Iowa Gubernatorial election, 2014

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search


StateExecLogo.png

Iowa Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date
June 3, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Incumbent prior to election:
Terry E. Branstad Republican Party
Terry Branstad.jpg

Iowa State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor Lieutenant GovernorSecretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Treasurer, Auditor, Agriculture Commissioner

Flag of Iowa.png
The Iowa gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014. As Iowa has no gubernatorial term limits, incumbent Terry E. Branstad (R) is eligible for, and is seeking re-election. The winner of the election will serve a 4-year term in office.

Iowa is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. The primary is closed, but voters are allowed to change their political party affiliation on election day.[1]

Candidates

General Election Candidates

Lost in the Primary


Primary Election Results

Governor of Iowa, Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTerry Branstad Incumbent 83% 129,712
Tom Hoefling 16.8% 26,284
Write-in 0.2% 279
Total Votes 156,275
Election Results Via:Iowa Secretary of State.


Race background

Republican incumbent Terry Branstad is running for re-election to a sixth non-consecutive term as governor in 2014. Branstad first held the office from 1983 to 1999, and reemerged after years in political retirement to take back the office in the 2010 gubernatorial election, becoming Iowa's longest serving governor as well as the longest serving governor in U.S. History.[8] Branstad easily defeated Tom Hoefling in the GOP primary election on June 3, 2014. Incumbent Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is also seeking re-election in 2014. This will be her second time sharing a ticket with Branstad.[9]

Before Branstad formally launched his campaign, polls showed him in excellent standing for winning re-election, with an average lead of 20 percentage points in hypothetical general election match-ups.[10] Branstad had looked considerably less secure around the time ex-Democratic challenger Tyler Olson entered the race back in July 2013, with only 43% of polled voters saying they believed the governor deserved to be re-elected and 54% answering that he has held office long enough, even though 51% approved of his performance. December's numbers from Quinnipiac University gave him a boost of eight percentage points in both approval and "deserves to be re-elected" categories.[11][12] As of mid-March, polled continued to show Branstad sitting comfortably at 63% job approval and Hatch trailing behind by 15 percentage points.[13]

By spring, a string of scandals inside the Branstad administration had caused a steep downturn in the incumbent's job approval and trust rating among Iowa voters. In a short space of time, Branstad was accused of using his office to commit or facilitate a variety of crimes and improprieties, such as: the wrongful firing of a state trooper who nabbed the governor for speeding, crooked dealings state judge, abuse in an Iowa juvenile home and giving hush-payments to fired state employees claiming to victims of political revenge. Amid the resulting storm of bad press directed at Branstad and his office, the governor maintained a policy of denying knowledge or involvement in these alleged transgressions. According to an April 22 Public Policy Poll for Progress Iowa, 83% of Iowa voters said they were either somewhat or very aware of the scandals and 56% indicated they were unconvinced by Branstad's official line of denial.[14] In addition, 30% of respondents said they thought Branstad should resign, with 36% believing he should stay and 34% responding "Not sure." Besides shedding voters' doubt on Branstad's honesty and integrity, these allegations have cost the jobs of numerous state department leaders, including the firing of Iowa's administrative department head, and prompted state lawmakers to call for an independent investigation, as of the poll's publication date.[14][15] Branstad closed out April leading Hatch 45-43, his smallest-ever edge, according to a poll conducted on behalf of the conservative-leaning Daily Caller.[16]

Democratic State Rep. Tyler Olson declared his candidacy for governor in July 2013 and was considered a strong contender for the party's nomination before withdrawing from the race in December of that year.[17] He decided to drop out following the announcement of his separation from wife Sarah Olson, who had been an instrumental part of his family-oriented campaign.[18][19] Olson's withdrawal was followed soon thereafter by former state Sen. Bob Krause's announcement he was shutting down his campaign. Their absences cleared the path for remaining Democratic hopeful Jack Hatch to face Branstad in the general election. Krause immediately gave Hatch his support, while Olson noticeably declined to endorse Hatch upon dropping out of the race.[17][20]

Branstad and Hatch will appear on the November general election ballot along with Libertarian candidate Lee Hieb.[21]


Polls

Governor of Iowa: Branstad vs. Hatch
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Jack Hatch (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University Poll
(December 10-15, 2013)
49%33%18%+/-2.41,617
Selzer & Company/The Des Moines Register Poll
(December 8-11, 2013)
52%29%19%+/-3.8650
Quinnipiac University Poll
(March 5-10, 2014)
46%35%15%+/-2.61,411
Suffolk
(April 3-8, 2014)
42%32%24%+/-3.5800
Public Policy Poll/Progress Iowa*
(April 19-20, 2014)
43%38%19%+/-3.8677
Public Policy Poll/Progress Iowa Continued*
(April 19-20, 2014)
41%40%19%+/-3.8677
Vox Populi/Daily Caller Poll
(April 22-24, 2014)
45%43%12%+/-4.0600
Hickman Analytics Poll
(April 24-30, 2014)
50%40%10%+/-4.4500
Global Strategy Group
May 13-15, 2014
47%40%0%+/-4.0602
Public Policy Poll
(May 15-19, 2014)
48%40%12%+/-3.3914
AVERAGES 46.3% 37% 14.8% +/-3.56 844.8
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

*The April 19-20 Progress Iowa poll is displayed above as two separate polls to delineate responses registered before and after respondents were provided information on recent scandals effecting the administration of Gov. Branstad.

Governor of Iowa: Branstad vs. Krause
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Bob Olson (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University Poll
(December 10-15, 2013)
49%31%19%+/-2.41,617
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Governor of Iowa: Branstad vs. Olson
Poll Terry Branstad* (R) Tyler Olson (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University Poll
(December 10-15, 2013)
50%32%18%+/-2.41,617
Selzer & Company/The Des Moines Register Poll
(December 8-11, 2013)
51%28%21%+/-3.8650
AVERAGES 50.5% 30% 19.5% +/-3.1 1,133.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

See also

External links

Light Bulb Icon.svg.png
Suggest a link

References

  1. Iowa Secretary of State Website, "Voter Registration FAQ," accessed January 3, 2014
  2. Branstad and Reynolds 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed November 7, 2013
  3. Jack Hatch for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 17, 2013
  4. The Daily Iowan, "Iowa senator announces campaign for governor," September 17, 2013
  5. SunHerald.com, "Democratic state senator launches run for governor," September 16, 2013
  6. Dr. Lee Hieb for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed March 17, 2014
  7. Tom Hoefling for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 5, 2013
  8. Smart Politics, "The Top 50 Longest-Serving Governors of All Time," April 10, 2013
  9. The DesMoines Register, "It’s official: Terry Branstad will run for sixth term as Iowa governor," January 15, 2014
  10. The Des Moines-Register, "Iowa Poll: Iowans widely approve of state's direction, Branstad's performance," December 16, 2013
  11. Quinnipiac University, Iowa Voters Like Gov. Branstad, But Say It's Time To Go, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Possible 2014 Challengers Are Largely Unknown, July 19, 2013
  12. Quinnipiac University Poll, "December 17, 2013 - Iowa Gov's Approval, Re-election Prospects Improve, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Christie Tops Clinton By 5 Points In 2016 Race," December 17, 2013
  13. Des Moines Register, "Iowa Poll: Support for Branstad up; Hatch sees little progress," March 8, 2014
  14. 14.0 14.1 Progress Iowa, "NEW POLL: Branstad Approval Rating Plummets After Scandals," April 22, 2014
  15. The Des Moines Register, "Branstad fires state director over secret settlement scandal," April 8, 2014
  16. Daily Caller, "Iowa Governor Poll," April 22-24, 2014
  17. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named withdrew
  18. Tyler Olson for Governor 2014, "Homepage," accessed July 11, 2013
  19. The Des Moines-Register, "Iowa Poll: Iowans widely approve of state's direction, Branstad's performance," December 16, 2013
  20. The Desmoines-Register, "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch," January 2, 2013
  21. Lee Hieb for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed March 17, 2014