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Arkansas's 4th Congressional District elections, 2012

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Arkansas's 4th Congressional District

General Election Date
November 6, 2012

Primary Date
May 22, 2012

November 6 Election Winner:
Tom Cotton Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Mike Ross Democratic Party
Mike Ross.jpg

Arkansas U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

744px-Flag of Arkansas.svg.png
The 4th Congressional District of Arkansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.

Tom Cotton was elected on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 1, 2012
May 22, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Arkansas has an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by April 23. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 8.[2]

See also: Arkansas elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Mike Ross (D), who was first elected in 2000. Ross did not run for re-election.

This was the first election which used new district maps based on 2010 Census data. The 4th District is located in southwestern Arkansas. Madison, Newton, Johnson, Franklin, Crawford, Sebastian, Logan, Yell, Scott, Polk, Montgomery, Garland, Sevier, Howard, Little River, Grant, Jefferson, Cleveland, Drew, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Union, Columbia, Miller, Lafayette, Hempstead, Nevada, Clark and Dallas counties are included in the new boundaries of the district.[3]

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Gene Jeffress
Republican Party Tom Cotton Green check mark transparent.png
Green Party Joshua Drake
Libertarian Party Bobby Tullis

June 12, 2012, Democratic primary runoff


May 22, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Election results

U.S. House, Arkansas District 4 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Gene Jeffress 36.7% 95,013
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom Cotton 59.5% 154,149
     Green Joshua Drake 1.9% 4,807
     Libertarian Bobby Tullis 1.9% 4,984
Total Votes 258,953
Source: Arkansas Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"
U.S. House, Arkansas District 4 Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTom Cotton 57.6% 20,899
Beth Anne Rankin 37.1% 13,460
John Cowart 5.4% 1,953
Total Votes 36,312

Impact of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in Arkansas

Arkansas's 4th Congressional District gained all or part of eight western counties. This includes all of Franklin, Johnson, Madison, and Yell counties and parts of Crawford, Newton, and Sebastian counties. It also lost three counties, Chicot, Desha, and Lincoln. This shifted the district from its traditionally Democratic base to one which may favor Republicans.

Dr. Jay Barth, a professor of political science at Hendrix College, said "The Fourth District will certainly be unpredictable this cycle." He also stated the following, "Right now, you'd have to say advantage Republicans for the fall. I think no matter who the GOP nominee is the Republican National Congressional Campaign Committee is going to see a real possibility for a pick-up in that district and they're going to come in with money. The real question really becomes does the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) see the district as one they can save."[10]

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Arkansas's 4th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[11]

  • 2012: 35D / 65R
  • 2010: 37D / 63R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also: Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Arkansas's 4th Congressional District has a PVI of R+9, which is the 126th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 62-38 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 54-46 percent over John Kerry (D).[12]

Campaign contributions

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.

Gene Jeffress

Gene Jeffress (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[13]April 25, 2012$8,000$17,900$(13,779.74)$8,120.26
Pre-Primary[14]May 16, 2012$8,120.26$5,000$(2,162.56)$10,957.70
Pre-Runoff[15]June 4, 2012$10,957.70$9,271$(14,903.59)$5,324.41
July Quarterly[16]June 29, 2012$5,324.41$28,950$(12,543.23)$16,931.18
Running totals
$61,121$(43,389.12)

Tom Cotton

Tom Cotton (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[17]April 14, 2012$479,006.82$352,504.94$(193,288)$638,223.76
Pre-Primary[18]May 10, 2012$638,223.76$188,296.88$(389,744.78)$436,775.86
Running totals
$540,801.82$(583,032.78)

District history

Candidate Ballot Access
Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg

Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington D.C.
This is the 4th Congressional District prior to the 2010 redistricting.

2010

On November 2, 2010, Ross won re-election to the Mike Ross. He defeated Beth Anne Rankin and Josh Drake in the general election.[19]

U.S. House, Arkansas District 4 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMike Ross Incumbent 57.5% 102,479
     Republican Beth Anne Rankin 40.2% 71,526
     Green Josh Drake 2.3% 4,129
Total Votes 178,134

See also

External links

References

  1. ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
  2. Arkansas Secretary of State, "2012 Election Calendar," accessed July 20, 2012
  3. Arkansas April 2011 Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed July 23, 2012
  4. "Rankin, Jeffress launch congressional bids in Ark.," RealClearPolitics.com, August 29, 2011
  5. Talkbusiness.net, "Greg Hale's Name Surfaces In Fourth District Congressional Race," January 18, 2012
  6. "In Ross's wake," ArkTimes.com, July 27, 2011
  7. Arkansas Times, " Another (armed)candidate for 4th District Congress," December 12, 2011
  8. "Rankin, Jeffress launch congressional bids in Ark.," RealClearPolitics.com, August 29, 2011
  9. "Rankin, Jeffress launch congressional bids in Ark.," RealClearPolitics.com, August 29, 2011
  10. TheCityWire.com, "New lines shape Arkansas’ 4th District race," March 27, 2012
  11. "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Arkansas," September 2012
  12. Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
  13. Federal Election Commission, "Gene Jeffress April Quarterly," accessed July 9, 2012
  14. Federal Election Commission, "Gene Jeffress Pre-Primary," accessed July 9, 2012
  15. Federal Election Commission, "Gene Jeffress Pre-Runoff," accessed July 9, 2012
  16. Federal Election Commission, "Gene Jeffress July Quarterly," accessed July 9, 2012
  17. Federal Election Commission, "Tom Cotton April Quarterly," accessed July 9, 2012
  18. Federal Election Commission, "Tom Cotton Pre-Primary," accessed July 9, 2012
  19. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"