Massachusetts gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2014

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Massachusetts Gubernatorial Election

Primary Date:
September 9, 2014

General Election Date:
November 4, 2014

Race rating: Lean Democrat

November 4 Election Winners:
Charles D. Baker Republican Party
Karyn Polito Republican Party
Incumbents prior to election:
Deval Patrick Democratic Party
Lieutenant governor's office is vacant
Devalpatrick.jpg

Massachusetts State Executive Elections
Top Ballot
Governor Lieutenant Governor
Secretary of StateAttorney General
Down Ballot
Treasurer, Auditor

Lost trifecta for Democrats
WhoRunsTheStates Badge.jpg
State executive offices in Massachusetts
Flag of Massachusetts.png
The Massachusetts gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Deval Patrick (D) was eligible for re-election, as Massachusetts has no gubernatorial term limits, though he decided not to seek re-election. The lieutenant governor's office was vacant following Tim Murray's (D) resignation, effective June 2, 2013, in order to lead the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce.[1] Baker and running mate Karyn Polito won election to concurrent four-year terms in office.

Massachusetts is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. Unaffiliated voters are allowed to vote in the primary election. They may choose which party ballot they wish to vote on and still remain unaffiliated.[2]

Attorney General Martha Coakley survived a bruising Democratic primary and faced Charlie Baker (R), Evan Falchuk (I), Jeffrey McCormick (I) and Scott Lively (I) in the general election. Learn more about the candidates by jumping to the race background section and the debates section. The polling section details the narrow margins between Coakley and Baker heading into the November election.

Both legislative chambers and the governor's office were held by the Democratic Party prior to the election, which made Massachusetts a state government trifecta. Baker and Polito broke up this trifecta by winning in the 2014 election. Learn more about the latest developments in state government trifectas by clicking here.

Candidates

General election

Democratic Party Martha Coakley/Steve Kerrigan[3]
Republican Party Charles D. Baker/Karyn PolitoGreen check mark transparent.png[4][5]
Independent Evan Falchuk/Angus Jennings[6][7]
Independent Jeffrey McCormick/Tracy Post[8][9]
Independent Scott Lively/Shelly Saunders[10]

Lost in primary

Gubernatorial

Democratic Party Donald Berwick - Pediatrician, former Obama administration health care official[7]
Democratic Party Steven Grossman - Massachusetts Treasurer[11][12]
Republican Party Mark Fisher - Business owner[13]

Lieutenant gubernatorial

Democratic Party Leland Cheung
Democratic Party Michael Edward Lake

Did not make general ballot

Democratic Party Juliette Kayyem - Former columnist for the Boston Globe, former Department of Homeland Security’s assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs[14]
Democratic Party Joe Avellone - Health care executive, former Wellesley selectman[15]

Withdrew or declined

Democratic Party Daniel Wolf - State Sen., Cape and Islands District[16][17]
Democratic Party Michael Capuano - U.S. House Rep, 7th District[18][19]
Democratic Party Joe Curtatone - Mayor of Somerville[20][21]


Results

General election

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCharles D. Baker/Karyn Polito 48.4% 1,044,573
     Democratic Martha Coakley/Steve Kerrigan 46.5% 1,004,408
     United Independent Evan Falchuk/Angus Jennings 3.3% 71,814
     Independent Scott Lively/Shelly Saunders 0.9% 19,378
     Independent Jeffrey McCormick/Tracy Post 0.8% 16,295
     Nonpartisan Write-in votes 0.1% 1,858
Total Votes 2,158,326
Election Results via Massachusetts Secretary of State.

Primary election

Gubernatorial

Democratic primary
Governor of Massachusetts, Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMartha Coakley 42.4% 229,156
Steve Grossman 36.4% 196,594
Don Berwick 21.1% 113,988
Write-in candidates 0.2% 995
Total Votes 540,733
Election Results Via:Massachusetts Secretary of State.
Republican primary
Governor of Massachusetts, Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngCharles D. Baker 74.1% 116,004
Mark Fisher 25.7% 40,240
Write-in votes 0.2% 336
Total Votes 156,580
Election Results Via:Massachusetts Secretary of State.

Lieutenant gubernatorial

Democratic primary
Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts, Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngSteve Kerrigan 50.7% 222,562
Leland Cheung 29.3% 128,645
Michael Edward Lake 19.6% 86,006
Write-in votes 0.3% 1,435
Total Votes 438,648
Election Results Via:Massachusetts Secretary of State.
Republican primary

Karyn Polito won the Republican nomination without opposition.

Race background

Current incumbent Deval Patrick, a Democrat first elected in 2006, was eligible to run for re-election in 2014. However, after winning re-election in 2010, Patrick stated that he would not seek a third term as governor in the 2014 election.[22][23]

Democratic nomination

The field of Democrats competing for their party's nomination in the primary, which took place on September 9, 2014, attracted several current officeholders. Treasurer Steven Grossman won the state Democratic convention on June 14, 2014, while Attorney General Martha Coakley came in second. Physician Donald Berwick also secured a place on the primary ballot. Candidates Joe Avellone and Juliette Kayyem failed to achieve 15 percent of the convention backing to reach the primary ballot.[24][25] Coakley was the leading candidate in all polls against Grossman, but did not win over the party itself prior to the primary. Analysts posited that Coakley defeated Grossman based on higher name recognition. Party leaders were concerned she will not be able to win the general election. Grossman was the former chairman of the state and national Democratic parties.[26] Coakley defeated Grossman and Berwick in the September primary to reach the general election ballot.

Republican nomination

Daniel Wolf, a Republican state senator who announced his intentions to run early on, dropped out of the race after his campaign was suspended "indefinitely" since his Aug 2, 2013 disqualification by the Massachusetts Ethics Commission for being a stakeholder in an airline he previously founded, CapeAir. Since CapeAir is now a quasi-public agency whose board is controlled by the governor, the commission ruled Wolf's ties to be a violation of state conflict of interest prohibitions.[27][28] On September 19, the commission granted Wolf a second extension to his compliance deadline, beyond which he would be forced to resign his state senate seat and officially withdraw from the gubernatorial race.[29][30][31] The uncertainty about if and when he could resume campaigning resulted in Wolf's decision to officially withdraw from the race on October 21, 2013. [32][33][34][29]

Charlie Baker, a venture capitalist who was the Republican nominee for governor in 2010, again won his party's nomination at the convention on March 22, 2014. The other Republican challenger, Mark Fisher, originally appeared to have narrowly missed an appearance on the primary ballot after failing to achieve 15 percent of the vote with just 14.765 percent, but after challenging the results in court the judge ruled that Fisher should be allowed to appear with Baker on the primary ballot.[35][13] The blank ballots that were cast at the convention were counted in the total, reducing the percentage that Fisher received just enough to push him off the ballot. Kirsten Hughes, the Massachusetts Republican party chairwoman, told the media after the convention that blanks should not count towards the total. She retracted that statement days later saying she misspoke.[36][37][38] Baker defeated Fisher in the Republican primary on September 9, 2014.

Baker will have had to defend his more moderate views as a Republican in order to distance himself from Coakley. Baker supports both abortion rights and gay marriage, a contrast to many views of his conservative Republican supporters.[39]


Debates

Debate media


August 21 independent debate

August 21 Republican debate

General election

October 7 debate

All five candidates met for a debate prior to the general election, though sharp attacks between Coakley and Baker were the headline event. The two candidates battled over reform of the state's child welfare system and Baker's tenure as chief executive for Harvard Pilgrim Health Care. A super PAC supporting Baker's campaign has claimed in ads that Coakley opposed reforms to the Massachusetts Department of Children and Families during her time as attorney general. Baker continued this attack by pointing out Coakley's defense of the state in 2010 from a lawsuit filed by a child welfare group concerned about the department's handling of foster care. Coakley responded that she was tasked with defending the state's interests as attorney general.[40]

Coakley attacked Baker for accepting a growing salary during his time at Harvard Pilgrim after he was brought in to improve the company's financial outlook. She argued that Baker's salary grew from $600,000 per year to $1.7 million per year while senior citizens were dropped from coverage. Baker countered that his salary was established by a board of directors and his work helped prevent Harvard Pilgrim from going under, which would have weakened health services in the state.[40]

Primary election

August 21 independent debate

Evan Falchuk and Jeffrey McCormick discussed the state's economic fortunes, taxes and a statewide initiative on casinos in a debate hosted by Middlesex Community College. Falchuk, who is running as the United Independent Party candidate, argued that high healthcare costs and limited housing options have led to the state's economic struggles. McCormick countered that job creation and energy costs are the main culprits for economic problems.[41]

McCormick was taken to task by Falchuk over his proposal for a lowered state income tax and shrinking of state agencies. This proposal would establish a five-percent income tax and reduce the number of state jobs by eliminating positions as employees retire or move to new jobs. Falchuk suggested that the proposal doesn't make financial sense, and pushed McCormick to name specific jobs that should be eliminated. McCormick countered that recent investigations into corruption at the state probation department highlights the state's wasteful spending.[41]

The two independent candidates also sparred over Question 3 on the November 4 ballot, which would repeal a 2011 law that allows resort casinos to operate in Massachusetts. McCormick supports Question 3, claiming that the law is only beneficial to casino operators. Falchuk opposes Question 3, as he believes that the people of Massachusetts and their representatives already dealt with the matter. He compared the measure to efforts by congressional Republicans to sue President Barack Obama over the Affordable Care Act.[41]

August 21 Republican debate

Charlie Baker and Mark Fisher faced off over jobs, schools and gun control in a debate hosted by Middlesex Community College. Both candidates argued that government spending and regulations must be reduced to create a better environment for job creation. Baker suggested that a Republican should be elected governor in order to create "constructive friction" with the Democratic-controlled legislature that would yield new ideas. Fisher highlighted the need to end state spending on food stamps and other programs used by illegal immigrants.[42]

The debate turned toward a discussion of higher education costs in Massachusetts. Baker promoted solutions including three-year undergraduate programs, online education options and co-op programs at state universities. Fisher, the owner of a manufacturing firm, touted vocational education as a solution not only to college debt, but job preparation for graduates.[42]

Baker and Fisher shared conflicting views regarding the state's approach to gun violence. Baker suggested that smart-gun technology, which would require fingerprint identification before a gun can be discharged, should be available for gun owners. He also cited illegal weapons trafficking as a major issue facing the state. Fisher disagreed with Baker's assessment, suggesting that current laws are restrictive and only impact lawful gun owners.[42]

August 20 Democratic debate

Martha Coakley, Steve Grossman and Don Berwick discussed the Question 3 measure on casinos and gambling in Massachusetts during their debate at Stonehill College. Berwick differentiated himself from Coakley and Grossman by supporting Question 3, citing negative impacts on communities that host casinos. Coakley argued that she prefers other methods of economic growth, but revenue streams from casinos are used to strengthen programs to reduce gambling addiction. Grossman noted that casinos will add 15,000 jobs to the state when they open and will keep money from heading to casinos in other states.[43]

Coakley and Grossman took jabs at each other over campaign finances following a discussion of Texas Gov. Rick Perry's indictment for abuse of official capacity. Grossman branched off the question about Perry to point out a case where Coakley's office charged a lobbying firm with illegally charging a client for fees dependent on successful lobbying to the Massachusetts State Legislature. The attorney general announced that the Brennan Group, run by former state Sen. John Brennan, would pay $100,000 to the Franciscan Hospital for Children. Grossman noted that the settlement was far short of the $370,855 in fees paid to the group, and asked Coakley if Brennan was a donor to her campaign. Coakley answered that her campaign contributions were publicly available, and expressed opposition to unlimited funding through super PACs. Grossman's mother is the lead funding source for a super PAC that supports the gubernatorial candidate.[43]

Polls

General election
All candidates: October 2014

Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Five-way race: October 2014
Poll Martha Coakley Charlie BakerEvan FalchukJeff McCormickScott LivelyDon't know/ RefusedMargin of ErrorSample Size
UMass Amherst/WBZ
September 26-October 2, 2014
48%44%2%2%2%2%+/-5.5414
WBUR
October 1-4, 2014
41%39%2%2%1%15%+/-4.4504
The Boston Globe
October 5-7, 2014
39%34%3%2%2%20%+/-4.9400
WBUR
October 8-11, 2014
42%39%2%2%1%14%+/-4.4500
The Boston Globe
October 12-14, 2014
37%39%3%2%2%17%+/-4.9400
WBUR
October 15-18, 2014
42%43%1%2%1%10%+/-4.4501
The Boston Globe
October 19-21, 2014
37%46%3%2%2%8%+/-4.9400
UMass Lowell
October 21-25, 2014
41%45%3%2%1%8%+/-3.6601
WBUR
October 22-25, 2014
40%41%4%1%2%12%+/-4.4494
AVERAGES 40.78% 41.11% 2.56% 1.89% 1.56% 11.78% +/-4.6 468.22
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

All candidates through September 2014

Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Five-way race: Through September 2014
Poll Martha Coakley Charlie BakerEvan FalchukJeff McCormickScott LivelyDon't know/ RefusedMargin of ErrorSample Size
WBUR
September 16-21, 2014
43%34%2%1%1%19%+/-4.4502
UMass Amherst/WBZ
September 19-23, 2014
46%45%2%2%2%3%+/-4.4600
Western New England University Polling Institute
September 20-28, 2014
43%44%2%2%1%8%+/-4598
The Boston Globe
September 21-23, 2014
38%40%2%2%1%18%+/-4.9400
WBUR
September 24-27, 2014
41%38%1%2%1%17%+/-4.4503
The Boston Globe
September 25-28, 2014
43.8%43.2%2%1.6%0.4%9%+/-4500
SocialSphere
September 28-30, 2014
36%39%2%1%1%21%+/-4.89401
AVERAGES 41.54% 40.46% 1.86% 1.66% 1.06% 13.57% +/-4.43 500.57
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Four-way race
Poll Martha Coakley Charlie BakerEvan FalchukJeff McCormickDon't know/ RefusedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Western New England University Polling Institute
March 31-April 7, 2014
54%25%3%3%15%+/-5424
The Boston Globe
July 13-15, 2014
38%33%1%8%19%+/-5625
AVERAGES 46% 29% 2% 5.5% 17% +/-5 524.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Major-party candidates

Governor of Massachusetts 2014 - Coakley v. Baker
Poll Martha Coakley Charlie BakerIndependent/otherDon't know/RefusedMargin of ErrorSample Size
WBUR
September 11-14, 2014
44%35%15%6%+/-4.4504
The Boston Globe
September 14-16, 2014
39%36%6%19%+/-4.9407
Rasmussen Reports
September 16-17, 2014
42%42%5%10%+/-4750
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
September 20-October 1, 2014
47%41%1%11%+/-22,389
Rasmussen Reports
October 13-14, 2014
46%48%2%5%+/-3980
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
October 20-22, 2014
45%44%5%5%+/-4611
New York Times/CBS News/YouGov
October 16-23, 2014
45%41%1%13%+/-32,218
Emerson College Polling Society
October 26-29, 2014
42%48%4%6%+/-3.85627
AVERAGES 43.75% 41.88% 4.88% 9.38% +/-3.64 1,060.75
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Primary and hypothetical polls

Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Four-way race with Grossman
Poll Steve Grossman Charlie BakerEvan FalchukJeff McCormickDon't knowRefusedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Western New England University Polling Institute
March 31-April 7, 2014
38%29%4%9%19%1%+/-5424
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Democratic Primary
Poll Martha Coakley Steve GrossmanDon BerwickJoe AvelloneDan WolfJuliette KayyemUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling
(September 20-23, 2013)
57%10%6%4%3%2%17%+/-5.4324
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Democratic Primary
Poll Martha Coakley Steve GrossmanDon BerwickDon't knowMargin of ErrorSample Size
The Boston Globe
(July 13-15, 2014)
46%18%5%30%+/-5347
Suffolk University/Boston Herald
(August 2014)
42.3%30%15.7%12%+/-0400
University of Massachusetts-Lowell
(August 25-31, 2014)
52%20%9%19%+/-4.55685
AVERAGES 46.77% 22.67% 9.9% 20.33% +/-3.18 477.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Hypothetical Match-up: Charlie Baker vs. Democratic Candidates
Poll Charlie Baker Martha CoakleySteve GrossmanDonald BerwickJuliette KayyemNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
UMass-­Amherst Internet Poll of Massachusetts
March 31-April 6, 2014
34%45%0%0%0%21%+/-5.9500
UMass-­Amherst Internet Poll of Massachusetts
March 31-April 6, 2014
29%0%35%0%0%36%+/-5.9500
UMass-­Amherst Internet Poll of Massachusetts
March 31-April 6, 2014
32%0%0%29%0%37%+/-5.9500
UMass-­Amherst Internet Poll of Massachusetts
March 31-April 6, 2014
32%0%0%0%32%36%+/-5.9500
AVERAGES 31.75% 11.25% 8.75% 7.25% 8% 32.5% +/-5.9 500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

**Due to the nature of the comparison, a placeholder figure of 0% is assigned to candidates not included in any given match-up round

Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Hypothetical Match-ups - Republican Charlie Baker vs. Democratic candidates
Poll Charlie Baker Martha CoakleySteve GrossmanNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
January 2014 Special Edition Purple Poll Massachusetts Statewide
January 21-23, 2014
36%46%0%18%+/-4.4500
January 2014 Special Edition Purple Poll Massachusetts Statewide
January 21-23, 2014
35%0%34%31%+/-4.4500
AVERAGES 35.5% 23% 17% 24.5% +/-4.4 500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

**Due to the nature of the comparison, a placeholder figure of 0% is assigned to candidates not included in any given match-up round

Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Hypothetical Match-ups - Republican Mark Fisher vs. Democratic candidates
Poll Mark Fisher Martha CoakleySteve GrossmanNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
January 2014 Special Edition Purple Poll Massachusetts Statewide
January 21-23, 2014
30%50%0%20%+/-4.4500
January 2014 Special Edition Purple Poll Massachusetts Statewide
January 21-23, 2014
26%0%35%38%+/-4.4500
AVERAGES 28% 25% 17.5% 29% +/-4.4 500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

**Due to the nature of the comparison, a placeholder figure of 0% is assigned to candidates not included in any given match-up round

Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Hypothetical Match-ups - Republican Charlie Baker and Independents vs. Democratic candidates
Poll Charlie Baker Jeff McCormickEvan FalchukMartha CoakleySteve GrossmanDon BerwickJuliette KayyemJoe AvelloneAnother candidateUndecided/Refused/Won't voteMargin of ErrorSample Size
WBUR Poll: Governor's Race
January 16-19, 2014
29%3%1%39%0%0%0%0%2%26%+/-4.4504
WBUR Poll: Governor's Race
January 16-19, 2014
33%5%1%0%23%0%0%0%2%36%+/-4.4504
WBUR Poll: Governor's Race
January 16-19, 2014
36%8%2%0%0%13%0%0%2%40%+/-4.4504
WBUR Poll: Governor's Race
January 16-19, 2014
37%7%2%0%0%0%15%0%1%38%+/-4.4504
WBUR Poll: Governor's Race
January 16-19, 2014
36%8%2%0%0%0%0%13%2%39%+/-4.4504
AVERAGES 34.2% 6.2% 1.6% 7.8% 4.6% 2.6% 3% 2.6% 1.8% 35.8% +/-4.4 504
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

**Due to the nature of the comparison, a placeholder figure of 0% is assigned to candidates not included in any given match-up round

Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Hypothetical Match-ups - Republican Charlie Baker vs. Democratic candidates
Poll Charlie Baker (R)* Martha CoakleyMike CapuanoDon BerwickSteve GrossmanJoe AvelloneNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Poll
(September 20-23, 2013)
38%51%0%0%0%0%11%+/-4.0616
Public Policy Poll
(September 20-23, 2013)
37%0%0%42%0%0%21%+/-4.0616
Public Policy Poll
(September 20-23, 2013)
38%0%0%31%0%0%31%+/-4.0616
Public Policy Poll
(September 20-23, 2013)
37%0%0%0%38%0%25%+/-4.0616
Public Policy Poll
(September 20-23, 2013)
40%0%0%0%0%30%30%+/-4.0616
Western New England University
(October 1-7, 2013)
34%54%0%0%0%0%10%+/-5.0431
Western New England University
(October 1-7, 2013)
30%0%0%0%43%0%25%+/-5.0431
AVERAGES 36.29% 15% 0% 10.43% 11.57% 4.29% 21.86% +/-4.29 563.14
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

**Due to the nature of the comparison, a placeholder figure of 0% is assigned to candidates not included in any given match-up round

Governor of Massachusetts 2014 Hypothetical Match-ups with Various Republican Candidates
Poll Charlie Baker Evan FalchukJeff McCormickMartha CoakleySteve GrossmanJuliette KayyemDon BerwickJoe AvelloneUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
The Boston Globe
(May 29 - June 3, 2014)
32%2%7%37%0%0%0%0%22%+/-4.0602
The Boston Globe
(May 29 - June 3, 2014)
32%2%8%0%26%0%0%0%31%+/-4.0602
The Boston Globe
(May 29 - June 3, 2014)
36%2%7%0%0%20%0%0%36%+/-4.0602
The Boston Globe
(May 29 - June 3, 2014)
37%2%9%0%0%0%18%0%35%+/-4.0602
The Boston Globe
(May 29 - June 3, 2014)
36%2%9%0%0%0%0%17%36%+/-4.0602
AVERAGES 34.6% 2% 8% 7.4% 5.2% 4% 3.6% 3.4% 32% +/-4 602
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

**Due to the nature of the comparison, a placeholder figure of 0% is assigned to candidates not included in any given match-up round


Campaign media

General election

Charles Baker


Charlie Baker ad: "Caroline," September 10, 2014

Charlie Baker ad: "Delivers," September 26, 2014

Martha Coakley


Martha Coakley ad: "Plan," September 15, 2014

Martha Coakley ad: "Edward," October 2, 2014

Martha Coakley ad: "Everyone," October 20, 2014

Outside groups

Commonwealth Future PAC

Commonwealth Future ad: "Should Know," September 22, 2014

Commonwealth Future ad: "Vulnerable," October 1, 2014

Commonwealth Future ad: "Interests," October 20, 2014
Democratic Governors Association

DGA ad: "Charlie Baker, Award Winning Outsourcer," October 15, 2014

Primary election

Donald Berwick


Don Berwick ad: A Better Choice

Don Berwick ad: Play Politics

Martha Coakley


Martha Coakley ad: For Us

Steve Grossman


Steve Grossman ad: Limitless

Steve Grossman ad: Endorsed

Past elections

Margin of victory analysis

The average margin of victory in the past three races for governor was 10.4 percent. The smallest margin of victory was 4.8 percent in 2002, while the largest margin of victory was 20 percent in 2006. Percentages of votes for third-party candidates have increased from 6.4 percent in 2002 to 9.4 percent in 2010. The following chart compares the margin of victory for winners of gubernatorial races with the margin of victory for candidates who won the most votes for the top race on the ballot:[44]

Margin of victory analysis
Year Gov. candidate margin of victory (%) Party of winning candidate Top race on ballot Party of winning candidate Margin of victory (%)
2010 6.4 Democratic Party - - -
2006 20 Democratic Party U.S. Senate Democratic Party 37.4
2002 4.8 Republican Party U.S. Senate Democratic Party 55.6

2010

See also: Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2010
Massachusetts Gubernatorial/Lieutenant Gubernatorial, General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDeval Patrick/Tim Murray Incumbent 48.5% 1,112,283
     Republican Charles D. Baker/Richard R. Tisei 42.1% 964,866
     Independent Tim Cahill/Paul Loscocco 8% 184,395
     Green Jill Stein/Richard P. Purcell 1.4% 32,895
Total Votes 2,294,439
Election Results Via: Massachusetts Secretary of State

2006

Massachusetts Gubernatorial/Lieutenant Gubernatorial, General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDeval Patrick/Tim Murray 55% 1,234,984
     Republican Kerry Healey/Reed V. Hillman 35% 784,342
     Independent Christy Mihos/John J. Sullivan 6.9% 154,628
     Green Grace Ross/Martina Robinson 1.9% 43,193
     Blanks - 1.1% 24,056
     Nonpartisan Others 0.1% 2,632
Total Votes 2,243,835
Election Results Via: Massachusetts Secretary of State

2002

Massachusetts Gubernatorial/Lieutenant Gubernatorial, General Election, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMitt Romney/Kerry Healey 49.2% 1,091,988
     Democratic Shannon O'Brien/Christopher Gabrielli 44.4% 985,981
     Green Jill Stein/Anthony Lorenzen 3.4% 76,530
     Blanks - 1.2% 26,122
     Libertarian Carla Howell/Richard P. Aucoin 1% 23,044
     Independent Barbara Johnson/Joseph Schebel 0.7% 15,335
     Nonpartisan Others 0.1% 1,301
Total Votes 2,220,301
Election Results Via: Massachusetts Secretary of State

Voter turnout

Political scientist Michael McDonald's United States Elections Project studied voter turnout in the 2014 election by looking at the percentage of eligible voters who headed to the polls. McDonald used voting-eligible population (VEP), or the number of eligible voters independent of their current registration status, to calculate turnout rates in each state on November 4. He also incorporated ballots cast for the highest office in each state into his calculation. He estimated that 82,596,338 ballots were cast in the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, representing 36.4 percent of the VEP.[45] By comparison, 61.6 percent of VEP voted in the 2008 presidential election and 58.2 percent of VEP voted in the 2012 presidential election.[46]

Quick facts

  • According to PBS Newshour, voter turnout in the 2014 midterms was the lowest since the 1942 midterms, which took place during the nation's involvement in World War II.[47]
  • Forty-three states and the District of Columbia failed to surpass 50 percent turnout in McDonald's analysis.
  • The three states with the lowest turnout according to McDonald's analysis were Indiana (28 percent), Texas (28.5 percent) and Utah (28.8 percent).
  • Maine (59.3 percent), Wisconsin (56.9 percent) and Alaska (55.3 percent) were the three states with the highest turnout.
  • There were only 12 states that increased voter turnout in 2014 compared to the 2010 midterm elections.[48]
Voter turnout rates, 2014
State Total votes for top office  % voter eligible population Top statewide office up for election Size of lead (Raw votes) Size of lead (%)
Alabama 1,200,000 33.5 Governor 320,319 27.2
Alaska 290,000 55.3 Governor 4,004 1.6
Arizona 1,550,000 34.4 Governor 143,951 12.5
Arkansas 875,000 41.2 Governor 118,664 14
California 7,750,000 31.8 Governor 1,065,748 17.8
Colorado 2,025,000 53.0 Governor 50,395 2.4
Connecticut 1,089,880 42.3 Governor 26,603 2.5
Delaware 234,038 34.4 Attorney general 31,155 13.6
District of Columbia 150,000 30.3 Mayor 27,934 19
Florida 5,951,561 42.7 Governor 66,127 1.1
Georgia 2,575,000 38.2 Governor 202,685 8
Hawaii 366,125 36.2 Governor 45,323 12.4
Idaho 440,000 39.1 Governor 65,852 14.9
Illinois 3,550,000 39.5 Governor 171,900 4.9
Indiana 1,350,000 28.0 Secretary of state 234,978 17.8
Iowa 1,150,000 50.6 Governor 245,548 21.8
Kansas 875,000 42.8 Governor 33,052 3.9
Kentucky 1,440,000 44.2 U.S. Senate 222,096 15.5
Louisiana 1,472,039 43.8 U.S. Senate 16,401 1.1
Maine 625,000 59.3 Governor 29,820 4.9
Maryland 1,750,000 41.9 Governor 88,648 6.1
Massachusetts 2,150,000 43.9 Governor 40,361 1.9
Michigan 3,151,835 42.7 Governor 129,547 4.3
Minnesota 2,025,000 51.3 Governor 109,776 5.6
Mississippi 650,000 29.7 U.S. Senate 141,234 33
Missouri 1,450,000 32.3 Auditor 684,074 53.6
Montana 365,000 46.1 U.S. Senate 65,262 17.9
Nebraska 550,000 41.3 Governor 97,678 18.7
Nevada 600,000 31.8 Governor 255,793 46.7
New Hampshire 500,000 48.8 Governor 24,924 5.2
New Jersey 1,825,000 30.4 N/A N/A N/A
New Mexico 550,000 38.3 Governor 73,868 14.6
New York 3,900,000 28.8 Governor 476,252 13.4
North Carolina 2,900,000 40.7 U.S. Senate 48,511 1.7
North Dakota 248,670 43.8 U.S. House At-large seat 42,214 17.1
Ohio 3,150,000 36.2 Governor 933,235 30.9
Oklahoma 825,000 29.8 Governor 122,060 14.7
Oregon 1,500,000 52 Governor 59,029 4.5
Pennsylvania 3,500,000 36.1 Governor 339,261 9.8
Rhode Island 325,000 41.7 Governor 14,346 4.5
South Carolina 1,246,301 34.8 Governor 179,089 14.6
South Dakota 279,412 44.5 Governor 124,865 45.1
Tennessee 1,400,000 29.1 Governor 642,214 47.5
Texas 4,750,000 28.5 Governor 957,973 20.4
Utah 550,000 28.8 Attorney general 173,819 35.2
Vermont 193,087 38.8 Governor 2,095 1.1
Virginia 2,200,000 36.7 U.S. Senate 16,727 0.8
Washington 2,050,000 41.6 N/A N/A N/A
West Virginia 460,000 31.8 U.S. Senate 124,667 27.6
Wisconsin 2,425,000 56.9 Governor 137,607 5.7
Wyoming 168,390 38.7 Governor 52,703 33.6
United States 82,596,338 36.4

Note: Information from the United States Elections Project was last updated on November 19, 2014. The results in this table draw from unofficial results as of November 12, 2014.

Key deadlines

Deadline Event
May 6, 2014 Signature filing deadline for party candidates seeking federal or statewide office to file with Registrar of Voters
June 3, 2014 Deadline for political party candidates seeking federal or statewide office to file with Secretary of Commonwealth
July 29, 2014 Deadline for nonpartisan candidates seeking federal or statewide office to file with Registrar of Voters
August 26, 2014 Deadline for nonpartisan candidates seeking federal or statewide office to file with Secretary of Commonwealth
September 9, 2014 Primary election
November 4, 2014 General election
January 8, 2015 Inauguration day for governor and lieutenant governor
January 21, 2015 Inauguration day for other state executive officers

Ballotpedia reports

To learn more about developments in these races, check out the following news articles from Ballotpedia:

Recent news

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See also

External links

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References

  1. Boston.com, "Lt. Gov. Timothy P. Murray to resign, says controversies had nothing to do with his decision," May 22, 2013
  2. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Website, "Massachusetts Directory of Political Parties and Designations," accessed January 3, 2014
  3. The Boston Globe, Political Intelligence, "Martha Coakley launches bid for governor with handshakes and a video," September 16, 2013
  4. The Washington Post, "Republican Charlie Baker announces run for governor," September 4, 2013
  5. Boston.com, "Republican Charles Baker to announce Mass. gubernatorial bid Wednesday," accessed September 3, 2013
  6. Wicked Local, Newton resident Evan Falchuk announces 2014 gubernatorial run as United Independent candidate, February 25, 2013
  7. 7.0 7.1 Wicked Local, "Newton's Don Berwick announces run for governor," June 17, 2013
  8. The Republic/MassLive.com, "Jeffrey McCormick of Boston jumps into Massachusetts governors race as independent candidate," October 21, 2013
  9. Jeff McCormick for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed December 31, 2013
  10. Massachusetts Live, Anti-gay minister Scott Lively, of Springfield, running for governor, December 16, 2014
  11. WCVB.com, "Steve Grossman officially announces run for gov. at Mass. Dem. convention," July 13, 2013
  12. The Walpole Times, "Murray: Grossman's plans won't affect my decision on running for gub," January 7, 2013
  13. 13.0 13.1 Boston Globe, Baker holds off rival in GOP race for governor, March 22, 2014
  14. Boston Globe, Juliette Kayyem announces run for Mass. governor, August 21, 2013 (dead link)
  15. Joe Avellone for Governor, "Home," accessed April 14, 2013
  16. The Boston Herald, "Wolf, citing unresolved ethics complaint, exits gov’s race," October 22, 2013
  17. Cape Cod Times, "Wolf bows out of governor's race," October 21, 2013
  18. The Boston Globe, "US Rep. Capuano to run for re-election, not governor," September 26, 2013
  19. The Phoenix, "The Gathering Storm," November 7, 2012
  20. The Boston Globe, "Somerville Mayor Curtatone will not run for governor," October 17, 2013
  21. The Boston Herald, "Curtatone: Decision on gubernatorial race 'days away,'" September 27, 2013
  22. Boston Globe, "Patrick says he will serve out full term," January 4, 2011
  23. Boston Globe, "Grossman considering gun for governor in 2014," October 31, 2012
  24. Boston Globe, "Steve Grossman gets Democrats’ nod at convention," June 15, 2014
  25. The Boston Globe, Political Intelligence, "Martha Coakley launches bid for governor with handshakes and a video," September 16, 2013
  26. New York Times, "Massachusetts Democrat Wins Over Voters; Her Party Is a Different Story," June 13, 2014
  27. Boston.com, "Wolf vows to continue campaign despite ethics ruling on his ownership of Cape Air," accessed August 8, 2013
  28. CommonWealth Magazine, "Massachusetts Ethics Commission Ruling," accessed August 8, 2013
  29. 29.0 29.1 Cape Cod Times, "Ethics Commission considering exemption for Wolf," September 19, 2013. Retrieved September 19, 2013.
  30. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named wolfsays
  31. Dan Wolf for Governor 2014, "Press release: Resigning and Suspending Campaign Unless Ethics Commission Reconsiders," accessed August 23, 2013
  32. The Boston Herald, "Wolf, citing unresolved ethics complaint, exits gov’s race - See more at: http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/2013/10/wolf_citing_unresolved_ethics_complaint_exits_gov_s_race#sthash.Wyc0wMfq.dpuf," October 22, 2013
  33. Cape Cod Times, "Wolf bows out of governor's race," October 21, 2013
  34. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named bg
  35. The Washington Post, "Republican Charlie Baker announces run for governor," September 4, 2013
  36. Telegram, "Mass. GOP, Fisher spar in court over ballot access," April 11, 2014
  37. The Boston Globe, "Mark Fisher bullish on making GOP gubernatorial ballot," April 28, 2014
  38. Massachusetts Live, "Gubernatorial candidate Mark Fisher may sue Mass. Republican Party for ballot access," March 25, 2014
  39. Boston.com, "Campaign for Republican gubernatorial candidate threatens to sue state GOP," March 23, 2014
  40. 40.0 40.1 WBUR, "Governor Candidates Joust In Boston Debate," October 8, 2014
  41. 41.0 41.1 41.2 Sentinel & Enteprise, "GOVERNOR DEBATE: McCormick, Falchuk weigh in on casinos, energy policy," August 22, 2014
  42. 42.0 42.1 42.2 Sentinel & Enterprise, "GOVERNOR DEBATE: Baker, Fisher spar on jobs, gun control, higher ed," August 22, 2014
  43. 43.0 43.1 Lowell Sun, "Gov hopefuls debate pot, Perry, casinos," August 21, 2014
  44. Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, "Elections Division," accessed September 25, 2014
  45. United States Elections Project, "2014 November General Election Turnout Rates," November 7, 2014
  46. TIME, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low," November 10, 2014
  47. PBS, "2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years," November 10, 2014
  48. U.S. News & World Report, "Midterm Turnout Down in 2014," November 5, 2014