphasized securing the border.[4] Although New Hampshire is far from the border, Seth McLaughlin, a journalist for the Washington Times, claimed that Brown was "looking to bolster his conservative credentials among Republicans still wary of him, and who call him a 'Republican in Name Only,' or RINO."[5]

Even after defeating nine candidates in the Republican primary, Brown may not pose a serious threat to Shaheen's seat. Shaheen has been consistently ahead in almost all of the general election polls, and as of the April Quarterly Federal Election Commission (FEC) report, Shaheen had $4,351,281.14 in cash on hand compared to Brown's $274,728.63. The Cook Political Report also rates this seat as leaning Democratic, which means that although the race is still somewhat competitive, the Democratic candidate will have an advantage.[6]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
June 13, 2014
September 9, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: New Hampshire is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary, but in order to do so, they have to choose a party before voting. This changes their status from unaffiliated to affiliated with that party, unless they fill out a card to return to undeclared status.[7]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters can register by either August 30, 2014, if registering with a town clerk, or on election day. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 25, 2014 (10 days before election).[8]

See also: New Hampshire elections, 2014

Incumbent: The election will fill the Senate seat currently held by Jeanne Shaheen (D). Shaheen was first elected in 2008.

Candidates

General election candidates


September 9, 2014, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Declined to run

Withdrew from race


Election results

Primary results

U.S. Senate, New Hampshire Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngScott Brown 50% 58,775
Jim Rubens 23.1% 27,089
Bob Smith 22.6% 26,593
Walter Kelly 1.2% 1,376
Bob Heghmann 0.7% 784
Andy Martin 0.6% 734
Mark Farnham 0.6% 733
Miroslaw Dziedzic 0.4% 508
Gerard Beloin 0.4% 492
Robert D'Arcy 0.3% 397
Total Votes 117,481
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State - Official Election Results

Race background

On March 14, 2014, Brown announced in a speech at a major GOP conference in New Hampshire the launch of his exploratory committee, which allowed him to hire staff and raise money for a Senate run.[21]

People's pledge

In a letter sent March 15, 2014, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) said she "very much admired the People's Pledge" that Scott Brown signed with Sen. Elizabeth Warren in 2012, and called on him to sign the same pact in New Hampshire.[22]

"I believe it limited the influence of outside groups and allowed the people's voices to be heard," Shaheen wrote.[22]

Brown did not comment on the likelihood of signing a similar pledge.[22]

"It's hard to view Jeanne Shaheen's actions as anything other than hypocritical and self-serving. The people of New Hampshire can see through the Washington-style game she is playing," Brown responded.[22]

Super PAC coordination

Election laws strictly regulate direct communication between campaigns and third-party groups, so when Republicans allegedly found "a sample script and ready-for-television images" posted online by Shaheen's campaign, they viewed it as a signal to third-party groups that they should put up an ad using certain language and images. Republicans brought the complaint to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), asking them to investigate all communication between Shaheen's campaign and both the Senate Majority PAC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).[23]

Campaign spending

Some experts are predicting that the 2014 New Hampshire Senate race will break records in campaign spending for a state of New Hampshire's size. Campaign finance expert Dante Scala stated, “It wouldn’t shock me if it topped $50 million.”[24] Given the campaign history of both Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen, this prediction would be consistent with spending in their past elections. Shaheen's 2008 Senate race was the eighth most expensive race in 2008.[25]. Scott Brown's 2012 Senate race in Massachusetts was the most expensive Senate race in history, with $82 million spent.[26]

Mayday Super PAC

"Mayday," a super PAC that aims "to help elect lawmakers of both parties who support proposals to diminish the influence of big donors," announced that they would spend $4 million in campaign advertisements for New Hampshire's 2014 U.S. Senate race.[27] However, rather than supporting either party's front-runner, Mayday said that they would be supporting Republican candidate and former state Senator Jim Rubens in his primary against Scott Brown. In response to criticism for trying to fight big money's influence in politics by spending large amounts of money, co-founder Lawrence Lessig simply stated, "Embrace the irony."[27]


Ending Spending Action Fund ad pulled from from WHDH

Ending Spending ad against Shaheen

In August 2014, Ending Spending Action Fund released an attack ad against Jeanne Shaheen entitled, "Cronyism." The ad claimed that, while the average New Hampshire citizen had struggled financially, "Shaheen's wealth has surged while in public office."[28] Shaheen's lawyers argued that the ad was inaccurate and demanded that the television broadcasting stations take it off the air. They stated that, in fact, Shaheen's net worth had decreased between $562,000 and $1 million while she had been in office. Ending Spending defended the ad by arguing that only Shaheen's assets should be included, and that debts, including 10 mortgages that she declared in 2013, should not be taken into account. One Boston television station, WHDH, an affiliate of NBC, stopped broadcasting the ad until it was re-cut. The president of Ending Spending stated, "That station has requested an additional citation be added to the on-screen text, which we will gladly do."[29]

Accusations of carpetbagging

Having moved to New Hampshire from Massachusetts less than three months before announcing his candidacy, Scott Brown was often accused of being a "carpetbagger."[30] In a news release on June 11, 2014, Brown referred to President Barack Obama being "in town" when he was actually in Worcester, Massachusetts. Some took this comment to imply that Brown still did not view New Hampshire as his primary home, although Brown's spokeswoman insisted that he was referring to New England as a whole.[31]

Brown later received more negative media attention for a similar comment that he made in a July interview for Boston Herald radio. During a discussion on the border crisis, Brown was accused of stating, "And that’s a big difference between Senator Shaheen and me and many other people in the Massachusetts delegation."[32] Later reports, however, said that Brown had actually said "your Massachusetts delegation," rather than "the Massachusetts delegation," because he was talking with an interviewer from Boston.[33]

Endorsements

Jeanne Shaheen

Shaheen has received the following endorsements:

Scott Brown

Brown has received the following endorsements:

Media

Scott Brown

  • On January 7, 2014, the Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, launched an attack ad claiming that Scott Brown was a friend of Wall Street and that "he's shopping for a Senate seat in New Hampshire." The group spent $160,000 to air the ad over a 10 day span. New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chair Jennifer Horn argued that the ad demonstrated that incumbent Rep. Jeanne Shaheen was "nervous" about her 2014 re-election bid.[38]
  • Brown released his first campaign ad in April 2014.[39]
  • Brown released another campaign ad in May 2014.[40]
  • The Senate Majority PAC released an ad in May 2014 attacking Brown for lobbying against an energy efficiency bill and for running immediately after moving to the district.[41]

Senate Majority PAC ad against Scott Brown

Scott Brown's first 2014 campaign ad

Scott Brown 2014 campaign ad

Senate Majority PAC ad attacking Scott Brown

NextGen Climate Action ad against Scott Brown

Jeanne Shaheen

  • Ending Spending, Inc., a nonprofit group associated with the Ending Spending Action Fund, released a campaign ad in December 2013 attacking incumbent Jeanne Shaheen for supporting the Affordable Care Act, or "Obamacare." The ad labeled Shaheen a liar for claiming that Obamacare would allow citizens to keep their insurance provider and increase choices.[43]
  • Shaheen released her first campaign ad on May 4, 2014.[44]
  • Shaheen released another campaign ad in May 2014, this time focusing on helping small businesses.[45]
  • Americans for Prosperity released an ad attacking Shaheen for supporting Obamacare, linking the healthcare law to a decrease in hospitals.[46]

Ending Spending ad against Jeanne Shaheen

Shaheen's first campaign ad

Shaheen ad released May 12, 2014

Americans for Prosperity ad attacking Shaheen

Polls

Republican primary polls

Republican primary candidates
Poll Scott Brown Jim RubensBob SmithKaren TestermanUndecidedDon’t Know / RefuseMargin of ErrorSample Size
Vox Populi Polling
(May 14-15, 2014)
38%9%13%8%28%4%+/-5.2707
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

General election polls

General election candidates
Poll Scott Brown (R) Jeanne Shaheen (D)Gardner Goldsmith (L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Opinion Strategies
(August 27-28, August 31 and September 1, 2014)
41%44%9%6%+/-4.38500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Scott Brown vs. Jeanne Shaheen
Poll Scott Brown (R) Jeanne Shaheen (D)Undecided/other candidateMargin of ErrorSample Size
American Research Group, Inc.
(September 27-29, 2014)
43%53%4%+/-4600
New England College
(September 19-20, 2014)
42.8%50.1%7.2%+/-2.541,494
Public Policy Polling
(September 18-19, 2014)
44%50%5%+/-3.8652
New England College
(September 10-11, 2014)
40.2%51.0%8.7%+/-3.98630
American Research Group, Inc.
(September 12-15, 2014)
45%50%5%+/-4.2544
Rasmussen Reports
(September 10-11, 2014)
42%48%10%+/-4750
Magellan Strategies BR
(September 10-11, 2014)
45.9%44.3%9.8%+/-2.02,214
AVERAGES 43.27% 49.49% 7.1% +/-3.5 983.43
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Scott Brown vs. Jeanne Shaheen
Poll Scott Brown (R) Jeanne Shaheen (D)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Kiley & Company
(September 9-11, 2014)
43%51%6%+/-4600
CNN/ORC International
(September 8-11, 2014)
48%48%4%+/-3.5735
Global Strategy Group
(September 10, 2014)
41%48%11%+/-3.11,027
Kiley & Company
(September 5, 2014)
42%50%8%+/-4602
Public Policy Polling
(August 27-28, 2014)[47]
44%50%6%+/-3.5766
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(August 7-17, 2014)
44%46%9%+/-4.0609
Magellan Strategies
(July 16-17, 2014)
41%46%13%+/-2.431,618
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(June 19-July 1, 2014)
38%50%12%+/-4.3509
Suffolk University
(June 14-18, 2014)[48]
39.38%49.38%8.75%+/-3.5800
Vox Populi Polling
(May 14-15, 2014)
35%47%13%+/-3.6707
Hickman Analytics, Inc.
(April 24-30, 2014)
43%49%8%+/-4.9400
Public Policy Polling
(April 7-8, 2014)
41%49%10%+/-3.11,034
Republican Governor's Association
(March 19-20, 2014)
49%44%8%+/-4.0600
Rasmussen Reports
(March 12-13, 2014)
41%50%5%+/-4.0750
American Research Group
(March 13-16, 2014)
38%50%12%+/-4.2533
AVERAGES 41.83% 48.49% 8.92% +/-3.74 752.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Jeanne Shaheen vs. Bob Smith
Poll Jeanne Shaheen Bob SmithDon’t Know / UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(August 7-17, 2014)
50%36%13%+/-4.0609
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(June 19-July 1, 2014)
57%34%9%+/-4.3509
Suffolk University
(June 14-18, 2014)[49]
51.00%31.00%14.25%+/-3.5800
Vox Populi Polling
(May 14-15, 2014)
45%34%21%+/-3.6707
AVERAGES 50.75% 33.75% 14.31% +/-3.85 656.25
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Jeanne Shaheen vs. Jim Rubens
Poll Jeanne Shaheen Jim RubensOther / UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(August 7-17, 2014)
49%35%15%+/-4.0609
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(June 19-July 1, 2014)
56%30%14%+/-4.3509
AVERAGES 52.5% 32.5% 14.5% +/-4.15 559
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign contributions

Candidate ballot accecss
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Jeanne Shaheen

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Shaheen's reports.[50]

Jeanne Shaheen (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[51]July 15, 2013$375,297.42$1,230,582.99$(202,453.37)$140,342.04
July Quarterly[52]July 15, 2013$140,342.04$1,221,094.73$(446,199.19)$2,178,322.58
October Quarterly[53]October 15, 2013$2,178,322.58$951,174.85$(333,443.10)$2,796,054.33
Year-End Quarterly[54]December 31, 2013$2,796,054$1,022,094$(471,444)$3,393,918
April Quarterly[55]April 15, 2014$3,393,918.91$1,538,363.20$(581,000.97)$4,351,281.14
Running totals
$5,963,309.77$(2,034,540.63)

Scott Brown

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Brown's reports.[56]

Scott Brown (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[57]April 15, 2014$0.00$274,728.63$(0.00)$274,728.63
Running totals
$274,728.63$(0)

Bob Smith

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Smith's reports.[58]

Bob Smith (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[59]January 27, 2014$0.00$30,476.69$(8,804.00)$21,672.69
April Quarterly[60]April 15, 2014$21,672.69$187,378.53$(110,581.40)$98,469.82
Running totals
$217,855.22$(119,385.4)

Karen Testerman

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Testerman's reports.[61]

Karen Testerman (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
October Quarterly[62]October 15, 2013$0.00$7,090.00$(7.00)$7,083.00
Year-End[63]January 31, 2014$7,083.00$23,960.07$(28,239.00)$2,804.07
April Quarterly[64]April 15, 2014$2,804.07$0.00$(2,804.07)$0.00
Running totals
$31,050.07$(31,050.07)

Jim Rubens

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Rubens' reports.[65]

Jim Rubens (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
October Quarterly[66]March 25, 2014$0.00$269,859.61$(7,687.33)$262,172.28
Year-End[67]January 29, 2014$262,172.28$18,545.00$(24,769.98)$255,947.30
April Quarterly[68]April 15, 2014$255,947.30$24,502.00$(49,544.18)$230,905.12
Running totals
$312,906.61$(82,001.49)

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Ayotte was elected to the United States Senate. She defeated Paul W. Hodes (D), Chris Booth (Independent) and Ken Blevens (Libertarian).[69]

U.S. Senate, New Hampshire General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngKelly Ayotte 60.1% 273,218
     Democratic Paul W. Hodes 36.8% 167,545
     Independent Chris Booth 2% 9,194
     Libertarian Ken Blevens 1% 4,753
Total Votes 454,710

2008

On November 4, 2008, Shaheen was elected to the United States Senate. She defeated incumbent John E. Sununu (R), Ken Blevens (Libertarian) and the write-in candidates.[70]

U.S. Senate, New Hampshire General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJeanne Shaheen 51.6% 358,438
     Republican John Sununu 45.3% 314,403
     Libertarian Ken Blevens 3.1% 21,516
     Write-ins 0.1% 430
Total Votes 694,787

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 Senate Race Ratings for August 22, 2014," accessed August 25, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 Senate Races," accessed August 25, 2014
  3. NECN, "Could Scott Brown get 'primaried out' of US Senate race?," accessed June 30, 2014
  4. 4.0 4.1 The Washington Post, "Scott Brown lurches to the right on guns," accessed August 20, 2014
  5. The Washington Times, "Scott Brown uses border fight in New Hampshire Senate push," accessed August 20, 2014
  6. The Cook Political Report, "2014 Senate Race Ratings for June 26, 2014," accessed June 30, 2014
  7. New Hampshire Secretary of State Website, "How to Register to Vote in New Hampshire," accessed January 3, 2014
  8. New Hampshire Secretary of State Website, "How to Register to Vote in New Hampshire," accessed January 3, 2014
  9. Gardner Goldsmith for US Senate, "Home," accessed May 23, 2014
  10. 10.0 10.1 Politico, "Ex-Sen. Bob Smith to seek his old New Hampshire seat", accessed December 2, 2013
  11. Washington Post, "Scott Brown is officially running for Senate in New Hampshire," accessed April 2, 2014
  12. Bloomberg, "Brown’s Move to New Hampshire Fuels Talk of Senate Race," accessed March 18, 2014
  13. Union Leader, "John DiStaso's Granite Status: Political comeback? Republican Charlie Bass considering 2014 Senate run against Jeanne Shaheen ", accessed September 6, 2013
  14. Sentinel Source, "Senate candidate Jim Rubens stops in Keene and Surry, talks issues," accessed May 8, 2014
  15. Andy Martin for U.S. Senator, "Welcome," accessed May 8, 2014
  16. 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 New Hampshire Secretary of State, "2014 Filing Period," accessed June 23, 2014
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  18. Politico, "Charlie Bass won’t challenge Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire", accessed November 4, 2013
  19. Concord Monitor, "N.H. Republican activist Karen Testerman to run for U.S. Senate in 2014," accessed May 8, 2014
  20. Insurance News Net, "Testerman withdraws from GOP primary to back Smith for Senate," accessed June 23, 2014
  21. WSBT, "Scott Brown moves closer to Senate run in N.H.," accessed March 17, 2014
  22. 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 The Republic, "Shaheen asks Brown to agree to limit outside cash in Senate race; Brown calls her hypocritical," accessed March 18, 2014
  23. WMUR, "NHGOP seeks FEC investigation on Shaheen and Super PAC coordination," accessed May 8, 2014
  24. Boston Herald, "Scott Brown-Jeanne Shaheen N.H. race costs may set record," accessed May 8, 2014
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  26. The Washington Post, "The most expensive Senate races ever — and where Kentucky might fit in," accessed May 8, 2014
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  31. The Washington Post, "Which town is Brown’s town?," accessed June 30, 2014
  32. The Washington Post, "Brown, repeat to yourself three times ‘New Hampshire, New Hampshire, New Hampshire’," accessed July 17, 2014
  33. The Washington Post, "Brown campaign: Massachusetts gaffe was not a gaffe," accessed July 17, 2014
  34. Roll Call, "Angus King Rolls Out Bipartisan Senate Endorsements," accessed May 19, 2014
  35. 35.0 35.1 Boston Herald, "Angus King backs Senate colleague Jeanne Shaheen," accessed May 19, 2014
  36. Boston Herald, "Mitt Romney to endorse Scott Brown in N.H. Senate race," accessed June 30, 2014
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  38. The Washington Post, "Senate Majority PAC launches ad hitting Scott Brown" January 8, 2014
  39. YouTube, "Scott Brown: Listening And Learning," accessed May 8, 2014
  40. YouTube, "Scott Brown: For New Hampshire," accessed May 28, 2014
  41. Roll Call, "Senate Majority PAC Ad Hits Brown on Energy Bill," accessed May 28, 2014
  42. YouTube, " 'Tap' - New Hampshire," accessed August 25, 2014
  43. YouTube, "Like Your Senator," accessed May 8, 2014
  44. Boston.com, "Shaheen Releases First Ad in New Hampshire Senate Race," accessed May 8, 2014
  45. YouTube, "Steel," accessed May 16, 2014
  46. YouTube, "Tell Sen. Shaheen: We Want Our Hospitals Back," accessed June 12, 2014
  47. Huffington Post, "2014 New Hampshire Senate Poll," accessed September 2, 2014
  48. Suffolk University News, "NH Poll Shows Shaheen Leading Brown by 10 Points in Senate Race," accessed June 24, 2014
  49. Suffolk University News, "NH Poll Shows Shaheen Leading Brown by 10 Points in Senate Race," accessed June 24, 2014
  50. Federal Election Commission, "Shaheen 2014 Summary reports," accessed August 1, 2013
  51. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2013
  52. FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2013
  53. FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 30, 2013
  54. FEC, "Year-End Quarterly," accessed February 13, 2014
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  61. Federal Election Commission, "Karen Testerman Summary Report," accessed May 8, 2014
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  65. Federal Election Commission, "Jim Rubens Summary Report," accessed May 8, 2014
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  69. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  70. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013