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Ballotpedia:WikiProject State Attorneys General/Election Racetracking
- See: State Executive officials/Election Racetracking for racetracking methodology for years following 2010.
Ballotpedia is providing a State Attorney General election racetracking service as part of its coverage of the 2010 State Attorney General elections.
Joe Kastner does the race-tracking analysis for State Attorney General elections, and for the 2010 Secretary of State elections. E-mail him (kastner.joseph@gmail.com) with any questions or concerns.
For each of the 30 State Attorney General races in 2010, Kastner puts the expected outcome in one of 7 classifications. The 7 classifications are "Safe Democrat", "Likely Democrat", "Leans Democrat", "Toss-up", "Leans Republican", "Likely Republican" and "Safe Republican." These are the standard 7 classifications typically used by organizations such as Congressional Quarterly when assessing the likely outcomes of races for U.S. Congress and governor.
2010 Methodology
| 2010 AG Elections |
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| 2010 AG Election Guide |
| Candidates for AG AG 2010 polls AG Racetracking AG news headlines |
| All 2010 Elections |
| General Election Results |
These are the 7 classifications and the considerations Kastner takes into account when deciding how to classify a particular race.
In some cases, the only two highly relevant pieces of information that are available to allow an assessment are (a) how the statewide electorate voted in the 2008 presidential election and (b) the most recent election outcome for the specific office of State Attorney General.
Basic considerations
- Safe Democrat
- If a Democrat currently occupies the statewide position and faces no major challenge in the November 2010 election
- If a Democratic candidate vying for the office faces no Republican challenger in November
- Likely Democrat
- If a state (55% of the electorate or above) went to Barack Obama in the November 2008 presidential election
- If a Democrat currently occupies the statewide position
- Lean Democrat
- If a state (below 55% of the electorate) went to Barack Obama in the November 2008 presidential election
- If a Democrat currently occupies the statewide position
- Toss-up
- If the state went to Barack Obama in November 2008, but a Republican currently occupies the statewide position
- If the state went to John McCain in November 2008, but a Democrat currently occupies the statewide position
- Lean Republican
- If a state (below 55% of the electorate) went to John McCain in the November 2008 presidential election
- If a Republican currently occupies the statewide position
- Likely Republican
- If a state (55% of the electorate or above) went to John McCain in the November 2008 presidential election
- If a Republican currently occupies the statewide position
- Safe Republican
- If a Republican currently occupies the statewide position and faces no major challenge in the November 2010 election
- If a Republican candidate vying for the office faces no Democratic challenger in November
Additional considerations
However, as election day approaches, in some high profile or high intensity elections, additional information will become available. The additional information that is likely to be judged as relevant for predicting the outcome of a race is:
- Campaign fundraising
- Polls for the office
- Key or surprising endorsements
- Polls for the top of the ticket (U.S. Senate or governor campaigns in the state, if there are any) that might be taken as evidence of a pronounced political tide in effect in that state that could carry down-ticket races along with them.
Chart
| Month | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Safe R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| September | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| October | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 |
