2012 competitiveness in Arkansas state legislative elections

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June 29, 2012


By Geoff Pallay

MADISON, Wisconsin: Arkansas's legislative elections in 2012 are less competitive than most of the country, based on Ballotpedia's Competitiveness index which captures the extent of electoral competitiveness exhibited in state legislative elections.

About the Competitiveness index:
The Ballotpedia state legislative competitive index looks at three factors: is the incumbent running for re-election in a district; if so, does he or she draw a primary challenge; and are there two major party candidates in the general election.

Ballotpedia's index is created by summing the three percentages and then dividing by three. Each state is given 1 point for each percentage. Then, the points are added up and divided by three to establish the index rating. 1 is least competitive and 100 equals most competitive.

The comprehensive 2012 state legislative competitive index will be released following the completion of the primaries in all 44 states with 2012 state legislative elections. It will examine all 6,015 state legislative seats that are up for election on November 6, 2012.

Once a state releases official primary candidate lists, Ballotpedia staff analyzes the data to determine primary competitiveness. All 44 states holding 2012 state legislative elections have been analyzed by Ballotpedia.

Arkansas in 2012:
Arkansas's filing deadline was on March 1, 2012. It was the 8th state to be analyzed by Ballotpedia staff and the inclusion of its data brought the national index to 32.22 in 2012.

In Arkansas, there are 135 total state legislative seats with elections in 2012 and nearly two-thirds of current incumbents are seeking re-election.

Of those 135, 35 are State Senate seats and 100 are State House seats. A total of 88 incumbents (65.19%) are seeking re-election this year. Just 14 (15.91%) incumbents running for re-election face primary opposition. Additionally, there are 47 (34.81%) districts where an incumbent did not seek re-election within that district. For November's general elections, there will be 63 (46.67%) seats where two major party candidates will appear on the ballot.

Nationwide Index
The current nationwide index is 36.90
• 44 states analyzed •
(updated August 23, 2012)

Comparison to 2010:
In 2010, Arkansas ranked 33rd in overall competitiveness.

  • 45.3% of Districts were open seats, higher than 2012's 34.81%.
  • 6.25% of incumbents faced primary opposition, increasing to 15.91% in 2012.
  • 33.33% of Districts had two major party candidates in the general election, compared to 46.67% in 2012.
  • Arkansas's 2010 competitiveness index was 28.3, compared to 32.46 in 2012.

See also

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