Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010

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The Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010 is a service provided by Congressional Quarterly Politics that ranks each of the 37 gubernatorial contests in 2010 as either:
  • Tossup
  • Likely Democratic
  • Likely Republican
  • Leans Democratic
  • Leans Republican
  • Safe Democratic
  • Safe Republican

The rankings are compiled by CQ's staff of editors and reporters who "examine past election results, demographics and party registration figures to determine which races are likely to be the most competitive."[1]

CQ Calls It - 2010 Governors
Party Seats Held Seats in Play Predicted Balance of Power
Democratic 27 19 24
GOP 23 18 26

Rankings by month[2]

As of June 28, 2010, the Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010 identifies 10 campaign contests as either "Safe, Likely or Leans" Democratic, and 15 races as either "Safe, Likely or Leans" Republican.[3][4]

  • The campaign-tracking organization ranks 12 of the 37 contests as "toss-ups" as of June 28th.
  • On January 22, 2010, the organization had ranked 11 races as toss-ups. Through the first half of 2010, CQ rankings have shown a trend for races to move to the center in rankings, with both parties losing 'safe' and 'likely' seats as more races become categorized as 'toss-ups'.
  • By the halfway point of the year, CQ still identified 12 races, or nearly 1/3 of the seats in play, as being toss-ups. The 12 states are currently evenly split between Democratic and Republican governors. By comparison, the Cook Political Report lists 18 seats - nearly half the elections - as being toss-ups at the end on June.
  • Overall, CQ has put more races on the right end of their scale in the past several months. Currently, they are predicting GOP pick-ups in Wyoming and Kansas, as well as favoring the Republican candidate's chances in Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.
  • Compared to the current gubernatorial balance of power, where Democrats occupy 27 seats and Republicans 23, the post-November landscape is predicted to adjust to a slight GOP edge, with Republicans holding 26 of the 50 governorships to the Democrat's 24. There are currently no races in which CQ favors a third party candidate to win.
Month D-Safe D-Likely D-Leans Tossup R-Leans R-Likely R-Safe
January 3 2 8 11 7 3 3
February 3 2 8 10 8 3 3
April 1 4 5 12 8 4 3
June 1 4 5 12 8 4 3
July 1 4 5 12 8 4 3

See also

External links