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Montana's at-large congressional district elections, 2012
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| November 6, 2012 |
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Steve Daines  |
Denny Rehberg |
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Steve Daines (R) won election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
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Primary: Montana has a mixed primary: Democrats hold an open primary, meaning any registered voter can vote in the party's primary, while Republicans hold a closed caucus, restricted to party members.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 11. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6.[2]
- See also: Montana elections, 2012
Incumbent: The contenders were battling for an open seat, as incumbent Denny Rehberg (R) was challenging current U.S. Senator Jon Tester (D) for his seat in the Senate.
Montana has a single at-large congressional district, which is made up of the entire state.
Partisan breakdown
Heading into the November 6 election, the Republican Party held the one Congressional seat from Montana.
| Members of the U.S. House from Montana -- Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2012 | After the 2012 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 0 | 0 | |
| Republican Party | 1 | 1 | |
| Total | 1 | 1 | |
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.
General election candidates
Democratic Primary
- Kim Gillan:25,077 state senator[3]
- Diane Smith:12,618 Businesswoman[4]
- Dave Strohmaier:11,366 Missoula City Council member[5]
- Rob Stutz:2,586 Attorney[6]
- Franke Wilmer:14,836 state representative[7]
- Sam Rankin:9,382 Real Estate Broker[8]
- Jason Ward:4,959 Contractor and Farmer[9]
- Kim Gillan:25,077 state senator[3]
Republican Primary
- Steve Daines:82,843 Businessman[10]
- Eric Brosten:21,012 Engineer and Author[11]
- Vincent Melkus:12,420 Student at Colorado Mesa University[12]
- Steve Daines:82,843 Businessman[10]
Libertarian candidate
Election Results
| U.S. House, Montana, At-Large District General Election, 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Kim Gillan | 42.7% | 204,939 | |
| Republican |  Steve Daines |
53.3% | 255,468 | |
| Libertarian | David Kaiser | 4% | 19,333 | |
| Total Votes | 479,740 | |||
| Source: Montana Secretary of State "2012 Election Center" | ||||
Race background
Montana's at-large District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[14]
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Montana's at-large congressional district has a PVI of R+7, which was the 145th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 51-49 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 61-40 percent over John Kerry (D).[15]
Polls
| Gillan vs. Daines | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | Public Policy Polling (September 10&11, 2012) | Mason-Dixon Polling (September 22, 2012) | Public Policy Polling (October 10, 2012) | Pharos Research Group (October 26-28, 2012) | Average | |||||||||
| Kim Gillan | 37% | 38% | 34% | 44.6% | 38.4% | |||||||||
| Steve Daines | 40% | 46% | 43% | 51.6% | 45.15% | |||||||||
| Other | 9% | 2% | 10% | 0% | 5.25% | |||||||||
| Undecided | 15% | 14% | 12% | 3.8% | 11.2% | |||||||||
| Number polled | 656 | 625 | 737 | 799 | 704.25 | |||||||||
| Margin of error | +/-3.8 | +/-4% | +/-3.6% | +/-3.5% | 3.73% | |||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
Campaign donors
Kim Gillan
| Kim Gillan (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[16] | March 31, 2012 | $95,346.99 | $66,592.12 | $(50,732.17) | $111,206.94 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[17] | May 24, 2012 | $111,206.94 | $36,317.76 | $(88,319.32) | $59,205.38 | ||||
| July Quarterly[18] | June 30, 2012 | $59,205.38 | $100,230.21 | $(71,529.93) | $87,905.66 | ||||
| October Quarterly[19] | October 15, 2012 | $87,905.66 | $377,276.33 | $(313,922.45) | $151,259.54 | ||||
| Pre-General[20] | October 25, 2012 | $151,259.54 | $63,638.97 | $(61,302.26) | $153,596.25 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $644,055.39 | $(585,806.13) | ||||||||
Steve Daines
| Steve Daines (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[21] | March 31, 2012 | $630,561.21 | $170,950.63 | $(75,092.52) | $726,419.32 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[22] | May 24, 2012 | $726,419.32 | $71,508.59 | $(54,681.13) | $743,246.78 | ||||
| July Quarterly[23] | June 30, 2012 | $743,246.78 | $173,255.29 | $(63,277.73) | $853,224.34 | ||||
| October Quarterly[24] | October 15, 2012 | $853,224.34 | $488,957.61 | $(985,271.46) | $356,910.49 | ||||
| Pre-General[25] | October 25, 2012 | $356,910.49 | $81,267.50 | $(317,019.35) | $121,158.64 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $985,939.62 | $(1,495,342.19) | ||||||||
District history
2010
On November 2, 2010, Denny Rehberg was re-elected to the United States House for a sixth term. He defeated Dennis McDonald (D), and Mike Fellows (Libertarian).[26]
| United States House, Montana General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Denny Rehberg Incumbent |
60.4% | 217,696 | |
| Democratic | Dennis McDonald | 33.8% | 121,954 | |
| Libertarian | Mike Fellows | 5.7% | 20,691 | |
| Total Votes | 360,341 | |||
See also
References
- ↑ Politico "2012 Election Map, Montana"
- ↑ Montana Secretary of State "Voter Information," Accessed July 25, 2012
- ↑ KAJ 18 "Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House," June 22, 2011
- ↑ Billings Gazette "Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race," November 3, 2011
- ↑ KPAX 8 "Strohmaier announces run for Congress," June 18, 2011
- ↑ KRTV 3 "Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House," August 10, 2011
- ↑ KRTV 3 "Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid," February 1, 2011
- ↑ Billings Gazette "Billings real estate agent joins U.S. House race" March 13, 2012
- ↑ Great Falls Tribune "Democrats battling GOP dominance for Montana's House seat" March 13, 2012
- ↑ KXLF "Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race," February 4, 2011
- ↑ Missoulian "Eric Brosten biography" March 13, 2012
- ↑ The Republic "Ex-Marine, Colorado college student files in Montana to run for Congress" March 13, 2012
- ↑ Missoulian "Democrat Rankin announces bid for U.S. House nomination" March 13, 2012
- ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" Accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Kim Gillan April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Kim Gillan Pre-Primary," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Kim Gillan July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Kim Gillan October Quarterly," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Kim Gillan Pre-General," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Steve Daines April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Steve Daines Pre-Primary," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Steve Daines July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Steve Daines October Quarterly," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Steve Daines Pre-General," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"
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