FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

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The Center for Voting and Democracy, or Fairvote, publishes a Monopoly Politics 2012 study, which is a measurement of partisanship in each congressional district after the redistricting following the 2010 census. This measurement is done in a percentage form (%D / %R) and is compared to that figure prior to redistricting. In addition, the study provides an election projection with the predicted results of the 2012 Congressional elections, the year in which the incumbent was first elected, and the percentage by which the incumbent won the last election.[1]

Basic data

There are three primary sets of data that we use from this study:

  1. The 2012 District Partisanship figure
  2. The 2010 District Partisanship figure
  3. The 2012 Election Projection

For instance, The 3rd Congressional District of Alabama had a 2012 partisanship rating of 33%D / 67%R, a 2010 partisanship rating of 40%D / 60%R, and projected as a safe Republican district in 2012.

2012 elections

See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2012

According to the 2012 national house election projections, there are:[2]

  • 139 Safe Republican districts
  • 38 Likely Republican districts
  • 102 Tossup districts
  • 30 Likely Democratic districts
  • 126 Safe Democratic districts

External links