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Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Analysis for 2012

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2012 Competitiveness Overview
Competitiveness study logo 2012.jpg
Primary competition (state comparison)
Incumbents with no challenges at all in 2012
Incumbents defeatedVictorious challengers
Primary competitiveness
Major party challengers (state comparison)
List of candidates with no competition
Open seats (state comparisons)
Impact of term limits on # of open seats
Long-serving senatorsLong-serving reps
Star bookmark.png   Chart Comparing 2012 Results   Star bookmark.png
Chart Comparing 2012 ResultsComparisons Between Years
Competitiveness IndexAbsolute Index
2012 State Legislative Elections
2012 Competitiveness Tracker
Competitiveness Studies from Other Years
200720092010201120132014

This page is used to provide readers with information about updates to Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Study. After each state releases an official primary candidate list, members of the Ballotpedia staff perform an analysis of each district's race to look for the following circumstances:

  • Primary competitiveness

Using the official primary candidate lists from each state, staff members analyzed each district's race to look for the following circumstances:

  • No incumbent running with only one candidate
  • No incumbent running with a contested primary
  • Incumbent is running uncontested
  • Incumbent is running in a contested primary
  • No candidate has declared
  • General election competitiveness

Using the official candidate lists from each state, staff members analyzed each district's race to look for the following circumstances:

  • Incumbent is not running
  • Incumbent faces a primary challenger
  • Only one major party candidate in the general election

After the raw data was obtained, our staff analyzed the states to determine if there was noticeable partisan difference as well as the difference between states with and without term limits.

After the analysis of a state has been completed, the Competitiveness Study will be updated and the changes will be reflected on this page. Additionally, links to detailed reports of each state's individual competitiveness numbers will be posted on this page.

Note: California, Louisiana and Washington employ a top-two primary system. In top-two states, two candidates can advance to the general election.[1]

Filing date State  % Open seats  % Incumbents facing a primary  % Major party candidates with major party competition Competitiveness index Individual Breakdown
July 12 New York 20.6 10.8 65.7 32.4 Link
July 10 Delaware 18.9 16.1 38.7 24.57 Link
June 27 Rhode Island 33.7 8.9 46 29.53 Link
June 15 New Hampshire 46.5 30 79.5 52.00 Link
June 14 Vermont 8.4 12.8 71.7 30.97 Link
June 12 Connecticut 5.6 13.9 81.8 33.77 Link
June 11 Kansas 41.7 30.3 70.3 47.43 Link
June 5 Minnesota 7 25.4 96 42.80 Link
June 5 Massachusetts 11.1 4.5 31.5 15.70 Link
June 5 Hawaii 38 10.5 61.8 36.77 Link
June 1 Wyoming 35 20 29.3 28.10 Link
June 1 Wisconsin 17 24.4 75.7 39.03 Link
June 1 Alaska 32.1 18.6 67.8 39.50 Link
May 30 Arizona 45.8 24.4 61.1 43.77 Link
May 25 Georgia 23.8 11.4 23.7 19.63 Link
May 18 Washington 14.3 25 71.8 37.03 Link
May 15 Michigan 39.1 20.9 98.2 52.73 Link
May 7 Florida 32.7 32.5 49.4 38.20 Link
April 13 Oklahoma 11.8 13.6 64.8 30.07 Link
April 13 North Dakota 11.5 25.3 82.7 39.83 Link
April 5 Tennessee 37.8 17.4 53.9 36.37 Link
April 2 Colorado 9.4 38.8 85.9 44.70 Link
March 30 South Carolina 25 14.1 30 23.03 Link
March 27 South Dakota 21.5 19.1 65.7 35.43 Link
March 27 Missouri 27.8 32.8 49.4 36.67 Link
March 20 New Mexico 31.9 18.8 47.3 32.67 Link
March 16 Utah 37.2 20.9 81.3 46.47 Link
March 16 Nevada 33.3 33.3 79.6 48.73 Link
March 16 Iowa 16.2 26.9 67.5 36.87 Link
March 15 Maine 4.1 35 98.9 46.00 Link
March 12 Montana 20.7 34.9 80.9 45.50 Link
March 9 Texas 30.6 18.8 36.5 28.63 Link
March 9 Idaho 49.3 34.3 76.2 53.27 Link
March 9 California 35.7 44 92 57.23 Link
March 6 Oregon 6.2 13.2 76.3 31.90 Link
March 1 Nebraska 29.4 34.6 84.6 49.53 Link
March 1 Arkansas 15.9 34.8 46.7 32.47 Link
February 29 North Carolina 30.7 26.5 60.6 39.27 Link
February 24 Indiana 16.5 17.6 60 31.37 Link
February 16 Pennsylvania 18.5 7.5 47.4 24.47 Link
January 31 Kentucky 19.8 10.9 47.9 26.20 Link
January 28 West Virginia 37.8 6.8 69.2 37.93 Link
December 7, 2011 Ohio 14.6 13.8 88.8 39.07 Link
December 5, 2011 Illinois 22.6 19.2 36.7 26.17 Link

See also

References

  1. On September 14, 2012, Joseph Perkins from CalWatchdog published an article arguing that the top-two system was not explicitly included in Ballotpedia's study. For more read here.