2011 gubernatorial race trackers

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See also: Ballotpedia's predictions for 2011

The Cook Political Report

The Washington D.C. based Cook Political Report is a nonpartisan political reporting service affiliated with the National Journal. It tracks and rates races for governors' seats in addition to U.S. House and Senate seats.

According to the site, it analyzes the vulnerability of a sitting governor or of the party in power as follows:

Solid: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested.
Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss Up: These are the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning.

Cook published initial race ratings in December 2010 for both the 2011 and 2012 cycles. Ratings are revisited and revised periodically.

Month Solid D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Solid R
January 20, 2011 Ratings[1] 0 0 2 0 0 1 1
December 2010 Initial Ratings[2] 0 0 2 0 0 1 1

Governing Politics

Governing Politics is an online magazine dedicated to covering state level political and policy news. It is largely written for professionals and is based out of Washington D.C.

The magazine interviews a total of nine political analysts and consider political trends, recent election returns, and the national mood in ranking races.

Gubernatorial races are categorized into one of seven categories are are, across those rankings, individually rank-ordered as to the likelihood of the state being GOP held (#1) to Democratically held. Because the races held in 2011 and 2012 are being ranked as one overall cycle, the current rankings goes from 1 to 14.

Within that system, the 2011 races earned the following initial ranking as being most likely to end in Republican hands:
Mississippi: #2
Louisiana: #3
Kentucky: #8
West Virginia: #9
Month Solid Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic Tossup Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican
December 2010 Initial Ratings[3] 0 0 0 2 0 0 2

Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball

Larry J. Sabato is an Arlington, Virginia based political commentator and a published author. His website is run through the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The "Crystal Ball" has forecast gubernatorial, House, and Senate races since its 2004 founding.

Month Safe Democrat Likely Democrat Leans Democrat Toss-up Leans Independent Leans Republican Likely Republican Safe Republican
April 8, 2011 Rankings[4] 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1
March 10, 2011 Rankings[5] 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1
January 13, 2011 Initial Rankings[6] 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1

The Rothenberg Political Report

The Rothenberg Political Report is a Washington D.C. based political newsletter, covering Governors, the House and Senate, and Presidential races from a nonpartisan stance.

It is run by Stuart Rothenberg, a political commentator and columnist for Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call.

Month Safe D D Favored Lean D Toss-up Leaning D Pure Toss-up Lean I Toss-up Leaning R Lean R R Favored Safe R
April 11, 2011[7] 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1
March 11, 2011[8] 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1
January 3, 2011[9]* 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1
  • West Virginia was not included in January as the special election had not been ordered.

See also