Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 2, 2012

2013 → ← 2011
2012 State Legislative Elections
Table of Contents
Redistricting • Partisan Control • Primaries • Impact of Term Limits • Competitiveness Analysis
States
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan• Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Other 2012 Election coverage
Primary elections • Statewide elections, 2012 • State legislative special elections, 2012 • State Senate elections • State House elections • State executive official elections, 2012 • 2012 ballot measures

6,013 seats of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats were up for election in the November 6, 2012 state legislative elections.

This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2012's state legislative elections. The analysis utilized this 3-factor "Competitiveness Index". This report is organized into four sections. They are:

• Competitiveness overview
• Open seats
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Major party competition

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
• Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
• Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2012 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections

State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2012
	2010	2012	AVERAGE
Competitiveness Index	34.6	35.2	34.9
Open seats	18.7%	21.9%	20.3%
Inc. in contested primaries	20.0%	23.3%	21.7%
Seats with major party competition	65.0%	60.4%	62.7%

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2012

There were 6,013 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2012, in 44 states. Of that total, there were 1,314 open seats, guaranteeing at least 22% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was up from 19% compared to the 2010 elections.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2012:

There were 526 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.

There were 705 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.

There were 83 other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing. It also includes seats where Ballotpedia could not determine partisan control due to redistricting.

The total number of open seats—1,314—was up from 1,143 in 2010, a 15% increase.

Open state legislative seats, 2012
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic	Republican	Other	Total
					#	%
House	4,714	409	531	83	1,023	21.7%
Senate	1,299	117	174	0	291	22.4%
Total	6,013	526	705	83	1,314	21.9%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats compared to 2010. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders. It also includes seats whose previous officeholder could not be determined due to redistricting, resulting in a larger value in 2012.

Incumbents in contested primaries

See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2012

There were 6,013 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2012, in 44 states. Overall, 4,790 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 1,117 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 23% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This represented an increase from 2010 when 20% of incumbents faced contested primaries.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

In 2012:

There were 450 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 21% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 19% decrease from 2010.

There were 667 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 26% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 53% increase from 2010.

There were no minor party or independent incumbents in contested primaries.

The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—1,117—represented a 12% increase from 2010.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2012
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
House	4,714	1,687	351	20.8%	2,070	527	25.5%	3,767	878	23.3%
Senate	1,299	483	99	20.5%	538	140	26.0%	1,023	239	23.4%
Total	6,013	2,170	450	20.7%	2,608	667	25.6%	4,790	1,117	23.3%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries between 2010 and 2012.

All contested primaries

See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2012

This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 5,633 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 11,017 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 2,037 contested primaries, meaning 18.5% of all primaries were contested, roughly the same as in 2010, when 18.3% of primaries were contested.

In 2012:

There were 823 contested Democratic primaries, representing 15% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 6% decrease from 2010.

There were 1,116 contested Republican primaries, representing 21% of all possible Republican primaries and a 3% increase from 2010.

There were 98 contested top-two/four primaries, representing 39% of all possible top-two/four primaries and a 98% increase/decrease from 2010, caused, in part, by California's transition from partisan primaries to a top-two primary system.

The total number of contested primaries—2,037—was roughly the same as in 2010, representing a 1% increase from the 2,017 held that year.

Contested state legislative primaries, 2012
Chamber	Districts
		Democratic		Republican		Top-two/four		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	4,351	647	15.5%	841	20.2%	75	42.1%	1,563	18.3%
Senate	1,282	176	14.5%	275	22.7%	23	32.4%	474	19.0%
Total	5,633	823	15.3%	1,116	20.7%	98	39.4%	2,037	18.5%

The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries between 2010 and 2012.

Major party competition

See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2012

There were 6,013 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2012, in 44 states. Of that total, 2,384 (40%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 3,629 (60%) were contested by both major parties. This was the largest number and percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

In 2012:

Democrats were guaranteed to win 1,113 seats (19%) that lacked Republican competition, a 11% increase from 2010.

Republicans were guaranteed to win 1,267 seats (21%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 12% increase from 2010.

Overall, Democrats ran for 4,742 seats (79%) and Republicans ran for 4,896 (81%).

There were four seats guaranteed to minor party or independent candidates because no major party candidates ran.

The total number of seats without major party competition—2,384—was more than in 2010 (2,142), representing a 11% increase.

Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2012
Chamber	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	4,714	877	18.6%	994	21.1%	1,875	39.8%	2,839	60.2%
Senate	1,299	236	18.2%	273	21.0%	509	39.2%	790	60.8%
Total	6,013	1,113	18.5%	1,267	21.1%	2,384	39.6%	3,629	60.4%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2010 to 2012.

See also

• State legislative elections, 2012
  • Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2012
  • Open seats in state legislative elections, 2012
  • Contested state legislative primaries, 2012
  • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2012
  • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2012
  • Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2012
  • State legislative incumbents without general election challengers, 2012
• Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2012

Footnotes

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