Hawaii Gubernatorial election, 2014

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Hawaii Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
August 9, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Incumbent prior to election:
Neil Abercrombie Democratic Party
Neil Abercrombie.jpg

Hawaii State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor Lieutenant Governor

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The Hawaii gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Neil Abercrombie (D) is eligible for re-election. The winner of the election will serve a 4-year term in office.

Hawaii is one of 14 states that uses an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[1][2][3]

Candidates

Democratic Primary Candidates

Republican Primary Candidates

General Election Candidates

Race background

Democratic incumbent Gov. Neil Abercrombie is seeking re-election in 2014. The first term chief executive is running on tenterhooks for his second term. With wavering approval numbers, key endorsement losses and the emergence of formidable challengers in both the primary and general election, Abercrombie's prospects heading into the August 9 primary are uncertain. In June, Real Clear Politics rated the race as a "Toss-Up."[11] Around the same time, the Cook Political Report gave the Hawaii Governor's race a "Solid Democratic" rating.[12]

Abercrombie will face a strong challenger in the August primary: State Sen. David Ige. A state lawmaker in Hawaii since 1986, Ige has represented district 16 in the state senate for nearly two decades and currently chairs the chamber's Ways and Means Committee. Ige's campaign has been endorsed by ex-governors Ben Cayetano and George Ariyoshi, both considered former allies of Abercrombie, as well as the Hawaii State Teachers Association (HSTA).[13][14]

The apparent defections of Cayetano and Ariyoshi could stem from Abercrombie's controversial decision in December 2012 to appoint his Lieutenant Governor, Brian E. Schatz (D), to fill the open Senate seat left by the death of veteran U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye (D). Abercrombie denied Inouye's deathbed wish that U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa be appointed to succeed him, tapping Schatz instead.[15][16] Abercrombie was required to appoint one of three individuals submitted by the state party of the incumbent, and Hanabusa - in addition to being Inouye's stated preference - had topped the list of early contenders, therefore the governor's call angered some members of the party.[17][18][19] After the announcement that she had been picked over for the Senate post, Hanabusa considered a bid to take on Abercrombie for re-election in 2014.[20][21] Although Hanabusa ultimately decided to pursue a full term in Inouye's seat in the 2014 election, there could be residual ill-will among some of Hawaii's Democratic elite toward Abercrombie as he approaches a possible second term.

In the months leading up to the June 3 candidate filing deadline, Abercrombie's campaign appeared to be in jeopardy. Despite securing the endorsement of fellow Democrat and Hawaii-native President Barack Obama, roughly half of the polls showed the incumbent trailing Ige in the Democratic primary.[22]

Even more alarming to Abercrombie is the candidacy of former Hawaii Lieutenant Governor and 2010 Republican gubernatorial nominee Duke Aiona. Aiona launched his second consecutive bid for the governor's office in early 2014. He hopes to stage a general election re-match with Abercrombie, who beat him four years ago this upcoming November. Recent polls have underscored the threat Aiona's presence in the race poses to Abercrombie's re-election chances.[22]

The last time a sitting Hawaii Governor ran for re-election and failed was in 1962.[23] Republican William Francis Quinn was Hawaii's first governor as well as its first and only lame duck governor. Quinn sought re-election in 1962, but voters went instead with his Democratic opponent, John Anthony Burns.


Polls

Governor of Hawaii - Democratic Primary
Poll Neil Abercrombie* David IgeUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Honolulu Star-Advertiser
February 1-11, 2014
47%38%14%+/-4.3528
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG
February 12-15, 2014
37%37%26%+/-3.1643
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG
June 7-9, 2014
37%48%15%+/-3.0729
AVERAGES 40.33% 41% 18.33% +/-3.47 633.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Governor of Hawaii - General Election
Poll Neil Abercrombie* (D) Duke Aiona (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Honolulu Star-Advertiser
February 1-11, 2014
40%48%12%+/-3.9642
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG
June 7-9, 2014
27%33%22%+/-3.01,078
AVERAGES 33.5% 40.5% 17% +/-3.45 860
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Note: Not displayed in the table above, Poll #2 also asked registered voters about Independent candidate Mufi Hannemann. In this poll, 18% respondents answered that they would vote for Hannemann over both Abercrombie and Aiona.

Recent news

This section displays the most recent stories in a Google news search for the term "Hawaii + Governor + Election + Abercrombie"

All stories may not be relevant to this page due to the nature of the search engine.

Hawaii Gubernatorial election, 2014 News Feed

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See also

External links

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References

  1. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  2. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  3. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  4. Neil Abercrombie for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 3, 2013
  5. The Washington Post, Hawaii Gov. Abercrombie gets a primary challenger, July 9, 2013
  6. David Ige for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 3, 2013
  7. 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 Hawaii Division of Elections, "2014 Primary Candidate List: Certified," printed June 10, 2014
  8. Duke Aiona for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed February 18, 2014
  9. Jeff Davis for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Meet Jeff," accessed February 18, 2014
  10. Hawaii News Now, "Hannemann supporters reach goal, will Mufi run?," February 21, 2014
  11. Real Clear Politics, "2014 Governor Races, Ratings Map," accessed June 30, 2014
  12. Cook Political Report, "2014 Governors Race Ratings," May 16, 2014
  13. khon2.com, "HSTA endorses David Ige for governor," February 16, 2014
  14. The Star Advertiser, "Abercrombie loses support of former ally Cayetano," November 17, 2013
  15. Washington Post, "Gov. Abercrombie to appoint Inouye’s replacement," December 17, 2012
  16. The Washington Post, "Hawaii governor picks Brian Schatz for Inouye’s seat," December 26, 2012
  17. WMTW.com, "Inouye gave preference for successor before he died," December 18, 2012
  18. CBS news, "Inouye replacement to be named Wednesday," December 24, 2012
  19. Civil Beat, "Inouye's Last Wish Is Abercrombie's Biggest Burden," December 24, 2012
  20. The Hill, "Source: Hanabusa receiving 'a lot of pressure' to run against Abercrombie," December 27, 2012
  21. KHON2, "EXCLUSIVE: Hanabusa says 2014 run for governor, Senate, House all on table," January 14, 2013
  22. 22.0 22.1 Honolulu Civil Beat, "Ige Holds Healthy Lead Over Abercrombie in Hawaii Governor’s Race," June 12, 2014
  23. Honolulu Civil Beat, "Ige Holds Healthy Lead Over Abercrombie in Hawaii Governor’s Race," June 12, 2014