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Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

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2012

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Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
May 13, 2014

Incumbent prior to election:
Lee Terry Republican Party
Lee Terry.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean R[1]

FairVote's Monopoly Politics: Lean R[2]
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean R[3]


Nebraska U.S. House Elections
District 1District 2District 3

2014 U.S. Senate Elections

Flag of Nebraska.png
The 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska will hold an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014.

Nebraska is generally a Republican-leaning state, and Republicans currently hold all three of the U.S. House seats. Additionally, incumbent Lee Terry (R) has been in office since 1999.[4] The Cook Political Report rates Terry's seat as "Likely Republican," indicating that Terry is unlikely to face a highly competitive race in the general election.[5] However, Terry's ride to victory might not be as simple as it first appears. Terry won re-election in 2012 by a mere 1.6 percent margin of victory over his Democratic challenger, John Ewing. In addition, Terry did not receive overwhelming support in the May 13, 2014, Republican primary. Whereas Democratic candidate Brad Ashford easily defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary, Terry finished just 5.6 percent above his primary challenger, Dan Frei. One general election poll even showed Terry and Ashford tied with 41 percent each. Nonetheless, Terry maintains an advantage over Ashford in campaign finances, and this could be a huge factor in Terry's success. As of the April Quarterly Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, Terry had $762,450.19 cash on hand compared to Ashford's $73,847.86.

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 3, 2014
May 13, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: Nebraska is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. A blanket primary system is used for the nonpartisan legislature and some other statewide races while congressional primary elections are closed.[6]

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by either April 25, 2014, by mail or carrier, or by May 2, 2014, in person. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 17, 2014.[7]

See also: Nebraska elections, 2014

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent is Lee Terry (R), who was first elected in 1998.

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes Douglas county and part of Sarpy county.[8]

Candidates

General election candidates


May 13, 2014, primary results

Republican Party Republican Primary

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian Primary

Withdrew from race

Declined to run


Election results

Primary results

U.S. House, Nebraska District 2 Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngLee Terry Incumbent 52.8% 25,025
Dan Frei 47.2% 22,339
Total Votes 47,364
Source: Results via Associated Press Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.
U.S. House, Nebraska District 2 Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBrad Ashford 81.3% 16,233
Mark Aupperle 18.7% 3,739
Total Votes 19,972
Source: Results via Associated Press Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.
U.S. House, Nebraska District 2 Libertarian Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngSteven Laird 60.3% 76
Andy Shambaugh 39.7% 50
Total Votes 126
Source: Results via Associated Press Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.

Polls

General election polls

General election candidates
Poll Lee Terry Brad AshfordSteven LairdUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (August 14, 2014)
46%45%0%9%+/-4.7432
Global Strategy Group (May 29 and June 1, 2014)
41%41%4%0%+/-4.9400
AVERAGES 43.5% 43% 2% 4.5% +/-4.8 416
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

*Note: A response of "0%" has been entered for options that were not measured in a given poll. This may throw off averages in those columns.

Republican primary polls

Lee Terry vs. Dan Frei
Poll Lee Terry Dan FreiUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
JMC Analytics and Polling (April 7-8, 2014)
40%26%34%+/-4%[15]599
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

*Note: This poll was commissioned by Dan Frei, and was an automated phone poll, which may be less reliable than live polls.

Race background

2012 election

The 2012 election in Nebraska's second district was a close race, with incumbent Lee Terry securing re-election by a 1.1 percent margin of victory. The district was evaluated as leaning Republican, receiving a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) rating of R+6 from The Cook Political Report.[16] Terry was hindered by a favorability rating of only 37 percent and a voter job approval of 49 percent, as well as the support his opponent John Ewing received from the House Majority PAC, which spent $30,000 on television ads in his favor.[17] Lee Terry was able to outspend his opponent, spending approximately three times the amount of money Ewing did.[18]

Splitting the Republican vote

Although he ran as an Independent in the general election, Chip Maxwell was known to be a tea-party Republican, and he claimed that he would reunite with the Republican Party if elected to Congress. This decision led Republicans to fear that Maxwell would split the vote, paving Democrat Brad Ashford's road to success. Maxwell responded to this concern by stating, "If Ashford wins, it will be due to the-party-is-our-private-club Republicans who refuse to face the reality that it’s time to quit supporting an incumbent who is not the kind of Republican we need in the battle to get the country back on track."[19] Dan Frei, who lost to Lee Terry in the Republican primary, refused to endorse Terry, stating that he would endorse a different conservative. This comment led to speculations that Frei and Maxwell had been working together, although Maxwell emphasized that Frei had no idea that he would be running.[20]

On July 24, 2014, Maxwell withdrew from the race in order to ensure that he did not split the vote with incumbent Lee Terry, as he did not want to increase Democrat Brad Ashford's chances of taking the Republican seat.[21]

Congressional salary cuts

On August 11, 2014, Brad Ashford (D) and incumbent Lee Terry (R) discussed the possibility of instituting pay cuts for congressmen. Ashford stated, "I'm proposing we do cut our salary by 10 percent."[22] In addition, Ashford promised that, if elected, he would give 10 percent of his pay back even if cuts were not passed. Terry disagreed with Ashford and maintained that congressmen were not being overpaid, saying, "What he's not telling you is that Congress hasn't had a cost of living increase since 2008, when I led the charge for a freeze." Terry added that he donated at least 10 percent of his paycheck to charity already.[22]

Key votes

Government affairs

HR 676

See also: Boehner's lawsuit against the Obama administration

Yea3.png On July 30, 2014, the U.S. House approved a resolution 225 to 201 to sue President Barack Obama for exceeding his constitutional authority. Five Republicans--Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Paul Broun of Georgia, Scott Garrett of New Jersey, Walter Jones of North Carolina and Steve Stockman of Texas-- voted with Democrats against the lawsuit.[23] Terry joined the other 224 Republicans in favor of the lawsuit. All Democrats voted against the resolution.[24][25]

Campaign contributions

Lee Terry

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Terry's reports.[26]

Lee Terry (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[27]April 14, 2013$20,987.65$207,733.42$(50,260.37)$178,460.70
July Quarterly[28]July 15, 2013$178,460.70$247,099$(54,599.35)$370,960.35
October Quarterly[29]October 14, 2013$370,960.35$388,963.74$(201,416.32)$558,507.77
Year-End Quarterly[30]December 31, 2013$558,507$338,066$(81,289)$818,310
April Quarterly[31]April 15, 2014$818,310.62$197,423.32$(253,283.75)$762,450.19
Running totals
$1,379,285.48$(640,848.79)

Dan Frei

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Frei's reports.[32]

Dan Frei (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[33]January 27, 2014$0.00$12,710.00$(6,475.72)$6,234.28
April Quarterly[34]April 15, 2014$6,234.00$26,900.50$(14,332.90)$18,801.60
Running totals
$39,610.5$(20,808.62)

Brad Ashford

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Ashford's reports.[35]

Brad Ashford (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[36]April 14, 2014$0.00$89,405.31$(15,557.45)$73,847.86
Running totals
$89,405.31$(15,557.45)

Media

Lee Terry

In a campaign ad released in May 2014, Lee Terry emphasizes his efforts to repeal Obamacare.[37]


Lee Terry 2014 campaign ad

District history

Candidate ballot accecss
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2012

See also: Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2012

The 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Incumbent Lee Terry won re-election in the district.[38]

U.S. House, Nebraska District 2 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic John Ewing 49.2% 129,767
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLee Terry Incumbent 50.8% 133,964
Total Votes 263,731
Source: Nebraska Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Lee Terry won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Tom White (D) in the general election.[39]

United States House, Nebraska District 2, General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLee Terry incumbent 60.8% 93,840
     Democratic Tom White 39.2% 60,486
Total Votes 154,326

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for August 8, 2014," accessed August 25, 2014
  2. FairVote's Monopoly Politics, "2014 House Projections," accessed August 25, 2014
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed August 25, 2014
  4. Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "TERRY, Lee Raymond, (1962 - )," accessed July 2, 2014
  5. The Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for June 26, 2014," accessed July 1, 2014
  6. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  7. Nebraska Secretary of State Website, "Voter Information Frequently Asked Questions," accessed January 3, 2014
  8. Nebraska Redistricting Map "Map" accessed August 29, 2012
  9. 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 Nebraska Secretary of State, Statewide Candidate List for May 13, 2014 Primary Election," accessed May 11, 2014
  10. Omaha.com, "Republican Dan Frei will take on Lee Terry in District 2", accessed November 5, 2013
  11. The Green Papers, "The Green Papers: What's New? First Quarter (Jan - Mar) 2014", accessed February 20, 2014
  12. Nebraska Watchdog, "Tea party’s Maxwell turns Omaha House race upside down," accessed May 23, 2014
  13. Nebraska Watchdog, "It’s official: Tea partyer Maxwell won’t challenge GOP’s Lee Terry," accessed July 28, 2014
  14. Watchdog.org, "Festersen out of Congressional race, Democrats wonder who’s in", accessed December 9, 2013
  15. Omaha, "'Undecideds' in poll excite campaign of Lee Terry challenger Dan Frei," accessed April 10, 2014
  16. Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008," accessed March 2013
  17. Omaha.com, "Ewing makes big gains against Terry in 2nd District race" accessed March 2013
  18. Open Secrets, "2012 Race: Nebraska District 02" accessed March 2013
  19. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named wd
  20. Omaha, "'I have a plan to save the country': Chip Maxwell to run against Lee Terry," accessed May 23, 2014
  21. Nebraska Watchdog, "It’s official: Tea partyer Maxwell won’t challenge GOP’s Lee Terry," accessed July 28, 2014
  22. 22.0 22.1 KMTV Action 3 News, "Ashford wants congressional pay slashed; Terry says not so fast," accessed August 13, 2014
  23. U.S. House, "House Resolution 676," accessed July 30, 2014
  24. Yahoo News, "Suing Obama: GOP-led House gives the go-ahead," accessed July 30, 2014
  25. Washington Post, "House clears way for lawsuit against Obama," accessed July 30, 2014
  26. Federal Election Commission, "Terry 2014 Summary reports," accessed July 18, 2013
  27. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed July 18, 2013
  28. FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed July 18, 2013
  29. FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 25, 2013
  30. FEC, "Year-End Quarterly," accessed February 12, 2014
  31. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed April 13, 2014
  32. Federal Election Commission, "Dan Frei Summary Report," accessed April 30, 2014
  33. Federal Election Commission, "Dan Frei Year-End," accessed April 30, 2014
  34. Federal Election Commission, "Dan Frei April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
  35. Federal Election Commission, "Brad Ashford Summary Report," accessed May 13, 2014
  36. Federal Election Commission, "Brad Ashford April Quarterly," accessed May 13, 2014
  37. YouTube, "Andrea's Story: 'Obamacare is not good for my family'," accessed May 5, 2014
  38. Politico, "2012 Election Map, Nebraska"
  39. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013