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Kentucky's 4th congressional district elections, 2012
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| November 6, 2012 |
| May 22, 2012 |
Thomas Massie  |
Geoff Davis |
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Thomas Massie was elected on November 6, 2012.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
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Primary: Kentucky has a closed primary system, meaning the selection of a party's candidates in a primary election is limited to registered members of that party.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by April 23. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9.[2]
- See also: Kentucky elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent is Geoff Davis (R), who was first elected in 2004. Davis announced he will retire, rather than seek re-election in 2012. [3]
This was the first election using new district maps based on 2010 Census data. Kentucky's 4th congressional district is located in northern Kentucky. It is a long district that follows the Ohio River. Spencer, Shelby, Oldham, Henry, Trimble, Carroll, Gallatin, Owen, Grant, Harrison, Pendleton, Campbell, Boone, Bracken, Mason, Lewis, and Greenup counties are included in the district.[4]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.
General election candidates
May 22, 2012 primary results
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Election Results
General Election
| U.S. House, Kentucky, District 4 General Election, 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Bill Adkins | 35% | 104,734 | |
| Republican |  Thomas Massie |
62.1% | 186,036 | |
| Independent | David Lewis | 2.9% | 8,674 | |
| Total Votes | 299,444 | |||
| Source: Kentucky Board of Elections "2012 General Election Official Vote Totals" | ||||
Democratic Primary
| Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Democratic Primary, 2012 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|
Bill Adkins |
68.6% | 17,209 |
| Greg Frank | 31.4% | 7,869 |
| Total Votes | 25,078 | |
Republican Primary
| Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican Primary, 2012 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|
Thomas Massie |
44.8% | 19,689 |
| Alecia Webb-Edgington | 28.6% | 12,557 |
| Gary Moore | 14.8% | 6,521 |
| Brian Oerther | 0.6% | 257 |
| Tom Wurtz | 1.4% | 598 |
| Marc Carey | 1.8% | 783 |
| Walter Christian Schumm | 8% | 3,514 |
| Total Votes | 43,919 | |
Race background
Republican candidate Alecia Webb-Edgington was endorsed by The Kentucky Professional Firefighters Association in the 4th congressional district elections.[10]
Democratic candidate Bill Adkins was endorsed by Northern Kentucky AFL-CIO Central Labor Council in the Democratic primary.[11]
Republican candidate Thomas Massie received the endorsement of the Louisville Tea Party in his race for the 4th congressional district in 2012.[12] He has also picked up endorsements from Tea Party Gubernatorial candidate Phil Moffett,[13] Campbell County Commissioner Brian Painter,[14] Boone County PVA Cindy Arlinghaus,[15] and Alexandria Councilwoman Barb Weber.[16]
On April 20, 2012, Presidential candidate Ron Paul endorsed Massie.[17] May 1, 2012 the Club for Growth endorsed Massie in the 4th district race.[18]
Republican Gary Moore was endorsed by The Northern Kentucky AFL-CIO Central Labor Council in the Republican primary.[19]
Geoff Davis Resigns: Special Election
U.S. Representative Geoff Davis announced his resignation on July 31. Kentucky held special election to fill Davis' seat, which he initially planned to leave at the end of this term.[20][21][22]
Davis said a health issue came up in his family, and he chose to resign early in order to focus on his family.[22] He did not specify the health problem.[20]
As required by the U.S. Constitution, Kentucky scheduled a special election to fill the remainder of Davis' term, which ends in January 2013.[20] The election was set for the same time as the general election on November 6.[23] Thomas Massie (R) and Bill Adkins (D) are already set to vie for the next full term in the general election.[20]
Republican nominee Thomas Massie received the endorsement of the The Fourth District GOP Committee on August 1, 2012 after holding a conference call on the subject. Fourth District GOP Chair Kevin Sell said Davis called in Wednesday night urging support for Massie. Sell said Davis told the Republicans in the conference call he would consider it “a disloyal and damaging act by anyone who rises and nominates any person other than Thomas Massie.”[24]
Both general election candidates, Thomas Massie (R) and Bill Adkins (D), received their party's nomination for the special election.[25]
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in Kentucky
In redistricting, the 4th district was made more favorable to Republicans.[26]
According to some political analysts[26], this could be the most solidly Republican district in the state as a result of the new map.[26] It picks up Shelby and part of Spencer County, as well as the Republican-leaning precincts in eastern Jefferson County while shedding Democratic counties of Fleming, Nicholas, Bath, Elliott Carter and parts of Boyd and Harrison.[26]
Registration statistics
As of October 24, 2012, District 4 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the Kentucky State Board of Elections:
| Kentucky Congressional District 4[27] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 4 | 511,925 | 241,667 | 219,512 | 50,746 | Democratic | 10.09% | -18.03% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Kentucky's 4th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[28]
- 2012: 34D / 66R
- 2010: 35D / 65R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Kentucky's 4th congressional district has a PVI of R+15, which is the 46th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 62-38 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 66-34 percent over John Kerry (D).[29]
Campaign donors
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are Adkin's reports.
| Bill Adkins [30] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly [31] | 3/31/2012 | $0.00 | $7,280.00 | $(6,163.83) | $1,116.17 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[32] | May 11, 2012 | $1,116.17 | $11,726.00 | $(8,796.15) | $4,046.02 | ||||
| July Quarterly [33] | 7/1/2012 | $4,046.02 | $21,783.81 | $(13,846.05) | $11,983.78 | ||||
| October Quarterly[34] | October 15, 2012 | $11,983.78 | $40,959.54 | $(31,683.28) | $21,260.04 | ||||
| Pre-General[35] | October 23, 2012 | $21,260.04 | $14,705.00 | $(8,867.85) | $27,097.19 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $96,454.35 | $(69,357.16) | ||||||||
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are Massie's reports.
| Thomas Massie [36] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly [37] | 3/31/2012 | $0.00 | $232,529.58 | $(75,441.54) | $157,088.04 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[38] | May 8, 2012 | $157,088.08 | $75,211.89 | $(95,815.28) | $136,484.65 | ||||
| July Quarterly [39] | 7/13/2012 | $136,484.65 | $276,060.1 | $(316,201.89) | $96,342.86 | ||||
| October Quarterly[40] | October 15, 2012 | $96,342.86 | $253,818.32 | $(154,853.33) | $195,307.85 | ||||
| Pre-General[41] | October 25, 2012 | $195,307.85 | $111,297.2 | $(31,031.86) | $275,573.19 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $948,917.09 | $(673,343.9) | ||||||||
District history
2010
On November 2, 2010, Geoff Davis won re-election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated John Waltz (D) in the general election.[42]
| U.S. House of Representatives, Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Geoff Davis Incumbent |
69.5% | 151,813 | |
| Democratic | John Waltz | 30.5% | 66,694 | |
| Total Votes | 218,507 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
External links
References
- ↑ ABC News "2012 General Election Results"
- ↑ Kentucky State Board of Elections "Voter Information Guide," Accessed June 29, 2012
- ↑ Roll Call "Rep. Geoff Davis Announces Retirement" Accessed December 18, 2011
- ↑ Kentucky Redistricting Map "Map" Accessed July 24, 2012
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 Kentucky State Board of Elections "Candidate Filings" Accessed January 23, 2012
- ↑ WLKY "Election Results" Accessed May 22, 2012
- ↑ nky.com "It’s official: Webb-Edgington to run for Congress" Accessed December 18, 2011
- ↑ WLKY "Election Results" Accessed May 22, 2012
- ↑ Kentucky Secretary of State Candidate List Accessed September 5, 2012
- ↑ Cincinnati.com "Congressional candidates pick up endorsements" Accessed April 13, 2012
- ↑ NYK.com "Political Notes:The Northern Kentucky AFL-CIO Central Labor Council announces endorsements" Accessed March 15, 2012
- ↑ Cincinnati.com "Congressional candidates pick up endorsements" Accessed April 13, 2012
- ↑ Thomas Massie for Congress "Thomas Massie Endorsed By Phil Moffett" Accessed April 13, 2012
- ↑ Thomas Massie for Congress "Thomas Massie Endorsed by Campbell County Commissioner Brian Painter" Accessed April 13, 2012
- ↑ Thomas Massie for Congress "Thomas Massie Endorsed By Boone County PVA Cindy Arlinghaus" Accessed April 13, 2012
- ↑ Thomas Massie for Congress "Thomas Massie Endorsed By Alexandria Councilwoman Barb Weber" Accessed April 13, 2012
- ↑ Thomas Massie for Congress "Ron Paul Endorses Thomas Massie" Accessed May 1, 2012
- ↑ Roll Call "Club for Growth Announces Three Congressional Endorsements" Accessed May 1, 2012
- ↑ NYK.com "Political Notes:The Northern Kentucky AFL-CIO Central Labor Council announces endorsements" Accessed March 15, 2012
- ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 Courier Journal "Geoff Davis resigns from Congress, cites family health issue," July 31, 2012
- ↑ Washington Post "Republican Rep. Geoff Davis of Kentucky resigns, cites a family health issue," July 31, 2012
- ↑ 22.0 22.1 Politico "Rep. Geoff Davis resigns from Congress," July 31, 2012
- ↑ Roll Call "Breaking: Geoff Davis Resigns From Congress," July 31, 2012
- ↑ Kentucky Politics "Fourth District GOP endorses Massie for special election" Accessed August 2, 2012
- ↑ nky.com, "Adkins and Massie receive special election nominations," September 10, 2012
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 Channel 2 Pure Politics "Analysis: New congressional map only slightly moves the political needle in the 6 districts" Accessed February 29, 2012
- ↑ Kentucky State Board of Elections, "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," June 11, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Kentucky," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission "Bill Adkins Summary Report," Accessed 9/27/2012
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission "April Quarterly," Accessed 9/27/2012
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission "Pre-Primary," Accessed November 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission "July Quarterly," Accessed 9/27/2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "October Quarterly," Accessed November 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Pre-General," Accessed November 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission "Thomas Massie Summary Report," Accessed 9/27/2012
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission "April Quarterly," Accessed 9/27/2012
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission "Pre-Primary," Accessed November 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission "July Quarterly," Accessed 9/27/2012
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission "October Quarterly," Accessed November 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission "Pre-General," Accessed November 1, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010" Accessed November 12, 2011
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