Arizona House term limits create vacancies
By Michael Dean
Arizona is one of 15 states that has enacted state legislative term limits in its state house. Imposed in 1992, Arizona Term Limits, Proposition 107 (1992) officially takes affect in 2010. Term limits on Arizona representatives will affect a total of 13 out of 60 members in the 2010 elections alone. This is the first year that Arizona representatives have felt the impact of term limits.
Five Democratic senators Robert Meza, Ben R. Miranda, Phil Lopes, Olivia Cajero Bedford and David Bradley are all in-eligible to run for re-election because of term limits. On the Republican side the GOP will be losing eight seats to term limit expirations: Lucy Mason, Tom Boone, Bill Konopnicki, Ray Barnes, Michele Reagan, Warde Nichols, Steven B. Yarbrough and Andy Biggs.
Republicans currently hold a nine-seat majority over Democrats heading into the November second elections. Although the Arizona State House is historically held by the Republican party, the Democrat's chances of gaining seats are increased due to Republicans losing more representatives to term limits than Democrats.
|Party||As of December 2014|
Politifact staff writer Louis Jacobson writes, "With Arizona in the national spotlight for its polarizing new law that cracks down on illegal immigration, the state’s politics are volatile. Polling in the state shows that the law is popular, so on the surface, the GOP shouldn’t be concerned about keeping its majorities in both chambers. But even Republicans acknowledge some worry. The splits in the national GOP between a restive Tea Party base and the party establishment are even rawer here than in other states, and the targeting of illegal immigration could energize Hispanics to vote in unusually large numbers for a midterm election. The GOP certainly starts with an edge, but don’t rule out a tightening as Election Day approaches." Jacobson's analysis says that the Arizona House is likely to remain in Republican hands.
- Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2010#Arizona
- Arizona House of Representatives elections, 2010
- State house elections, 2010
- State legislatures with term limits