Wisconsin Gubernatorial election, 2014

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Wisconsin Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
August 12, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Incumbent prior to election:
Scott Walker Republican Party
Scott Walker 2.jpg

Wisconsin State Executive Elections
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GovernorLt. GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Treasurer

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The Wisconsin Gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Scott Walker (R) is running for re-election to his second term in office. Wisconsin has no gubernatorial term limits. The winner of the election will serve a 4-year term in office. Currently, the filing deadlines have passed and the next step in the election is the partisan primary on August 12.

This is incumbent Governor Walker's third election in four years: he first won in the 2010 elections and he faced a high-profile recall election in 2012. Walker, a Republican, defeated the same Democratic opponent, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, by a similar margin in both elections. Walker is the only governor to have survived a recall and only the third governor to face a recall election in US history.[1] Walker is considered to be a potential Republican candidate for president in 2016 and the outcome of this race could have significant effects on his potential candidacy.[2]

His main opponent is Democrat Mary Burke. There are two third-party candidates: Libertarian Robert Burke and Peoples Party candidate Dennis Fehr. Polling indicates that this race is likely to be close and the outcome will hinge on which candidate can get more of their supporters to turn out, just as in Walker's two previous gubernatorial elections.

The gubernatorial race is not the only race on the November ballot that could shift the balance of power in Wisconsin. The Wisconsin State Senate has been identified by Ballotpedia as one of the top 20 legislative chambers to watch in 2014. The chamber and the governor's office could be held by the opposition party, either of which would result in the loss of Wisconsin's state government trifecta. Learn more about the state's most competitive legislative races on the battleground chambers page.

Wisconsin is one of 14 states that uses an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[3][4][5]

Candidates

General election candidates

Lost in primary

Withdrew or failed to qualify

Declined

Key deadlines

Deadline Event
June 2 Filing deadline
August 12 Primary election
November 4 General election

Primary results

  • Democratic primary
Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMary Burke 83.3% 259,383
Brett Hulsey 16.7% 52,020
Total Votes 311,403
Election Results Via:Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Primary Election Results.
  • Republican primary

Incumbent Republican Scott Walker was opposed only by a write-in candidate and news outlets did not report the result.

Race background

This is incumbent Governor Scott Walker's third election in four years: he first won in the 2010 elections and he faced a high-profile recall election in 2012. Walker, a Republican, defeated the same Democratic opponent, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, by a similar margin in both elections. This year, Walker's main Democratic challenger is Mary Burke, a former business executive and current member of the school board in Madison, Wisconsin.

2012 recall

See also: Scott Walker recall, Wisconsin (2012)

Democrats targeted Walker for recall due to his efforts to limit the collective bargaining rights of public employee unions through Wisconsin Assembly Bill 11, the "Scott Walker Budget Repair Bill", which the governor introduced in February 2011. The bill was immediately met with wide-scale protests. While the passions of the 2012 recall and of the 2010 election, an election that saw Republicans win control of the House of Representatives and many other offices across the country, may not be as strong this year, the underlying issues still exist and Governor Walker remains a divisive figure.[17] Walker is the only governor to have survived a recall and only the third governor to face a recall election in US history.[18]

Common Core

See also: Common Core State Standards Initiative

In addition to the ongoing issues that fueled the protests and subsequent failed recall, the issue of Common Core has recently surfaced in this race. Walker, a former supporter of the education standards, has recently begun to back away from his stance and has sought to change how Common Core is implemented in Wisconsin.[19] Burke publicly supports Common Core.[20]

State of the race

Polling as of July 2014 indicates that this will be a close race with few undecided voters, driven by the highly charged political atmosphere and almost continuous campaigning caused by the recall. The race is likely to hinge on which candidate is better able to motivate their voters to go to the polls, rather than appealing to the few voters still undecided. As of July 2014, The Cook Political Report rated this race as a Tossup.[21]

Another factor in the race may be the two third-party candidates: Libertarian Robert Burke and Peoples Party candidate Dennis Fehr. Neither candidate has shown strong polling, but even a small number of votes can make a difference in a tight race. Robert Burke, a "socially liberal" former Republican, has said that he "...can mess things up for both sides."[22][23][24] Fehr is the founder and sole candidate of the Peoples Party, not to be confused with the People's Party.[25]

Both Walker and Mary Burke faced primary challengers but won comfortably for their respective parties' nominations. Walker's only opponent, Steve Evans, ran as a write-in candidate, while Burke was endorsed by the Wisconsin Democratic Party's Administrative Committee over her opponent, State Assemblyman Brett Hulsey.[26]


Polls

Governor of Wisconsin
Poll Scott Walker (R) Mary Burke (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Marquette University Law School Poll
October 21-24, 2013
47.1%44.9%6.5%+/-3.5800
Rasmussen Reports
March 10-11, 2014
45%45%10%+/-4.5500
Marquette University Law School Poll
March 20-23, 2014
48%41%11%+/-3.5801
St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute
March 24 - April 3, 2014
55%40%5%+/-5401
Magellan Strategies for the Liberty Foundation of America
April 14-15,2014
47%47%6%+/-3.36851
Public Policy Polling
April 17-20, 2014
48%45%7%+/-2.91,144
Marquette University Law School Poll
May 15-18, 2014
46%46%6%+/-3.5805
Marquette University Law School Poll
July 17-20, 2014
46%45%9%+/-3.5804
Gravis Marketing
July 31-August 3, 2014
47%47%6%+/-31,346
AVERAGES 47.68% 44.54% 7.39% +/-3.64 828
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


See also

External links

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Candidate Websites

References

  1. The Guardian, "Wisconsin governor Scott Walker survives bitterly fought recall election," June 6, 2012
  2. Politico, "Scott Walker opens up about White House ambitions," March 16, 2013
  3. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  4. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  5. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  6. 6.0 6.1 FOX 6 Now, "Looking ahead to 2014, who will face Scott Walker in race for Gov.?," July 21, 2013
  7. 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Candidates Registered by Office," February 17, 2014
  8. Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "CERTIFICATE OF NOMINATION FOR GENERAL ELECTION," accessed July 4, 2014
  9. Email communication with Ballotpedia, September 8, 2014
  10. Fond du Lac Reporter, "State board approves Rep. Brett Hulsey gubernatorial candidacy," June 10, 2014
  11. Senator Kathleen Vinehout, "Senator Vinehout Statement on Not Running for Governor This Year," January 23, 2014
  12. Facebook, "Peter Barca for Governor," accessed January 10, 2013
  13. Channel 3000, "U.S. Rep. Ron Kind says no run for governor," June 7, 2015
  14. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Democratic Winnebago county executive could decide by Labor Day whether to run for governor," July 22, 2013
  15. Milwaukee Journal Sentinal, "Winnebago County Exec Mark Harris declines run for governor," August 30, 2013
  16. WTAQ, "Milwaukee County exec Abele not interested in running for governor," February 28, 2013
  17. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Race tightens, with Scott Walker, Mary Burke tied among registered voters," May 21, 2014
  18. The Guardian, "Wisconsin governor Scott Walker survives bitterly fought recall election," June 6, 2012
  19. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Gov. Scott Walker calls for Legislature to repeal Common Core standards," July 17, 2014
  20. WKOW Madison, "Burke supports sticking with Common Core in WI," July 19, 2014
  21. The Cook Political Report, "2014 GOVERNORS RACE RATINGS FOR JULY 30, 2014," accessed July 31, 2014
  22. Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "Two Burkes on ballot for governor," July 11, 2014
  23. The Cap Times, "John Nichols: Libertarians give Wisconsin another option," July 1, 2014
  24. Wausau Daily Herald, "Letter: More than two are running for governor," July 16, 2014
  25. Dennis Fehr for Governor, "About our Candidate," accessed July 31, 2014
  26. Democratic Party of Wisconsin, "Candidates," accessed July 31, 2014