California's 31st Congressional District elections, 2014

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
2012

CongressLogo.png

California's 31st Congressional District

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
June 3, 2014

Incumbent prior to election:
Gary Miller Republican Party
Gary Miller.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean D[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean D[2]


California U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9District 10District 11District 12District 13District 14District 15District 16District 17District 18District 19District 20District 21District 22District 23District 24District 25District 26District 27District 28District 29District 30District 31District 32District 33District 34District 35District 36District 37District 38District 39District 40District 41District 42District 43District 44District 45District 46District 47District 48District 49District 50District 51District 52District 53

2014 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of California.png
SimmeringRace.jpg
The 31st Congressional District of California will hold an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014.

Four Democratic candidates and three Republican candidates sought the open seat left by the retirement of Gary Miller (R). Miller was able to win re-election in the Democratic leaning district in 2012, due to four Democratic candidates splitting the primary vote enough so that the two Republican candidates advanced past the primary. The same almost happened in 2014 but was less likely, since three Republican candidates ran, rather than two.

Republican Paul Chabot and Democrat Pete Aguilar advanced to the general election. A recount of the race began on June 25, three weeks after the primary, to determine whether Aguilar or third-place finisher Lesli Gooch (R) would advance to the general election. At the time, Gooch trailed Aguilar by just 209 votes. Gooch conceded after the first day of the recount yielded her only one additional vote.[3]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 7, 2014
June 3, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: California is one of three states to use a blanket primary, or top-two system, which allows all candidates to run and all voters to vote but only moves the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, to the general election.[4][5][6]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters had to register by May 19, 2014. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 20, 2014 (the 15th calendar day before that election).[7]

See also: California elections, 2014

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent is Gary Miller (R), who was first elected in 1998. Miller is not seeking re-election in 2014.

California's 31st Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes the southwestern corner of San Bernardino County.[8]

Candidates

General election candidates

Republican Party Paul Chabot
Democratic Party Pete Aguilar


June 3, 2014, primary results

Democratic Party Pete Aguilar Approveda
Democratic Party Joe Baca - Former U.S. rep
Democratic Party Danny Tillman
Democratic Party Eloise Gomez Reyes
Republican Party Lesli Gooch - Aide to retiring Rep. Gary Miller
Republican Party Paul Chabot Approveda
Republican Party Ryan Downing

Withdrew

Republican Party John Valdivia

Primary results

U.S. House, California District 31 Primary, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Chabot 26.6% 14,163
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngPete Aguilar 17.4% 9,242
     Republican Lesli Gooch 17% 9,033
     Democratic Eloise Reyes 15.9% 8,461
     Democratic Joe Baca 11.2% 5,954
     Democratic Danny Tillman 8.7% 4,659
     Republican Ryan Downing 3.3% 1,737
Total Votes 53,249
Source: California Secretary of State

Race background

With the retirement announcement of incumbent Gary Miller (R), the Democratic Party is expected to be able to take control of the district in November. Paul Chabot (R) will face Pete Aguilar (D) in the November general election.

Once again, there was the fear that the four Democratic candidates could siphon enough votes off of each other to allow two Republican candidates to advance past the top-two primary in June. This occurred in 2012, allowing incumbent Gary Miller to keep his seat.[9] Fortunately for Democrats, Pete Aguilar secured the second spot on the general election ballot, edging out Republican Lesli Gooch by 209 votes.

A secretive group, Cal Voters for Honest Government, spent money to support Joe Baca's campaign. The group sent out mailers, made phone calls and put up billboards in support of Baca. The group failed to disclose its spending to the Federal Election Commission as required by law.[10]

Key votes

Below are important votes the current incumbent cast during the 113th Congress.

HR 676

See also: Boehner's lawsuit against the Obama administration

Yea3.png On July 30, 2014, the U.S. House approved a resolution 225 to 201 to sue President Barack Obama for exceeding his constitutional authority. Five Republicans--Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Paul Broun of Georgia, Scott Garrett of New Jersey, Walter Jones of North Carolina and Steve Stockman of Texas-- voted with Democrats against the lawsuit.[11] Miller joined the other 224 Republicans in favor of the lawsuit. All Democrats voted against the resolution.[12][13]

Government shutdown

See also: United States budget debate, 2013

Yea3.png On September 30, 2013, the House passed a final stopgap spending bill before the shutdown went into effect. The bill included a one-year delay of the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate and would have also stripped the bill of federal subsidies for congressional members and staff. It passed through the House with a vote of 228-201.[14] At 1 a.m. on October 1, 2013, one hour after the shutdown officially began, the House voted to move forward with going to a conference. In short order, Sen. Harry Reid rejected the call to conference.[15] Gary Miller voted for the stopgap spending bill that would have delayed the individual mandate.[16]

Yea3.png The shutdown ended on October 16, 2013, when the House took a vote on HR 2775 after it was approved by the Senate. The bill to reopen the government lifted the $16.7 trillion debt limit and funded the government through January 15, 2014. Federal employees also received retroactive pay for the shutdown period. The only concession made by Senate Democrats was to require income verification for Obamacare subsidies.[17] The House passed the legislation shortly after the Senate, by a vote of 285-144, with all 144 votes against the legislation coming from Republican members. Gary Miller voted for HR 2775.[18]

Endorsements

Pete Aguilar

The following Democratic representatives endorsed Aguilar in his primary battle:[19][20][21]

Aguilar also received the support of Senator Dianne Feinstein, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.[22]

Aguilar received the backing of the California Democratic Party at its state convention. He received the support of 74% of the delegates compared to Reyes' 18%.[23]

A full list of endorsements can be found here.

Eloise Gomez Reyes

Reyes received the endorsement of Rep. Xavier Becerra. This endorsement breaks with that of the DCCC, which endorsed Pete Aguilar early in the race.[24] Reps. Grace Napolitano, Lucille Roybal-Allard and Jackie Speier endorsed her as well.

Reyes also received the endorsement of former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis. She said, "In this day and age when the powerful special interests are gaining even more power, the working families that make our country strong need a strong voice and their own tenacious fighter in Congress. Eloise Gomez Reyes is the person for the job. She has spent her entire career fighting for working families and people who can’t fight for themselves."[25]

On August 6, 2013, Reyes received the endorsement of EMILY's List.[26]

A full list of endorsements can be found here.

Joe Baca

Baca reported receiving endorsements from 27 House Democrats. They are as follows:[27]

Polls

California's 31st Congressional District blanket primary
Poll Pete Aguilar (D) Eloise Gomez Reyes (D)Danny Tillman (D)Joe Baca (D)Paul Chabot (R)Lesil Gooch (R)Ryan Downing (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Tulchin Research (May 7-8)
15%13%6%13%23%6%7%18%+/-4.9400
Tulchin Research (April 14-17)
15%12%6%8%21%4%4%30%+/-3.99600
AVERAGES 15% 12.5% 6% 10.5% 22% 5% 5.5% 24% +/-4.45 500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Media

Pete Aguilar


Pete Aguilar's first TV ad

Pete Aguilar's second TV ad

Eloise Gomez Reyes


Eloise Gomez Reyes' first TV ad

Campaign contributions

Outside spending

The DCCC spent $26,000 on an unspecified media buy and $22,000 on mailers attacking Republican Lesli Gooch in an attempt to keep him from securing the second place spot in the blanket primary.[28]

Pete Aguilar

Pete Aguilar (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[29]April 15, 2013$19,648.45$16.64$(2,623.88)$17,041.21
July Quarterly[30]July 15, 2013$17,041.21$301,863.62$(28,548.32)$290,356.51
October Quarterly[31]October 15, 2013$290,356.51$200,234.82$(52,865.57)$437,725.76
Year-End[32]January 31, 2014$437,725$147,086$(61,248)$523,564
April Quarterly[33]April 15, 2014$523,564$262,047$(102,375)$683,236
Pre-Primary[34]May 22, 2014$683,236$131,735$(412,215)$402,755
July Quarterly[35]July 14, 2014$402,755$284,381$(361,408)$325,728
Running totals
$1,327,364.08$(1,021,283.77)

Joe Baca

Joe Baca (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[36]April 15, 2013$8,535.87$17,608.19$(19,760.79)$6,383.27
July Quarterly[37]July 15, 2013$6,383.27$38,272.23$(17,243.90)$27,411.60
October Quarterly[38]October 15, 2013$27,411.60$36,444.05$(27,249.88)$36,605.77
Year-End[39]January 31, 2014$36,605$20,484$(35,723)$21,367
April Quarterly[40]April 15, 2014$21,367$33,135$(25,880)$28,622
Pre-Primary[41]May 22, 2014$28,622$22,155$(30,991)$19,786
Running totals
$168,098.47$(156,848.57)

Danny Tillman

Danny Tillman (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
July Quarterly[42]July 12, 2013$0.00$6,738.00$(5,137.74)$1,600.26
October Quarterly[43]October 12, 2013$1,600.00$4,967.00$(4,234.00)$2,333.00
Year-End[44]January 30, 2014$2,333$4,034$(4,000)$2,367
April Quarterly[45]April 14, 2014$2,367$10,148$(7,343)$5,172
Pre-Primary[46]May 19, 2014$5,172$10,259$(9,217)$6,215
Running totals
$36,146$(29,931.74)

Eloise Gomez Reyes

Eloise Gomez Reyes (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
July Quarterly[47]July 16, 2013$0.00$203,706.12$(9,931.77)$193,774.35
October Quarterly[48]October 15, 2013$193,774.35$111,814.82$(31,097.59)$274,491.58
Year-End[49]January 29, 2014$274,491$302,084$(97,679)$478,896
April Quarterly[50]April 15, 2014$478,896$206,506$(150,578)$534,824
Pre-Primary[51]May 22, 2014$534,824$103,563$(468,949)$169,437
Running totals
$927,673.94$(758,235.36)

**As of the 2014 Pre-Primary Report, Reyes' committee owed $100,000 in outstanding loans to Eloise Gomez Reyes.

Lesli Gooch

Lesli Gooch (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[52]April 15, 2014$0$200,163$(17,829)$182,334
Pre-Primary[53]May 22, 2014$182,334$72,120$(153,579)$100,874
Running totals
$272,283$(171,408)

**As of the 2014 Pre-Primary Report, Gooch's committee owed $135,000 in outstanding loans to Lesli Gooch.

Paul Chabot

Paul Chabot (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[54]April 15, 2014$0$104,962$(16,313)$88,648
Pre-Primary[55]May 22, 2014$88,648$20,288$(80,377)$28,559
July Quarterly[56]July 15, 2014$28,559$39,661$(41,879)$26,341
Running totals
$164,911$(138,569)

**As of the 2014 July Quarterly Report, Chabot's committee owed $66,500 in outstanding loans to Paul Chabot.

District history

Candidate ballot accecss
Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg

Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington D.C.

2012

On November 6, 2012, Gary Miller (R) won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Bob Dutton in the general election.

U.S. House, California District 31 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGary Miller Incumbent 55.2% 88,964
     Republican Bob Dutton 44.8% 72,255
Total Votes 161,219
Source: California Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Xavier Becerra won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Stephen Smith (R) and Sal Genovese (Write-in) in the general election.[57]

U.S. House, California District 31 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngXavier Becerra incumbent 83.8% 76,363
     Republican Stephen Smith 16.2% 14,740
     Write-in Sal Genovese 0% 3
Total Votes 91,106

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS FOR June 26, 2014," accessed July 28, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed July 28, 2014
  3. Roll Call, "Republican Drops Recount in Targeted California Race," June 26, 2014
  4. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  5. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  6. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  7. California Secretary of State Website, "Voter Registration," accessed January 3, 2014
  8. California Redistricting Map "Map" accessed September 25, 2012
  9. Roll Call, "For Democrats, It’s Déjà Vu in California’s 31st District," May 14, 2014
  10. Los Angeles Times, "Secretive group spending money on former Rep. Joe Baca's campaign," May 19, 2014
  11. U.S. House, "House Resolution 676," accessed July 30, 2014
  12. Yahoo News, "Suing Obama: GOP-led House gives the go-ahead," accessed July 30, 2014
  13. Washington Post, "House clears way for lawsuit against Obama," accessed July 30, 2014
  14. Clerk of the U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 504," accessed October 31, 2013
  15. Buzzfeed, "Government Shutdown: How We Got Here," accessed October 1, 2013
  16. Clerk of the U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 504," accessed October 31, 2013
  17. The Washington Post, "Reid, McConnell propose bipartisan Senate bill to end shutdown, extend borrowing," accessed October 16, 2013
  18. U.S. House, "Final vote results for Roll Call 550," accessed October 31, 2013
  19. Roll Call, "Two House Democrats Back Aguilar Over Baca #CA31," May 6, 2013
  20. Roll Call, "Ten House Democrats Endorse Pete Aguilar #CA31," May 22, 2013
  21. Roll Call, "Gavin Newsom, Zoe Lofgren Take Sides in Crowded House Primary | #CA31," August 19, 2013
  22. The Hill, "Feinstein endorses Calif. House candidate over ex-Rep. Baca," July 10, 2013
  23. Pete Aguilar campaign website, "Pete Aguilar Receives Backing Of California Democratic Party For CD 31 Seat," March 9, 2014
  24. Huffington Post, "Split In Democratic Party Establishment As Xavier Becerra Endorses Eloise Gomez Reyes," February 21, 2014
  25. Roll Call, "Hilda Solis Endorses in California House Primary," February 24, 2014
  26. Roll Call, "EMILY’s List Backs Six House Candidates," August 6, 2013
  27. Roll Call, "Ex-Rep. Joe Baca Touts 30 Endorsements From House Democrats #CA31," May 28, 2013
  28. Federal Election Commission, "DCCC Independent Expenditures," May 30, 2014
  29. Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar April Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  30. Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  31. Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar October Quarterly," accessed October 29, 2013
  32. Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar Year-End," accessed February 10, 2014
  33. Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar April Quarterly," accessed May 5, 2014
  34. Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  35. Federal Election Commission, "Pete Aguilar July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2014
  36. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca April Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  37. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  38. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca October Quarterly," accessed October 29, 2013
  39. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca Year-End," accessed February 10, 2014
  40. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca April Quarterly," accessed May 5, 2014
  41. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Baca Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  42. Federal Election Commission, "Danny Tillman July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  43. Federal Election Commission, "Danny Tillman October Quarterly," accessed October 29, 2013
  44. Federal Election Commission, "Danny Tillman Year-End," accessed February 10, 2014
  45. Federal Election Commission, "Danny Tillman April Quarterly," accessed May 5, 2014
  46. Federal Election Commission, "Danny Tillman Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  47. Federal Election Commission, "Eloise Gomez Reyes July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  48. Federal Election Commission, "Eloise Gomez Reyes October Quarterly," accessed October 29, 2013
  49. Federal Election Commission, "Eloise Gomez Reyes Year-End," accessed February 10, 2014
  50. Federal Election Commission, "Eloise Gomez Reyes April Quarterly," accessed May 5, 2014
  51. Federal Election Commission, "Eloise Gomez Reyes Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  52. Federal Election Commission, "Lesli Gooch April Quarterly," accessed May 6, 2014
  53. Federal Election Commission, "Lesli Gooch Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  54. Federal Election Commission, "Paul Chabot April Quarterly," accessed May 6, 2014
  55. Federal Election Commission, "Paul Chabot Pre-Primary," accessed June 3, 2014
  56. Federal Election Commission, "Paul Chabot July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2014
  57. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013